Paul Saffo Six Rules for Effective Forecasting Full Summary in Free Essay

* Forecasting is an impartial strategic ingredient that will ensure apt base for reputable planning. Our forecast is always the first step in developing plans in running the business along with our future plans of growth strategies. With this tool, we are able to anticipate our sales within reason that then can allow for us to control our costs in conjunction with inventory which will then help us to enhance our customer service. Sales forecasting is a vital strategic tactic in our company’s methodology.

Forecasting is used in all businesses. Forecasting is used to help businesses decide how much they should produce and where to sell a product. Forecasting can aid a company in knowing the lifecycle of a product, which can help them to determine when and if they should discontinue a product. Forecasting can also help managers close the gap between supply and demand. If a forecast is properly predicted the supply of a product can satisfy the demand of the product. Forecasting is not always accurate however, and can lead to either over production of a product or underproduction of a product.

Economics is often called the "science of decision making." The decisions that economists analyze range from personal decisions such as how big a pizza to order or whether to buy or lease a new car to the decisions the federal government makes about things like the size of our military. Economists use information about these, and other decisions, to develop indicators that can be used to determine the health of our economy. Just as a physician relies on indicators such as temperature, blood pressure and heart rate to determine the health of a patient, economists use indicators like gross domestic product growth, the unemployment rate and the rate of inflation to predict our

Makridakis, S., Wheelwright, S. C. & Hyndman, R. J. (1998). Forecasting Methods and Applications, (3rd Edition). New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Peter Drucker, an American Businessman once said, “The best way to predict the future is to create it”.

When people ask me what my dream profession is, I proudly claim I am going to be a meteorologist. More often than not, I will get a response of “oh, so a weather-guesser?” While it is true that the public has a slight disfavor with weather forecasters seeing that weather predictions are too frequently incorrect. This knowledge, contrastingly, does not deter me from pursuing an education in this field.

There are already mechanisms in place that are used to predict high and low years for weather temperatures and rainfall. In 1997, prior to the El Nino in 1997-1998 (called El Nino 97/98), the scientific community was able to surveil and predict its occurrence, thus giving weather researchers and their science, credibility by the public and those who make decisions. (Below is a historical table of all recorded El Nino events).

The proof of knowing that alien life exists would cause several emotions in all sorts of people. Many would be scared, some thrilled, and others ready to fight back. Releasing the message could cause turmoil within daily lives and life as we know it would be forever changed. Another reason to keep the message under raps would be to keep people from sending a message back. The International Academy of Astronautics has protocols in place that prohibited anyone who receives a message to respond to it, but these are just protocols and not actual law. The practicality of stopping someone with the right technology would be close to impossible. These feelings are all brought up because we just do not know what alien life would bring us. It could be unimaginable technology, or it could be destruction and ruin. Taking a chance on either one is a big

The first point that the article makes is to state that while theoretically plausible, forecasting

remain subdued, and the unemployment rate is probably to rise to a higher level in a

But even this is not possible in case of a new product or innovation. A forecast of sales, demand, cash, requirements and several such business valuables are extremely essential for a business in order to be able to appropriately plan and conduct its operations in an effective and efficient manner. Yet, forecasts cannot be made accurately as there are several factors and changes in the current environment that leads to variations in forecasts and impacts or causes a manager to make changes in the forecasts.

Forecasters use these mental maps to organize their observations of directional information. Since innovations rarely apply to the entire marketplace, information must be tagged for the appropriate price point, category and classification. In this way, forecasters turn random bits of data into useful information for decision support, points and style directions.

Forecasting ultimately benefits businesses in decision-making, planning, and budgeting. Forecasting is heavily dependent on the company’s ability to make

Business forecasting is the process of studying historical performance for the purpose of using the information gained to project future business conditions so that decisions can be made today that will assist in the achievement of certain goals. Forecasting involves taking historical date and using it to project future data with a mathematical model. Forecasts are extensively used to support business decisions and direct the work of operations managers. In this paper I will introduce different types of forecasting techniques.

Forecasting is a fundamental part of an economist’s profession. With trends and theories, they predict an economy’s future and use that knowledge to prepare for problems that might interfere with an economy’s well being; however, not all economic issues can be anticipated. Natural disasters can wreak havoc on economies and can appear without any warning. Earthquakes especially take a toll on a country’s economy. Unlike other natural disasters, earthquakes have no warnings and have thousands of aftershocks following the initial quake, which decelerates recovery and reconstruction (Donovan, & Elliott, 2012). Fiscal policy can be used to counteract economic issues like these, but whether these efforts have an affect on the economy as a whole are uncertain.