Pitfalls in Evaluating Risky Projects

Moreover, Robert Gates’ estimation of the price increase (2.0%) differs from the information provided in the case (1.7%). This overestimates revenue and thereby FCF. To make better projections for the firms’ FCF, Robert Gates would also have to consider the opportunity cost of alternative investments, the risk exposure throughout the project and operational risks after three years.

At the new WACC of 19%, the home appliance and agricultural machinery projects are valued based on their inherent levels of risk. The beta of the industry average home appliance project is 0.95, whereas the beta for the industry average agricultural machine project is calculated as 0.88. CAPM was then employed to find the cost of capital of each project. The cost of capital for the home appliance and agricultural machinery projects were found to be 10.4% and 9.92%, respectively (Appendix B). This analysis allows Star Company to allocate funds to projects that create returns greater than the industry cost of capital for each specific project.

The probability of making the new program success is the expected outcomes and the standard deviation of the probability distribution for developing the new program is larger with few uncertainty, hence the greater risk. However, we take lower risk particularly exposed to uncertainty, so plan risk adverse selection and attempt to reduce that uncertainty by carefully evaluating the risks and expected returns of the projects. We documented the evaluation based on the risk appetite guidance. This way we can provide evidence that based on the information available at the time and concluded risk derived the decision using mean-variance

Hypothetical Answer: It would be a huge loss if the new projects undertaken would not yield a good rate of return. The rate of return on invested capital is the most important thing and maximizing shareholder value is the most important thing. Would you help in this decision making process so I do not take on risky

Many risks are interrelated. Analyze the following compound risk: Unstable requirements with tight budget will likely cancel the project. Discuss the dependencies that exist between the two risks.

Star Appliance is looking to expand their product line and is considering three different projects: dishwashers, garbage disposals, and trash compactors. We want to determine which project would be worth doing by determining if they will add value to Star. Thus, the project(s) that will add the most value to Star Appliance will be worth pursuing. The current hurdle rate of 10% should be re-evaluated by finding the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Then by forecasting the cash flows of each project and discounting them by the WACC to find the net present value, or by solving for the internal rate of return, we should be able to see which projects Star should undertake.

Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis of factors such as the cost of raw materials, selling price per unit and capacity utilization demonstrates that a small change in any one of these variables could have a major impact on the project’s bottom line. In Appendix B, I examine a scenario in which the selling price per unit decreases by 1% and the cost of raw materials per unit increases by 1% at the outset of the project. In this scenario, the resulting NPV changes from a positive $5.4 million to a loss of $666,000, and the IRR falls below the discount rate to 9.15%. This, to me, reveals that the potential upside of this project is not large enough to account for discrepancies due to imprecise projections, flawed assumptions, or unforeseen risks.

If Lars decides to invest around $6 million more in research and development, it is highly risky as the company’s survival depends largely on the success of the launch of Ray’s new product into the market.

When considering the proposed advertising program and technology upgrades, we have to ensure that the project will likely add value to the company, so we need to consider the return on investment versus the cost of capital. If the return on investment, measured by the net present value and internal rate of return, exceeds the cost of capital, the investment should be taken.

Without the ability to rank the projects based off of cash flows solely, we had to use some analytical criteria as a capital budgeting analyst to provide some thorough support and reasoning for how we ranked the four best projects. In this case we are only using quantitative considerations that we deem to be relevant and no other project characteristics are deciding factors in our selection of the best four projects. When coming up with our calculations to rank

In order to perform project risk management effectively, the organization or the department must know the meaning of the risk clearly. With regards to a project, the management must focus on the potential effects on the objectives of the project, for example, cost and time (Loosemore, Raftery and Reilly, 2006). Risk is a vulnerability that really matters; it can influence the objectives of the project

This question turns to a summary of the adjustments needed to produce an acceptable DCF analysis.

In addition to reading the course notes, I also looked at what APMBOK (Association for Project Management, Body of Knowledge 2009, 6th Edition, UK) said about this critical area of Project Management. Additionally, I researched what my Company does to maximize their effectiveness in this area by studying their attitude towards Risk Management throughout the complete life-cycle of a project, and finally I drew from my own knowledge and experiences in this critical area.

In their research study, Souder & Myles (2010) identify that risk is chiefly fundamental to investing. Böhringer & Löschel (2008) further add that there is no discussion of returns or performance that is deemed meaningful in the absence of at least some mention of the involved risk. However, the trouble for investors, who have just entered into the marketplace, involves the process of figuring where risk really lies, as well as what the difference between the various levels of risks. Relating to the manner, in which risk is fundamental to investments, a significant number of new

The following paper analyzes a project from financial perspectives using the capital budgeting techniques like Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR).