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Planning Fallacy And The Fallacy

Decent Essays

What is the Planning Fallacy? The planning fallacy falsely estimates how much we can actually accomplish. The fallacy is rooted behind false confidence, and mistakes that sometimes go unacknowledged. Because of that, the person, along with their high self esteem, makes predictions based on false evidence then fails. An individual wants a certain outcome and knows they will get to that end goal, but still manages to refuse reality and forget to take into consideration the larger picture. For example a person who’s moving to a new home might estimate that it will only take a day or two to pack their belongings. In reality it takes a week to a month; he or she predicted it will take less time and energy.

When do people commit it? Individuals commit this fallacy when assigned a certain task and wanting a desired outcome but then still ignores the reality of attaining it.The individual from the example above committed the fallacy when they wanted packing and moving to take less time, thus refusing counter evidence and prior experience. Instead the person should have looked at past experiences with moving then make judgments. If in the past it did only take a day, then they probably lived on a shoebox.

When is it exposed as a fallacy? What is the mistake in reasoning exactly? The reason it is a fallacy is because even when planning and expecting the wanted result, the outcome is usually a failure. Moreover this mistake is constantly repeated. It is important to note that

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