Planting Date Tailored For Enso Based Climate Variability Risk Using Cropgro Soybean Model

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PLANTING DATE TAILORED FOR ENSO-BASED CLIMATE VARIABILITY RISK USING CROPGRO-SOYBEAN MODEL

INTRODUCTION
Brazil has become the second-largest producer of soybean in the world after the United States. Projections to the year 2020 indicate the country’s soybean production will increase to 105 million tons, mainly due to Brazil’s large expanse of arable land with potential to be used for agriculture. This expansion of soybean production will occur mainly in the North and Northeast parts of the country (Viana et al., 2013). For example, in the past decade the Para State, Northern Brazil, has seen phenomenal expansion of soybean crop in area and production. Area under soybean cultivation has steadily increased over the years from 2 thousands
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The phase of major water demand are flowering and early pod formation and remains high until physiological maturity (Hu and Wiatrak, 2011). The occurrence of heavy rainfall in the final period of crop season also represent an important factor limiting crop yield, mainly in soybean production regions of the Amazon, where the weather patterns, including high temperature and humidity, and the potential for daily rainfall, can create a near-perfect environment for the outbreak of fungal diseases and accelerating degradation process of grain causing great losses in the production quality (Fraisse et al., 2007).
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the one various oceanic-atmospheric phenomena that influence the weather pattern of many place around of the world, affecting significantly crops production (Rojas et al., 2014).This phenomenon is characterized basically by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. When SST is higher (lower) than normal the phenomenon is referred to as El Niño (La Niña) or warm (cold) events (Fraisse et al., 2007). According recent studies, the Amazon region has showed a strong ENSO signal, particularly in the northeastern in austral summer and autumn (Li et al., 2011, Yoon and Zeng, 2010, Garreaud et al., 2008), coinciding with the growing season of the most important crops as a soybean (Sousa et al., 2011). During these period, El Niño (La Niña) years tend to be drier (wetter) than
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