Predicting The Future Of The Election Before The Voting Deadline Of November 8th

How well do you know the candidate you’re voting for, could they destroy our country? There are two groups that make it to the ballot, Democrats and Republicans. The Democrat candidates are Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. The Republican candidates are Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, and John Kasich. Every candidate has things you might disagree with but they might have things you like, you should vote on the one you think is the lesser of two evils based on them and not a bias opinion. I took the time to find where they stand on three topics, immigrants, abortion, and guns. There are many more issues that they stand, I just want to give you a general idea so you can vote when you’re educated on the topic. Here are the candidates and where each individual stands.

Undoubtedly, the last 80 years have brought the biggest change to the election process - polling. Beginning with the Gallup poll in 1936, the industry has become a titanic business, growing unregulated by the United States government. Frequently, polls have come under fire for their inaccuracy, or for their role in blocking the Democratic process (the 2000 and 2004 elections come to mind). Nonetheless, the 1992 election was not notable because of alleged bias, but because of what the polls said about

The 1980 presidential election of the United States featured three primary candidates, Republican Ronald Reagan, Democrat Jimmy Carter and liberal Republican John Anderson. Ronald Reagan was the governor of California before he decided to run for the presidency. John Anderson was a representative in Illinois and Carter was the incumbent. The lengthy Iran hostage crisis sharpened public opinions by the beginning of the election season. In the 1970s, the United States were experiencing a straining episode of low economic growth, high price increases and interest rates and an irregular energy crisis. The sense of discomfort in both domestic and foreign affairs in the nation were heading downward, this added to the downward spiral that was already going on. Between Carter, Anderson and Reagan, the general election campaign of the 1980s seemed more concerned with shadowboxing around political issues rather than a serious discussion of the issues that concerned voters.

The midterm elections in Texas were something very big this year. This year was the year that the current governor, Rick Perry, would not seek a fourth term. Greg Abbott, real name, Gregory Wayne Abbott, won the midterm election for governor and will take office in January 20, 2015.

Assess the extent to which incumbents have an adage over challengers in congressional elections. (25marks)

This recent election that took place on November 8, 2016 included candidate Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Towards the beginning of the election the results seemed that Hillary would win and was taking

Although Burr was never able to reach 50% in the polls, he exceeded that threshold on Election Day and defeated Ross by almost 6%. In order to analyze the political climate further, I will be comparing the exit polls for both Trump vs. Clinton and Burr vs Ross. This will help explain why Ross was entering the Senate race with a disadvantage despite media pundits arguing that higher turnout in presidential election years should benefit Ross. Although Five Thirty Eight gave Clinton the slight edge to defeat Trump in North Carolina, Trump’s was able to carry the state with a modest performance. Although Real Clear Politics had Burr winning by an average of 2%, that was certainly below the 5.7% final result. In a three way race between Trump, Clinton, and Johnson, Trump was predicted to win North Carolina by about 1%. The actual results, however, showed Trump winning by about 4%. Although this paper is focusing on the Senate race, it’s certainly important to note the impact that a presidential candidate can have on the electoral map, particularly

When the words “swing state” are mentioned, Florida is perhaps one of the first states a person may think of. In this year’s election cycle, the story is no different. Florida has a single senate seat up for election, and Marco Rubio (R), and Patrick Murphy (D) are hoping to claim it on November 8th. Marco Rubio has held that seat since the last senate election in 2010, giving him an edge as the incumbent. Patrick Murphy is the challenger and has been a member of the House of Representatives since 2012. A glance at any polling numbers shows Rubio ahead, and most have shown him ahead since the beginning of the race. The polls do not show a commanding lead, as one may expect from an incumbent. While polling margins are slimmer than many average incumbents, money has not stopped flowing to Rubio. His finances are typical of an incumbent particularly that of a closely contested race. It may be impossible to tell which has the greater effect of Rubio’s fundraising. In states that are typically swing states and have close political races, simple analyses such as incumbency advantage may not fully explain the results and polls in the race.

The legacy and lessons of Truman’s whistle-stop campaign continue to be studied by political analysts, and politicians today often mimic his campaign methods by scheduling multiple visits to key states, as Truman did. He visited California, Illinois, and Ohio 48 times, compared with 6 visits to those states by Dewey. Political scientist Thomas M. Holbrook concludes that his strategic campaigning in those states and others gave Truman the electoral votes he needed to win (61, 65). The 1948 election also had an effect on pollsters, who, as Elmo Roper admitted, “couldn’t have been more wrong” (qtd. in Karabell 255). Life magazine’s editors concluded that pollsters as well as reporters and commentators were too convinced of a Dewey victory to analyze the polls seriously, especially the opinions of undecided voters (Karabell 256). Pollsters assumed that undecided voters would vote in the same proportion as decided voters — and that turned out to be a false assumption (Karabell 258). In fact, the lopsidedness of the polls might have led voters who supported Truman to call themselves undecided out of an unwillingness to associate themselves with the losing side, further skewing the polls’ results (McDonald, Glynn, Kim, and Ostman 152). Such errors led pollsters to change their methods significantly after the 1948 election. After the election, many political analysts, journalists, and historians concluded

What factors are most accurate in predicting the outcome of a presidential election? In the book The Gamble, by John Sides and Lynn Vavreck, the factors of choice and chance answer this question through analysis of the 2012 presidential election. The term choice refers to the factors that the candidate has no control over, such as what the media chooses to cover and what the campaign chooses to make stances on. Adversely, chance is what the candidate has no control over, such as the state of the economy and partisanship. Sides and Vavreck refer to chance factors as fundamentals. I will argue that the economy plays the greatest role in deciding presidential elections. Campaigns and media are secondary to the economy and underlying voter partisanship, due to their inconsequential effect on voters. I will argue that chance is more important than choice from the evidence provided in the The Gamble, by John Sides and Lynn Vavreck, and Partisan Biases in Economic Accountability, by Larry Bartels. Political scientists evaluate and debate the role of choice versus the role of chance in predicting presidential elections. The economy and partisanship are superior at predicting presidential elections because the fleeting effects of media, the tug-of-war campaigns, strong voter partisanship, and myopic voters.

Take two minutes of your life to learn about another option for the November election. I personally have no idea who I am voting for, I don't care who you are voting for, but I do ask you to take a few minutes and make sure you give everyone a chance and verify that their views co-inside with those that matter to you. If someone that you want to see doesn't make it on the November ballot, you can always write in their full legal name as to make your vote count.

The atmosphere is a chaotic system, so small changes to one part of the system can grow to have large effects on the system as a whole. This makes it difficult to accurately predict weather more than a few days in advance, though weather forecasters are continually working to extend this limit through the scientific study of weather, meteorology. It is theoretically impossible to make useful day-to-day predictions more than about two weeks ahead, imposing an upper limit to potential for improved prediction skill.

When I drew up this map on Friday, there was a part of me that was hoping to be proven wrong on election day. At the same time, the plausibility of a Republican win was in the realm of possibility for me because of the people I have seen supporting the now president-elect.

In this news article was published by CNN and the writer Heather Long talks about a model called Moody's Analytics. A model used a data and information from both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. All the data generate and the Moody could predict who is gonna win on U.S Presidential Election. Moody analysis the winning percentage of a candidate. It shows that Moody favors Hillary of winning the election because it detects that she has better economic policies and also she has coalesced with the Former President Obama. Obama has a huge number of a follower who is likely to vote Clinton in this upcoming election. “The economy and Obama's rising popularity are likely to make the difference to those coveted few undecided voters, according to the Moody's model.” Long (paragraph) This a bold statement that not all voters or Obama follower are going to vote for Clinton.

The Australian Federal Election in 2013 was a colossal victory for the conservative Liberal-National Coalition. The two major competitors were the centre-left progressive Australian Labor Party, led by Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, and the right-wing conservative Liberal-National Coalition, led by Liberal MP Tony Abbott. The outcome of the election was dictated by many long and short-term factors, including multiple leadership changes, bad history with parties, broken election promises, new policies appealing to a larger viewpoint and voter confusion. Many of these issues went unresolved by the Labor Party and resulted in the Liberal-National Victory.