Project Evaluation And Review Technique Essay

714 Words3 Pages
Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) and Critical Path Method (CPM) decision support systems are widely used for projects management. Traditional PERT relies on engine called stochastic analysis that focuses on managing schedules for stochastic project environment. Therefore, the estimated schedule is highly stochastic. A good approximation in beta distribution is obtained only when cv ≤ 0.66. But it is found that 80% of the projects violate the approximation limit that is provided by the beta distribution calculation of PERT. Beta distribution generally reliance on subjective estimates, underestimates stochastic variations. PERT engine with simulation is combined with risk registers to discover disruptive events. Modern project management DSS do not include PERT or CPM in estimating schedule. But PERT still has room for improvement in scheduling. Thus, the improved version of PERT, neglecting all the limitation stated above is proposed in the paper (PERT 21). PERT 21 uses stochastic engine to achieve valid stochastic schedules. PERT 21 do not require excessive user inputs and provides valid risk analysis. PERT 21 ensures calibrated estimation using historical data and models stochastically-dependent processing times by lognormal distribution with linear association. As per Central Limit Theorem (CLT), more random variables yield a perfect lognormal approximation in estimating the sum of independent random variables. But, it provides negative results when the
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