Real And Nominal Gdp Forecast

The health of the current U.S. economy appears to be growing gradually. The second quarter real GDP growth was 3.7% and the unemployment rate declined to 5.3%. The U.S Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to raise interest rates in the near future when it sees clear signs of strong economic growth and improvements in the job market.

The news informs everyone on a daily basis that the United States has the largest economy and that it is looking to be in great shape since four years ago. To some Americans it seems otherwise. The unemployment rate in 2007 was 4.6% compared to unemployment rate in 2012 at 7.5%. The U.S inflation rate ended in October 2012 after twelve months was 2.16% which is 0.11% higher than the one in September. The U.S inflation forecast consists of apparel, education and

The United States is the leading economy across the globe and experienced several tribulations in the recent past following the 2008 global recession. Despite these recent challenges, there are expectations among policymakers and financial experts that the country will experience solid economic growth. Actually, financial analysts have stated that the U.S. economy will be characterized by increased consumer spending, increased investments by businesses, reduced rate of unemployment, and reduction in government cut. Some analysts have also stated that the country’s economy will strengthen in 2014 with an average of 2.7 percent or more. However, these predictions can only be understood through an analysis of the current macroeconomic

From December 2007 to June 2009 the United States economy was confronted with its greatest challenge since the Great Depression. The financial crisis was so great that it was coined the term the Great Recession. Many factors contributed to the collapse of the U.S economy; such as, the financial crisis (2007–08), U.S. subprime mortgage crisis (2007–09), a shrinking Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate and unpresented unemployment rates. A recent (2016) article in the Wall Street Journal entitled “Post-Recession Rethink: Growth Potential Dimmed Before Downturn” examines the economic aftermath of the Great Recession.

• The rise and fall of GDP over a specific period of time is, in many cases, the number one indicator for how the economy is doing. Being the output of final goods and services, GDP works well with consumer confidence and provides a good idea as to the general health of the economy. By looking at Figure 1, we can see that GDP rose steeply after the 20008-2009 recession and has continued to remain strong with relatively little movement since 2010. In the most recent quarters, 2014 and 2015, GDP has declined a little, but the decline is in no way too drastic nor did it have any significant impact on the economy. This slight decline is more like GDP

Reduction in real exports (real imports, which are a subtracted in the GDP calculation declined as well), accounted for a significant portion of the economic decline, followed by a decrease in inventory investments, non residential fixed investments, residential investments and a cutback in state and local government spending. The GDP 's only supporter so far this year came in the form of increased real personal consumer expenditures, which grew from 2.1 percent from the previous estimate of 2.0 percent, mainly reflecting sharp increases in services and slight increases in other areas. The BEA states, "The downturn in the percent change in real GDP, primarily reflected a downturn in exports, a larger decrease in private inventory investment, and downturns in nonresidential fixed investment and in state and local government spending that were partly offset by an upturn in federal government spending" (2014). The table below, prepared by the BEA, shows precisely which components of GDP rose and tumbled in Q1 2014.

Americans have been bombarded by new worries in recent days with the war in Libya, unrest in much of the Middle East, and the seemingly endless series of catastrophes in Japan as reported by a recent Gallup poll measuring economic confidence. Added to that, there is a weak job market, increasing fuel prices, and fierce budget battles in Congress, obviously, it is clear the U.S. economy still faces

The forecast for US GDP for the next five years is positive with an average rate of 1.94 percent. From 2016 to 2020, the growth of US GDP as per the forecast will be 2 in 2016, 1.8 in 2017, 1.9 in 2018, 2 in 2019 and 2 percent in 2020 respectively (United States | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook). According to the actual or aggregate forecast for the next five years, US GDP will be $ 18,295 billion in the year 2020. Therefore, the trend is positive, and US GDP will continue to rise gradually.

In a recently released report entitled GDP Declines Slightly in Fourth Quarter, the United States Department of Commerce and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) examine recent data trends to provide a detailed advance estimate of the nation's gross domestic product (GDP). A pair of informative graphs is also included within this comprehensive review, with the first illustrating the quarterly growth in real GDP since 2009, and the second depicting annual real GDP growth over the same period of time. Released on January 30th, 2013, the BEA's most recent GDP forecast concludes that real GDP decreased by a rate of 0.1 percent during the fourth quarter of 2012, after a relatively encouraging increase of 3.1 percent during the preceding quarter (Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2013). Among the notable economic trends observed by the BEA in its latest report is a downturn in inventory investment by manufacturing industries, as major retailers struggle to cope with dampened consumer confidence during the prolonged recession (2013) The BEA also finds that government spending was curtailed dramatically, reflecting the Obama administration's commitment to reduce superfluous funding for the defense department.

The economy's good performance has prompted the Fed to establish optimistic forecasts and to permit interest rates' rise. Yet, there is a mismatch that is occurring in the records so far. For Local Market Monitor's Ingo Winzer, the number jobs have registered a 1 percent increase from the previous year's record, and half of the markets recorded a lesser income growth than inflation. Two-thirds of the markets, meanwhile, have yet to fully recover from the last recession.

The current rate of GDP growth, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, is 2.7% (for Q3), and it was 1.3% in Q2 of this year. This rate reflects relatively slow growth, with challenges remaining in the domestic market and with sluggishness in Europe suppressing exports to that region. The rate of GDP growth is predicted to slow to a decline of 0.5% between Q4 2012 and Q4 2013, the US re-entering recession, according to the Congressional Budget Office's projections. These projections are based on the provisions of the Budget Control Act being enacted, though any observers are doubtful that this will occur.

According to Trading Economics, consumer confidence will remain stable, and personal spending will grow roughly 5% between reported Q2/17 and 2020. Furthermore, revenue in the manufacturing sector for the US is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 4% between 2017 and 2021, based on changes in physical volume and unit prices. These factors indicate that NMP will be operating in a relatively stable, to slightly expanding environment. As noted in the charts below, manufacturing, real personal consumption expenditures, and consumer sentiment have been slightly increasing over the TTM.

In January of 2016 (for the U.S.), the personal savings rate was 5.2% [3]. In January of 2015, the personal savings rate was 5.5%. [4] From 2015 to 2016, the personal savings rate decreased by 0.3%. The GDP multiplier is 19.23 for 2016 (that means real GDP has total increase of $19.23 if the original planned expenditure was $1). The GDP multiplier is 18.18 and for 2015. The multiplier has increased between 2016 and 2015. The savings rate has decreased which means consumer spending has increased. Disposable income has also increased from March of 2015 to March of 2016.

There exist some differences between real GDP and nominal GDP. Real GDP is the measure (macroeconomic measure) of economic output that has been adjusted for a change in price. The meaning for this adjustment is that inflation or deflation has been factored in the computation of real GDP. It is the aspect of adjustment for price changes that makes a transformation of the money value to become a nominal value (Tucker 230). Nominal GDP refers to the value of Gross Domestic Product that has not factored in the adjustment for inflation. Nominal GDP is also called chained dollar GDP or current dollar GDP.

The Central Bank has not revised its economic growth forecast for the year, but current conditions suggest that economic growth would slip from 1.7 to 1.3 per cent that it estimated earlier this year to even below 1.5 per cent, if global demand for exports continues to be unfavorable and the prevailing drought conditions persist. The falling international oil prices are the one favorable development that could mitigate the economic slide.