Relationship Between Currency And Commodity Correlations

Why are Some Nations Rich and Others Poor? Introduction Over the years, a nation’s economy will change drastically and, due to a large variety of factors, there are now countries who are significantly wealthier than others. These factors range from lack of education, to lack of natural resources and all of them notably effect the economy of a country.

The figure obviously had not return to pre-crisis level. Moreover, recent commodity prices had fallen significantly which will affect Australia’s short and long term economy.

Between 2000 and 2016 Australia underwent the most dramatic mining increase because the Victorian gold rush. Investment in the sector, widely defined, quadrupled. The additionally fuelled growth in a huge vary of industries servicing the sector, in particular engineering construction and business services.

There are numerous reasons for the sudden decline in value of Australian currency, one of which is the renewed strength of the US dollar, due to the American economy’s acceleration through its recovery. However, there is the additional fact that the RBA has been cutting interest rates, resulting in Australia becoming a less attractive place for investors, as well as the continual impacts of deteriorating commodity prices

Australia has also experienced a rising terms of trade to 130.0 in late 2011 due to the commodities boom as a result of the industrialization of the BRICs, whereby Australia has experienced high export and national income, but has resulted in less competitiveness in other sectors due to the high AUD, causing the ‘Dutch disease’ whereby non-commodity sectors lose competitiveness. Similarly is can be seen in its narrow export base whereby in 2012-13 one third of export revenue came from coal and iron ore ($96 billion from 300 billion), furthermore 57% of Australian export revenue is made up of mineral and energy exports, whereby Australian growth has been largely fuelled by commodity exports and mining boom.

This has been the result of inflationary pressures due to excessive consumer demand, and a world increase in oil prices, the RBA’s primary objective is to contain inflation at 2-3% whilst also achieving sustainable growth. The current increases in interest rates will result in lower aggregate demand as consumers have less disposable income. This results in reductions in inflationary expectations, and a decrease in the demand for imports. Furthermore higher rates of interest will encourage overseas investment into Australia, thus resulting in an increase in the demand for the Australian dollar. An increase in the demand for the AU$, and a decrease in its supply due to less import expenditure will result in an appreciation of the AU$ in forex markets. Overall this results in depressed economic activity and lower levels of growth. However the RBA has been able to increase interest rates in order to contain inflation while maintaining economic growth. This is because the global economy has continued to grow at record pace, with strong growth in the US and China, and the recovery of Japan and Europe. Consequently demand for Australian exports has remained high, thus creating opportunities for increased production and subsequent economic

However, most of the oil imports to the U.S. come from Canada, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Venezuela, and Nigeria. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries or OPEC is part of where the Unites States imports their oil. OPEC countries only produce a small portion of American oil; the U.S. obtains most of its oil from Mexico and Canada. However, over the years Canadian oil production has risen while Mexico’s has fallen. It is obvious that it would be better to have a reliable, long-term supply of crude from Canada than rely on overseas suppliers, whether they are part of OPEC or not.

) Hence, there is essentially a self-correcting mechanism in the foreign exchange market. A stronger dollar basically leads to a weaker dollar while a weaker dollar eventually leads to a stronger one through the implications of growth.

One important determinant of a country 's exchange rate in the long term is whether it has a higher or lower inflation rate than its trading partners. The theory of purchasing power parity (PPP) suggests that the exchange rate between two countries will adjust to ensure that purchasing power is equalised in both countries. If a country 's inflation rate is persistently higher than that its trading partners, its trade-weighted exchange rate will tend to depreciate to prevent a progressive loss of competitiveness over time. In addition, political events can also impact the exchange rate, as seen with the ‘Malcolm Turnbull effect’ which lifted the Australian dollar. The Australian dollar, at US70.68c broke US71c in overnight trade after Turnbull discussed the need for economic reforms to counteract "challenges" facing the slowing local economy. Shortly after Mr Turnbull was confirmed as the victor against Prime Minister Tony Abbott, the dollar additionally rose one-third of a cent.

Nevertheless, some economists still maintain bullish opinions in regards to Australian economic growth. It is argued that there are still plenty of reasons to be optimistic since opportunity always comes with change - the economic opportunities for Australia have been rich and will continue to be. Some people say the benefits of the mining boom have been greatly exaggerated; so the unwinding of the boom will have less

“At three per cent, our economy has grown faster than the world’s major advanced economies, faster than the United Kingdom, the United States, Japan and Germany. We are growing more than twice as fast as Canada, faster than New Zealand and Singapore, and matching it with economies like South

2011). A depreciating Australian currency is potentially inflationary, the depreciation of the Australian dollar lead to high Australian inflation rates, it cause a loss of export markets and reduce demand for Australian currencies. In this way, Australia’s inflation rates and costs are higher than its overseas competitors, at the same time domestic goods in Australia would be more expensive (Edge, K 2009). As well as inflationary pressures in Australia will increase, as imports would now be more expensive. This may increase pressure on the RBA to raise interest rates to defend its inflation target. With the result that Australian multinational corporations would cause it lost their overseas’ markets and customers, profit which from overseas would be decline and also pay for more interest

Medical devices such as stents, precision electronics and jewelry production account for approximately 66 percent of the global demand for gold. If demand for these items declines, the price of gold could fall.

Started from late 1800s, Australian mining boom is an inevitable part of modern Australian history. From gold and copper to iron and gas, the several terms of mining boom made great contribution to Australian community and economy including providing source of employment, attracting immigrants and stimulating international trading. The mining boom is considered to be a shock to the Australian economy.“This combination of shocks has boosted the purchasing power and volume of Australian output. It has also led to large changes in relative prices, most noticeably an appreciation of the exchange

There are three major economic factors that have combined contribution to FMG’s growth over the past 5 years, including the strong AUD , the amazing export feature due to the Chinese boom which drives up the commodity price and the interest rate decision by RBA. Australia dollar has appeared strong for the past 5 years and maintained at $6-$6.8 level for AUD/CNY at most time. It promised a high level of foreign income for Australia exporter. In 2009, China demanded almost 60% of the world’s iron ore to produce 47% of world’s steel production. It contributes the most to the price rocket from $31.78 to $180.6 US cents/mts in 5 years time. In addition, Australia borrowing cost remains high over the past few years which may alter the finance decisions of FMG.