Relationship Between Unemployment And Inflation

There is always some unemployment resulting from workers failing to hook up with potential employers due to imperfect information. However, neither the demands nor supplies of labor nor the pattern of information among firms and employees is affected by inflation. Hence, inflation cannot affect the level of employment and unemployment and the Phillips curve is as shown. Both inflation and deflation have no affect on unemployment and output. Therefore, from this standpoint, all rates of inflation are optimal. Inflation simply does not matter.

“Provide Summary Level Paper (limit 10 pages) “Purpose and Practice of Inflation Forecasting by Nation” – for insertion after the “Measures of Inflation”

Inflation is an increase in the average overall price for goods or services while deflation is the decrease of average overall price for goods and services. Inflation always produces the effect of reducing the value of money and reduces the value of future monetary obligations. Reducing the value of money means a consumer has less money to buy services or goods. Reducing the value of future monetary obligations means investing or lending becomes more restricted as the value of return will be less than the amount paid back. Economist Arthur Okun analyzed the relationship between Unemployment and the GDP statistical. Okun’s law simply states that with rising unemployment there is a relationship of slow growth. Unemployment is a person looking for work and unable to find work. Deflation is the value of any amount of money rises. Deflation makes borrowers less likely to borrow because the value of the money they have to pay back will raise.

In this paper, we will be using the log-log model. The log-log model used for the demand for wealth (attuned for inflation). We will be using the M1, as a display, for demand on wealth and interest rate as the illuminating variable affecting the demand for wealth. Using the regression, we will study the hypothesis. For this paper, the hypothesis used will talk about the connection between money and the interest rate. The null hypothesis, in this case, will be the interest affecting the demand for money in the economy. The data that we will be reviewing is from October 2008 to October 2011, 3 years worth of data. This connection will give us the basic understanding of the performance of the monetary policy in US economy after the crisis.

The President of Bartavia wants to enact expansionary fiscal policy with the intention of manipulating inflation and unemployment. Although Bartavia is nearly employing all of its resources in production and extremely close to full employment level, the President is still concerned about the small percentage that is unemployed. Unemployment is the state of a person without a job or a reliable salary or income. Inflation and unemployment are characteristics that are closely monitored to indicate the economic performance of a country. As the economic advisor to the president, I would strongly advise against implementing this policy. Currently, the economy is not in a recession making the trade-offs associated with economic expansion counter intuitive. In addition, the Phillips Curve demonstrates the inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment, making the need for expansionary action unnecessary right now. Finally, Okun 's Law shows how this policy would effect Bartavia 's GDP via the sacrifice ratio. These three reasons show that the long-run consequences outweigh the short-run benefits of expansionary fiscal policy. Therefore, I implore the President to avoid implementing the expansionary policy.

However, during a period of global recession the Government’s implementation of expansionary fiscal and monetary policy saw taxation revenue fall and government spending increase, sending the budget into deficit by -$32.9 billion in 2008-09 . The 2009-2010 Budget continued expansionary policy to support economic growth and slow the rise in unemployment. The falling inflation rate of 1.5% in 2008-09 , meant it no longer played dominant role in policy making decisions. The tradeoff between inflation and unemployment can be observed in Figure 3.5 .

In the research, data was extracted from FRED which is the database of the St Louis Federal Reserve Bank and Bloomberg. Ordinary least squares (OLS) analysis was used in order to perform the regressions needed to calculate the results. The data was taken exclusively on a domestic level although quantitative easing was implemented abroad as well by the Bank of Japan in 1999.The data was chosen solely from the United States due to easier access to the data and the focus of the research to analyze United States economic affairs.

A lot of literatures have already studied about the inflation and inflation prediction and in this paper literature review will be discussed from the theoretical aspect and empirical aspect. The researches of the inflation, which are studied, by a lot of scholars in the field of economics have been conducted for a long time especially during the 1970s and it is the heyday when people would like to pay more attention to research the inflation. The inflation has become a hot topic among the economic life and social life since 1987. However, no matter whether it is in the western economic field or in the Chinese economic field, people have different definitions on the inflation and so far there is no unified opinion and conclusion can be accepted generally by everyone. For example, Wyplosz and Burda (1997), Blanchard (2000), and Barro (1997) define that inflation is a sustained rising in the overall price level of products and services in an economy throughout the time period. By contrast, Zha and Zhong (2016) define that inflation is considerable as the mechanism to improve economic growth. In general, the common definition of the inflation is that the inflation is a continuous rising process in the aspect of price. In other words, the value of the currency decreases continually.

The relationship between inflation and unemployment is a topic, which has been debated by economists for decades. It is this debate that has made the opinions about it evolve. In this essay, the controversial topic will be discussed by viewing different economists’ opinions on that according to time sequencing.

Inflation is a possible cause of higher unemployment in the medium term if one country experiences a much higher rate of inflation than another, leading to a loss of international competitiveness and a subsequent worsening of their trade performance. If inflation in the UK is persistently above our major trading partners, British exporters may struggle to maintain their share in overseas markets and import penetration into the UK domestic market will grow. Both trends could lead to a worsening balance of payments. The UK government believes that monetary stability (i.e. low inflation) is a precondition for sustained economic expansion.  As the chart below demonstrates, the UK has made progress in reducing the volatility of its inflation rate in the last decade. The era of high and volatile inflation may have come to an end.

Unemployment and inflation have an inverse relationship meaning that as one increases, the other decreases. According to the textbook, an ideal situation for the Federal Reserve would be to achieve both a low level of unemployment and a low level of inflation. After the 9/11 attacks in New York, the United States was put in a tragic financial crisis that led to the recession in 2008.

In the 70’s Friedman developed his theory of inflation on the correlation of inflation and unemployment on the basis of a critical analysis of the (Keynesian) Phillip’s curve. The key elements in the examination of the mutual links between the inflation process and the situation in the labor market are in his construct a natural rate of unemployment, (adaptive) expectations of inflation, as well as a

Unemployment has always been something that Americans have worried about since the great depression in which one in every four people was unemployed. High unemployment has an impact on every one even those whom are still currently employed. For example if the unemployment rate is particular high then even those with jobs get worried. Unemployment is also separated in to distinct categories base on which group is the focus of the study. The categories can be by race, age or location, for example the unemployment rate of those between the age of sixty and sixty-five could be compared those between the ages of thirty and thirty-five. These categories allow economist to see which groups are the best and which groups are worst off. One group

Discuss the role of government policy in reducing unemployment and inflation. In your discussion make use of the diagrammatic representation of the macroeconomy developed in lectures in Term 2

Malaysia’s Unemployment Rate since 2000 till present. Notice the peaks after an expansion and troughs after a recession. This graph also indicates the business cycle in Malaysia.