Risk Analysis in Oil Refining Sector

Oil is the product that each and every one of us use. It can be used for fuel, heating and even cooking. The most often known for unstable price is crude oil or gasoline. According to the The Economist, The main reason for price shifts of oil is oversupply. The oil production in Saudi rose 10.3 million barrels per day. This increase is the effect of a new method that I being applied to oil extraction. This method is called fracking, fracking is where they drill into tight-rock formations then gradually turning horizontal for several thousand feet more. This results to accommodations to multiple oil wells. This new approved method of oil harvesting has raised the productivity gains and reduced the cost of harvesting oil.

In 2016, the crude oil price movement prices were unpredictable. The OPEC reference basket dropped 10 percent to $43.22 per pound. The ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI both went down by 8.4 percent with ICE Brent at $47.08 per pound and NYMEX WTI at $45.76 per pound. This showed that there were uncertainties in the petroleum market. The future prices were predicted for 2017 that it would move higher. The World’s economic growth predictions was the same at 2.9% for 2016 but increased to 3.1% for 2017. Because of the 3rd quarter of 2016 in Japan and US, the OCED growth went from 1.6% to 1.7%. The demand for oil growth in 2016 has been increasing slightly to 1.24 mb/d. In 2017, the demand will be predicted with a decrease to 1.15 mb/d. OECD will

Several oil-countries have been facing economic and political turbulence as a result of the crash in oil prices, and there is disagreement among OPEC as how to handle the situation. (Krauss) While this is happening, America’s oil production continues to rise, as it inches closer to becoming an energy superpower in production and consumption; and countries that depend on their oil exports face recession.

The energy industry is not any different than most commodity-based industries as it faces long periods of boom and bust. Drilling and other service firms are highly dependent on the price and demand for petroleum. These firms are some of the first to feel the effects of increased or decreased spending. If oil prices rise, it takes time for petroleum companies to size up land, setup rigs, take out the oil, transport it and refine it before the oil company sees any profit. On the other hand, oil services and drilling

The chapter by Manabu Shimizu focuses on Japan’s efforts in oil exploration and the country’s future goals in the oil industry. Since Japan imports all of its oil, the “challenge is to establish a long-term, sustainable oil supply” (Shimizu 113). Japan has begun to fund Central Asian oil exploration in the hopes of a big oil market being produced for that region. However, Japan does not intend to import oil from Central Asia, rather they want other regions to do import. By doing so, some of the production pressure is lifted from the Middle East, which is where most of Japan’s oil comes from. At the moment, the Middle East is the main producer of oil for many countries with great power over the market, and Japan hopes to create another market

Some emergent countries have put a lot of effort to find new reservoir or find the best way to recover oil from deep seas such as The pre-salt in Brazil. America has high projections for the future with fracking. However, lower prices would put at risk investments in unconventional sources. For example, tar sands, shale oil, deep sea and fracking. Our forecast is that the crude oil price tend to slowly rise until the market balance it self to avoid oversupply especially because of the weakening in the global oil

The demand for oil has been predicted to increase despite the high price of oil. Sources of the demand for oil continue to increase with time worldwide. As countries industrialize and develop, their oil consumption increases together with their economy. Examples of countries that have their economy growing fastest and steadily are India and China. These two countries have their economy growing and the impact their economic growth has on oil demand is great. Some developed countries are also about to change their habits on oil demand. This will be likely adapted faster if the prices of oil continue to rise. Oil prices are determined by the traders and speculators who control and manipulate the future oil market (Anderson, 1).

In the context of a global surplus of refining capacity, weak demand and tight refining margins, refiners are lowering refinery utilization (as they have done globally to historically low levels) and are closing more marginal refineries. Refinery rationalization since the GFC in 2008 has been, and

Based on the tornado chart results, it can be seen in figure 4.8 that field A post-tax NPV is affected by the oil price fluctuation. Furthermore, development expenditure (devex) and discount-rate ranked second and third as the variables which affected it. Therefore, oil price is indeed essential factor to consider for investors.

NELP (New Exploration Licensing Policy) is the new government policy which is to have a direct impact on the E&P activity in India and an indirect effect on the refining sector. This is to promote the participation of foreign companies in India and have a check on the on the rising crude bill. In India one of the major problems is the price control that the government has over selling end products what this has done in that made refining companies less profitable even though this is done in the larger interest of the nation. The government is also planning to put in strategic petroleum reserve but this on paper as of now. For India to sustain its economic growth this sector is to play a vital role and the government understands this and doing all to liberalize it the fullest.  

The growing oil scarcity in the early 21st Century and its possible implications on the global economy, including economic growth, inflation, food security and poverty, is a subject that has been widely well known and discussed by a plethora of scientists and economists. Peak oil, a term coined by M. King Hubbert in 1965, is generally defined as “the time in our history when world oil production will reach its all-time peak and begin to incline forever”(Hirsch et al., 2005). By their finite nature, there is no argument over whether fossil fuels – oil, gas and coal – will go scarce, but rather when this will occur, whether alternative energy supplies will meet the ever-increasing demand, and how best to oversee such a transition. The failure to do so could result in a profound word-wide economic crisis leading to lower economic standards in developed and developing countries alike. Cuba, one of the only countries that has faced such a crisis yet, is an example of options and hope.

The world is depended on oil and soon oil will become more valuable than gold and could lead to a worldwide war. Price for oil could soar to above two hundred fifty dollars per barrel. Oil and other fuel cell also cause green house gases which contribute to global warming. China is consuming two times more petroleum than 1996 and India is projected to consume three times the oil it currently does by 2050. Global house gas emission has increased by twenty percent from 2003 to 2006. Energy consumption has increased exponentially throughout the globe. The U.S. department of energy projects energy consumption will increase seventy percent from 2003 to 2030. The world has agreed to reduce emission by twenty five percent before 2020 and by over

There is almost nothing in this world where there is no risk involved. Risk involved is a major topic of concern in everyday life more than ever before. This report gives an overview about the risks involved in everyday life and especially in the oil and gas industry.

World oil demand is increasing as emerging economies need more energy to increase their living standards. Estimates, shown below, are that by 2030, China and India as emerging markets will import over 70% to 90% of their fossil fuel needs (1) . Coupled to a continued high and growing demand for oil, makes this a robust market for the next 30 years.

Backing to 1950s, due to two major plans followings: rapidly changing of the economical conditions in Thailand, additionally, developed infrastructure and new street system. At the begin-ning of this era the supply of both crude and refined oil were heavily imported from abroad, espe-cially Indonesia and some Middle Eastern countries. Therefore, Thai government planned to develop the petroleum industry in Thailand as supporting forecasted growing industries, transportations, as well as household consumption in the next 10 years that gradually increased number of energy consumers. In 1960s, the first Thai petroleum refinery company was established. The company had a permission to produce petroleum refineries by the government. In the period of