Risks And Opportunities : Scenario Planning

1357 WordsDec 8, 20156 Pages
To solve issues where there is strong differences of opinions, each of which has its merits, we can use scenario planning. Scenarios are not forecasts of the future, but possibilities with an infinitesimal chance of happening. These estimated outcomes are grounded, and not plain guessing. Scenario planning endeavors to understand uncertainty by capture and highlight the critical issues that might have an effect, and the relationship between them. The point of doing such estimates is to evaluate all the different scenarios that might occur in the future so we can adapt quickly and make the right decisions. Advantages of such planning can be early warnings of risks and opportunities, and it can help to create innovative ideas, etc. A way of constructing different scenarios is to use the extreme world method. This method starts with identifying the issues and the horizon year. Then we identify current trends, (population growth, power shifts, investments levels, etc.), and uncertainties that might influence the concerned issues, and analyze if they could have positive or negative impacts on said issue. After, we create extreme worlds, and add predetermined trends to both scenarios. Then we check for internal consistency, and add inn actions of individuals and groups. Set objectives The objective with this case is to find a solution to the dispute concerning the development of the TMT telescope on Mauna Kea. To find such a solution, we can utilize scenario planning. However,
Open Document