Season Your Data with Theory and Common Sense in Nate Silver's Book, Signal and The Noise

Supply chain operations focus on demand planning, forecasting, and inventory management. Forecasts estimate customer demand for a particular product during a specific period of time based on historical data, external drivers such as upcoming sales and promotions, and any changes in trends or competition. Using

America is not the only country that is recovering from an economic recession. The global marketplace is experiencing the same struggles that the recession has brought to countries across the world. Many companies have been impacted in a negative way from the recession, causing them to make some difficult decisions to survive during these turbulent times. When it comes to supply chain management, “it is remarkable how rapidly many businesses have successfully scaled back their supply chain operations in order to sustain profitability during difficult times” (Article p1)

The current demand forecasting method is based on qualitative techniques more than quantitative ones. If the forecast is not accurate, the company would carry both inventory and stock out costs. It might lose customers due to shortage of supply or carry additional holding costs due to excess production. If the actual demand doesn’t match the forecast ones, and the forecast was too high, this will result in high inventories, obsolescence, asset disposals, and increased carrying costs. When a forecast is too low, the customer resorts to a competitive product or retailer. A supplier could lose both sales and shelf space at that retail location forever if their predictions continue to be inaccurate. The tolerance level of the average consumer

The beginning of the chapter two included a section that discussed the dilemma of trying to introduce what is learned in the classroom in the work place. I recently just experience the difficultly of trying to utilize material I am currently learning in my EDPH 502 Individual Learning Differences course, at my fieldwork site. I tried to give feedback to my supervisor of how to improve the Puente program and was given a practical response of the program lacking the resources and a full time staff to monitor sections of the program can be improved at the moment. Collaboration was another topic in Chapter two that connected to me at my current employment as a Student Program Advisor for the USC Trio Educational Talent Search (ETS) Program. Ardoin (2014) mentions how an individual has to be patient when searching for a collaborative project. At the moment I am working on assignments that were given to me, but it was only a few months ago that I was asked to collaborate with other colleagues of mine on a project. The inclusion of being asked to assist with a group project allowed my opinion matter and

“The business environment has never been more challenging than it is right now. The foundation that is required to react to dynamic changes in supply and demand is based on understanding your supply chain’s capacities.” By planning out in advance with capacity planning, Riordan

Chris, Marek, and Kate try to get across the river safely. They know that it is not safe to cross the river when there are so many guards outside. They collaborate and make plans about which way to go and how to best stay out of sight. “André. This is too dangerous. Let’s not cross the river tonight” (312&315). This is showing how the three graduates collaborate to make plans and keep everyone safe. Collaboration, as shown in this piece of evidence, is a great example of teamwork. Collaborating allows the graduates to make plans and understand each

Society has been evolving as of late. Individual work is no longer encouraged and has been labeled “out of fashion” (14). Environments like school, work, and religious institutions have been implementing teamwork as of late. The idea is that teamwork allows the transfer of ideas from person to person, but at the same time allowing

Collaboration is often first learn with friends (e.g. a sandbox), within the classroom (e.g. team projects). Emily Eldrige also goes on to share her life story, and her tendency not wanting to work in groups. Collaboration, by society standards, is seen as a natural skill, that everyone possess. When student prefer not to work in group, rather than promoting team effort, it is best to ask the students, why are groups not an interest or a likeness. Collaboration falls into three categories: life experiences, personality, and contextual knowledge. Personality is the predominant factor for most students. During this phase in a person's life, he/she is making numerous personal decisions that he/she will carry for the rest of his/her life. When

Additionally, from personal experience, it can distinctly be proven that wisdom detaches from a struggle. When working on a collaborative project, it’s crucial to feel pride in the work that one has put in. If there’s a feeling of doubt that overshadows the pleasure, it’s practically impossible to be satisfied with the work. The experience of

Sawyer speaks a lot of truth in this paragraph about how collaboration is what makes all of the amazing innovative teams spark new ideas. Groups should not be self-centered but they need to be empowered by the whole and not its parts. As

Russell, R. S., & Taylor III, B. W. (2014). Operations and Supply Chain Management, 8th edition. Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Along with better communication, improved forecasting can help a supply chain run better. If you are able to forecast customer demand, you have a better chance on not being “tricked” by signals throughout the chain. A company can improve forecasting by looking at their past history, the history within their industry, or simply by asking their customers; predominantly through surveys or focus groups. Another way to improve you supply chain is to see if there is an opportunity to reduce the number of parties or complexity within the supply chain. The more stations there are the better chance for errors and delays. It is also easier to find and solve issues if your process is less complex. A smaller group also allows for better relationships between

2. Why focus on fixing the forecasts? What are the implications of a poor forecast?

The class text states that Supply chain management is frequently divided into supply chain planning applications, supply chain execution applications, logistics management, and warehouse management. Often when companies fail at implementing an efficient supply chain because of the planning section, or inaccurate demand forecasts. The text states electronic data interchange is one of the earliest uses of information technology for supply chain management, Electronic data interchange is the use of the Internet for everyday business transactions. “In this era of information a firm’s supply chain should operate at speed of thought and this is possible only by enhanced e-speed communications and information sharing with their critical partners.” (4)

The concept of demand forecasting more accurately measures and predicts the changes and opportunities in the supply chain.