Share Price Movement Analysis

Stock markets are a central component to the functioning of a capitalist economy. All major economies have national stock markets and many economies have smaller markets as well in order to facilitate trade in small cap stocks, or other specialized securities such as derivatives. Sometimes the performance of a stock market is used in the media as a measure of economic performance, as the market is deemed to be comprised of rational economic actors whose actions are guided by high levels of knowledge. It is important for everybody to understand how stock markets work, and what the benefits and limitations are of using stock markets as a gauge of economic performance.

Week 1 – Introduction – Financial Accounting (Review) Week 2 – Financial Markets and Net Present Value Week 3 – Present Value Concepts Week 4 – Bond Valuation and Term Structure Theory Week 5 – Valuation of Stocks Week 6 – Risk and Return – Problem Set #1 Due Week 7* – Midterm (Tuesday*) Week 8 - Portfolio Theory Week 9 – Capital Asset Pricing Model Week 10 – Arbitrage Pricing Theory Week 11 – Operation and Efficiency of Capital Markets Week 12 – Course Review – Problem Set #2 Due

The premise of an efficient market is that stock prices adjust accordingly as information is received. The speed and accuracy of the pricing changes are a reflection of the strength of the market efficiency, where in theory a perfectly efficient market will re-adjust prices immediately and precisely with new information. The efficient market hypothesis aligns with beliefs about whether technical and fundamental analyses are useful in making investment decisions or whether a passive approach is appropriate. In a perfectly efficient market, these types of analyses are not able to predict stock price trends (based on market inefficiencies or price abnormalities) which could assist in portfolio positioning or investment management. However, some investors belive that the market pricing is not precise and that there are timing windows and pricing trends that can be identified through analysis of past performance and finding price abnormalities where all information is not correctly reflected in the stock price (Hirt, Block and Basu, 2006).

Since 1975, Patton Fuller Community Hospital (PFCH) has been serving the people of the Kelsey and the surrounding communities. PFCH is a for-profit organization and is owned by physician active within the facility. Owned by the physicians active at the hospital, the organization is governed by a 14 member board of directors, which consist of 12 physician-owners, with the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) and the Chief Financial Officer (CFO) as non-voting members. The facility is dedicated to providing cutting-edge medical services. PFCH

Economic theory proposes that there should be a strong link between economic activity and stock prices, given that its price is the discounted present value of the firm’s payout. If this payout is finally a function of real activity, such a link should exist.

This accessibility of information and deregulation has encouraged foreign investments, and we can see the surge of new financial products and an increase in financial innovation in the markets today. Stocks can now be dual-listed, traded across markets in two different countries. For example, many large Canadian companies are listed both on the New York Stock Exchange as well as the Toronto Stock Exchange. There are also Brazilian-based companies listed on both the Brazilian and US stock markets. This adds greater liquidity to the companies’ shares traded, and also gives investors more options as to where they can trade.

The Stock Market is a place where people can chose to invest in public companies and possibly receive dividend when value of the company increases which is often measured by a shareholder by a share’s worth. People investing in companies can also lose money if the company invested in isn’t making money for itself. In this Economics project, students were supplied with arbitrary amount of money to buy stock and observe how the dynamic stock market works. With $10,000 I chose to invest mostly in TVIX, SIRI, and CNAT.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ are both significant economic indicators. The Dow Jones was created by Charles Dow in 1896. “The Dow” is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks, most of which are traded on the New York Stock exchange. The NASDAQ is the National Association of Securities Dealers Automatic Quotation System. It is the first and largest electronic stock exchange in the world, consisting of more than 4000 stocks. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ are significant gauges of the current state of the economy. However, the NASDAQ is much larger and includes more than 4000 companies, while the Dow Jones only includes 30 companies. All of the NASDAQ stocks are also traded on the NASDAQ exchange,

Allocating the ownership of economy’s stock capital is the primary role of capital market. In an ideal market the price would provide accurate signals for allocation of resources. Ideal market is one in which firm’s production-investment decisions and investor’s decision regarding securities will depend on the assumption that the security prices fully reflect available information at any point in time. A market in which prices always “fully reflect” available information is called efficient.1

An efficient market is one in which share prices quickly and fully reflect all available information, where investors are rational, and there are no frictions. Investors determine stock prices on the basis of expected cash flows to be received from a stock and the risk involved. Rational investors should use all the information they have available or can reasonably obtain, including both known information and beliefs about the future. In an efficient market there is “no free lunch”: no investment strategy can earn excess risk-adjusted average returns, or average returns greater than are warranted for its risk (Barberis, 2003). Market efficiency is assessed by determining how well

The report highlights the operations of Rio Tinto- one of the biggest mining corporations in the world. The purpose of this report is to compare the performance and share prices of the overall stock market index S&P/ASX200 and Rio Tinto during 1 January 2013- 1 January 2017. The report also illustrates the weekly returns of S&P/ASX200 and RIO TINTO to measure the percentage change in share prices from one week to the next during the same 4year period.

The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) has been subject to professional and academic debate and analysis for many years, and refers to the theory proposing that stock prices show all information regarding a firm’s value. An efficient market is a market in which investors with the same information and similar investment goals compete actively (Sewell, 2012). Many private investors and investors aiming to make profits are involved with the stock market and often make low risk investments while aiming for high rates of return. However, the efficient market hypothesis states that it is impossible to consistently outperform the stock market as the market is able to quickly adjust to new information. The Efficient Market Hypothesis also addresses

Strong form efficiency is the final form of efficiency. Ross et al. (1993) emphasise all types of information, either public or private, are more likely to be incorporated in the stock market prices when the market is efficiently strong. Additionally, in this kind of market, it is impossible to determine any incomparable investors who are able continually to vanquish the market (Brealey et al., 2011). Expressed differently, strong competition is highly considered among the investors of the strong market efficiency. Therefore, the crucial investors may not be able to keep their high position in the long-term.

The author has experience in dealing with financial data during his day to day job. Therefore he is comfortable with extracting relevant figures and come to a conclusion on his

Aberdeen Asset Management plc (for the purpose of this report I will refer to the company as Aberdeen) is an international investment management group that manages assets for third parties; institutions and individuals (p.2, MarketLine Company Profile, 2015). Aberdeen is an extremely large firm and results from the last financial year showed net revenue of £1,117.6m and a pre-tax profit of £324.4m (p.1, Final Results 2014, AAM Plc). The group employs over 2,600 members of staff, in 33 offices across 25 different countries around the world, with its headquarters based in Aberdeen, Scotland (p.4, MarketLine Company Profile, 2015). The company has seen rapid growth since it was founded in 1983 through acquisitions and internal growth. In 1991 it began floating on the London Stock Exchange under the name Aberdeen Trust PLC (p.5, MarketLine Company Profile, 2014). Fig. 2 shows how the success of the company is reflected in its increasing share price since floatation, earning it a place in the coveted FTSE 100 Index in 2012 (Our History, aberdeen_asset.co.uk). The firm is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FSA) in the United Kingdom jurisdiction. Aberdeen is a public limited company (plc) which means it has limited liability and its shares may be freely sold and traded by the public, Fig 2 shows the fluctuation of the share price in recent years. The current market capitalisation of Aberdeen, which is calculated