Simply Corrective Essay: What's Hindsight Bias?

The experiment took place in room 337, the experimental psychology lab room in the science building of Queens College, CUNY.

He analysis conformation bias, hindsight bias, self-serving bias, and other types. When talking about conformation bias McRaney analysis that we have constructed our thoughts and opinions based on information we have accumulated based on our beliefs, while ignoring what the information against other opinions. A form of conformation bias that McRaney uses in page twenty-seven is: When you talk about a movie you haven’t seen in a long time and all of a sudden you are surrounded by information of said movie, you believe that fate is trying to tell you something. In reality conformation bias is occurring. You are have noticed more information about the movie because you have dismissed any other information. We seek out information that only enhances our beliefs and discriminates against the facts. Hindsight bias is relatable because we look at newfound information and speculate that we had already known it all along. Hindsight bias isn’t necessarily good because we have tendency to always wanting to be right, so after learning something new we edit our memories so we seem more factual than what we really are. McRaney states on page thirty-three that studies are the best way to demonstrate hindsight bias for researchers. Researchers can write a false statement in an article and we manufacture this information as our truth. Another form of bias McRaney talked about was self-serving bias. Self-serving bias

To test just exactly how E.S.P. worked, he created an experiment with Zener cards, which had one of a total 5 pictures on each of them. Rhine would draw a card form the deck and ask the subject to guess what picture was on the card. Out of the many subjects tested, most guessed only about 20% of the cards correct, but one young man averaged about 50% correct. This young man, Adam Linzmayer, would even guess up to 9 cards in a row, which was almost a one in a million chance—he did it three times. Rhine became overly excited of his findings on his belief in E.S.P. and wanted to publish the results. But upon his replication of the experiment, Linzmayer’s success rate of guessing the drawn cards greatly decreased (Lehrer, para. 12-13). This decline effect could possible be due to regressive fallacy, which is the inability to account natural and unavoidable fluctuations in experiments. For example, things like stock market prices and chronic back pain unavoidably fluctuate between prosperous and well-feeling times to poor and pain-filled times. By setting aside the idea of natural and unavoidable fluctuations, one can ultimately fall into self-deception and into post hoc

Hindsight bias- The tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that one would have foreseen it. (I-knew-it-all-along phenomenon)

In Chapter 3, there were 12 areas of bias spread across the 3 areas of heuristics. The main theme of the text was to prove that we are predisposed to certain outcomes. As we make important decisions we rely on our memory, or a number of past events, or even ignoring facts. Overall, we are biased in many ways when it comes to making decisions, or predicting outcomes of a particular event.

An answer may be found in the Dunning-Kruger effect: the curious phenomenon of “confident idiots” emboldened by their own ignorance, rather than cautioned by it.

where the test subjects could not see them. The point of this experiment is to see if the subjects

Asch’s experiment was designed to study the cause and extent to which an individual will conform within a given group setting. Using the inductive experimental method Asch observed the group in a controlled setting where he was able to manipulate the independent variable (the amount of group pressure) to observe the effects of the dependent variable (the conformity of the participant). The purpose of his experiment was to understand which aspect of the influence of a majority is more influential—the size of the majority or its unanimity (how much they agree vs. the individual)? This brings upon the subject two opposed forces: the evidence of their senses and the unanimous opinion of a majority group. To do this the subjects had to declare

Confirmation bias is a tendency of people to prefer information that reinforces a thought or believe that they have. People demonstrate this bias when they retain information selectively, or when they interpret it in a biased way. The effect is stronger for emotional issues and for deeply rooted beliefs. (Science Daily)

The experiment used the same red and green stimuli in each trial instead of other opponent colors such as black and white or blue and yellow. The small sample size studied could have also lead to random variation in the results.

The first one I would say may not come from the most reliable source, but one that is consistent with the background material of Anchoring. It is a great example as you see this all the time when considering purchasing cars. One will look for a specific item instead of putting together a list of ones thoughts and basing the decision off multiple items.

Confirmation bias is our feeling to choose the information that confirms what we belief or the ideas we have on a subject. Sometimes this can lead us to misjudge or make wrong decisions. The pilots of flight 5191 out of Lexington airport let their belief of the situation make them make the wrong decision and not confirm they were on the right runway. Pilots Clay and Polehinke ignored the warning signs of the unlit runway, too short runway and their distracted conversation during the pre-flight time.

The survey results and the story “Like the Sun” relate really well. The story “Like the Sun” tells you that “No human being can ever look it straight in the face without blinking or being hazed” but in reality, people never want to tell the 100% truth, but they always want to hear the truth. In the story, Sekhar tells the Headmaster the truth about the music he is singing, and tells him he shouldn’t continue his lessons. The headmaster told Sekhar before Sekhar told the truth to him that he would have ten days to give him graded papers, but after he told the headmaster the truth he told him the papers would be due tomorrow. This shows that people can change after they have somebodies 100% truthful opinion, and that's why people don’t want to

Morewedge et al. put participants in either a room with tasty foods (e.g. cake) or a room with less appetizing foods (e.g. sardines). When asked to predict how much they would enjoy a potato chip, participants in the superior room forecasted less pleasure from the chips than those in the inferior room. When participants actually ate the chips, however, they all enjoyed them equally. When making predictions, the chips were automatically compared to the foods in the room, but they no longer thought about the foods they aren't eating once they actually had chips in their

Normative influence primarily occurs in situations where an individual, when amidst others in a crowd, tend to go along with them primarily in order to be liked and accepted by them as part of their fraternity. Research has identified that normative inference normally occurs as an inborn human nature as human beings tends to associate themselves with others in order to maintain a good social contact and relationship with them. Ideally, normative influence is normally furthered by the need for an individual to increase their chances of surviving especially during adverse conditions. This entails that people may at times seem to agree with others just in order for them to appease themselves to them and avoid potential conflict of standing alone and standing out. In some situations normative influence may occur where individuals associate with complete strangers. In such cases, due to mutual fear for each other, an individual may naturally try to agree with the rest in order to avoid appearing as contradictory or controversial.