Solutions to Arundel Partners Case

the star who they love. The studio would have a stable number of audiences to watch their movies.

The maximum per-film price for the sequel rights that Arundel Partners should pay is $5.12M.

Given our analysis of the motion picture industry, we recommend that Arundel carefully select the major film studios from which they intend to purchase sequel rights. The net present value of hypothetical sequels taken from the available previous years shows not only that the industry is highly volatile, but also that certain production studios are more volatile than others in terms of their recent performance. In addition, some studios are consistently less profitable than others. (See "NPV for Each Production Company" chart in appendix) Since the success of film studios are relatively stable in the short term (see "Rental Shares of Major Film Distributors" table and graph) Because of this stability, it is possible for Arundel to approach more profitable studios with their offer to purchase sequel rights. Out of all the major film studios, only MCA-Universal, Warner Bros., and The Walt Disney Company generate a positive net present value on a per-film basis. However, according to casual inquiries, it is unlikely that any movie studio would enter negotiations with Arundel on a per film price that is less than 1 million. Instead, the film studios seem to

With the purchase of sequel rights, what Arundel is achieving is to have a call option on the revenue that each movie brings. This helps to remove the uncertainty and risks associated with producing a movie, especially with regard to moviegoers’ taste. With the sequel right, Arundel will only exercise this option to produce a sequel if the first movie proved to be popular and the sequel is hence predicted to bring in profits. This provides downside protection, as huge losses (due to high production costs) associated with a failed movie will be avoided.

A group of investors (Arundel group) is looking into the idea of purchasing the sequel rights associated with films produced by one or more major movie studios. Movie rights are to be purchased prior to films being made. Arundel wants to come up with a decision to either purchase all the sequel rights for a studio's entire production during a specified period of time or purchase a specified number of major films. Arundel's profitability is dependent upon the price it pays for a portfolio of sequel rights. Our analysis of Arundel's proposal includes a net present value calculation of each movie production company. In order to decide whether Arundel can make money buying movie

“The Player” was a negotiation between the newly appointed Vice-President of National Artists Productions (NA) and a successful Hollywood director. This negotiation could have resulted in the first major motion picture deal that the producer would have worked on after his promotion to VP. In this negotiation I played the role of the Vice-President. My goal was to reach what I felt was the most satisfactory agreement possible with the Director. There were 11 issues to negotiate, and each had points associated with them to show the importance of each issue. The 11 issues included the following: director’s base salary, pre-production budget, post production schedule,

Arundel can make money selling the rights to a higher bid. Another option to make money is by producing the sequel exercising its rights but this will depend on if the net present value of the production movies is higher than the amount of buying the rights. If the future positive cashflows are undervalued Arundel can seek an arbitrage

In this case, a movie industry analyst is asked to evaluate a proposed venture in which a group of partners would purchase the sequel rights to movies produced by the major studios. Your objective is to 1) discuss and evaluate the basic concept; 2) determine the value of the sequel rights on a per-movie basis; 3) evaluate the possible upside and potential drawbacks to the proposed plan. As you will see, the ideas here incorporate elements of capital budgeting coupled with a “real options” analysis.

Based on the previous module assessments, NBC Universal’s preliminary focus should be geared toward the film industry. The recent trade deal, between both the U.S. and Chinese Governments, lowered a 20-year-old quota on U.S. films and distribution fees in the Chinese film industry. This signifies productive progression within the film industry, even though small in nature, but nonetheless this could equate to significant profit gains for all the FMO’s within the market.

1. Why do the principals of Arundel Partners think they can make money buying movie sequel rights? Why do the partners want to buy a portfolio of rights in advance rather than negotiating movie-by-movie to buy them?

Arundel should make an offer to buy sequel rights as the average NPV (on a per film basis ) is $5.51 mn (this is the value calculated using real options method).

4. The bargaining power of buyers: The outlook for the target market isn’t favorable for the movie industry because it will not be growing as fast as the overall population. Buyer power is a strong force because of the target market and several other factors including: the undifferentiated product offered, switching to an alternative is simple and low cost, and customers can stay home and watch movies. The consumers are also complaining about concession and ticket costs, along with the advertisements before the film is shown.

Based on our valuation of the investment, as outlined below in the Analysis portion of the report, we have determined a per-movie-value of $8.9 million when considering purchasing the rights to the entire portfolio of 99 movies analyzed in the sample data. Based on production of 10 sequels, the per-movie-value of the portfolio would be $52.25 million. Our calculations based on the hypothetical portfolio is that Arundel Partners should make this investment as long as the present value of the expected cash flows from the sequel revenues exceeds the cost of production plus the cost of the investment. Depending on what value a studio will accept as payment per sequel, there appears to be significant profitability in the investment.

One the one hand, the fertility of the industry opened the doors to corporations that sighted substantial growth potential. New entrants with big pockets such as Walmart could pose a certain threat to Netflix, by exploiting a playing card based on cost reduction. On the other hand, barriers to entry became relatively significant as established video rental retailers such as Netflix have the experience and the knowhow to market movies to people. In this industry, firms that do not have a technological advantage can’t compete. The best example is Netflix’s CineMatch program that offered personalized film recommendations based on customer’s rental patterns. This way, Netflix was able to better serve its subscribers. From a cost perspective, the movie rental industry requires high capital expenditures, and the major expenses are highly related to acquisitions of DVD library and investments in technology (exhibit 2 continued). Thus, we may say that entry is difficult in this industry as the competing firms have reputation, experience and recognizable brand names.

The five forces of competition of the movie rental industry presents little force against a competitor’s market position based on buyer power, supplier power, and new entrant threats. However, threat of substitutes and rivalry among competitors can affect the amount of profits a company will gain and retain.