Spin Master

a.) Choice – The power to choose is a fundamental concept of an entrepreneur’s life. Our environment can affect the choices we make. We tend to respond to our circumstance by choosing the way by which we respond. One can choose to give a positive or a negative response to their environment. The choice we make is what determines the outcome of our lives. “The mark you make today will show up tomorrow”.

17. Environments exist when decision makers lack complete certainty regarding the outcomes of various courses of action, but they are aware of the probabilities associated with their occurrence

He analysis conformation bias, hindsight bias, self-serving bias, and other types. When talking about conformation bias McRaney analysis that we have constructed our thoughts and opinions based on information we have accumulated based on our beliefs, while ignoring what the information against other opinions. A form of conformation bias that McRaney uses in page twenty-seven is: When you talk about a movie you haven’t seen in a long time and all of a sudden you are surrounded by information of said movie, you believe that fate is trying to tell you something. In reality conformation bias is occurring. You are have noticed more information about the movie because you have dismissed any other information. We seek out information that only enhances our beliefs and discriminates against the facts. Hindsight bias is relatable because we look at newfound information and speculate that we had already known it all along. Hindsight bias isn’t necessarily good because we have tendency to always wanting to be right, so after learning something new we edit our memories so we seem more factual than what we really are. McRaney states on page thirty-three that studies are the best way to demonstrate hindsight bias for researchers. Researchers can write a false statement in an article and we manufacture this information as our truth. Another form of bias McRaney talked about was self-serving bias. Self-serving bias

In terms of the anchoring bias, regularly revisit of the original decision based on the newly gathered data needs to be set up within the organization. Additionally, the decision maker should avoid the Confirmation Trap in which Bazerman and Moore (2009) argues that people tend to seek information that confirms their expectations and hypotheses. To recognize the bias, Mike Francis could

Risk taking played a huge role into Earle’s life. He loved to take risks and wasn’t afraid to fail. Instead of keeping a secure sale position that he would be reliable on and not have to worry about financial difficulties, Earle decided to take a risk into directing his own business. This

This course is an introduction to decision making encountered in business and everyday life. The course covers selected tools in probability, statistics, economics, operations research, and operations management. We will apply these tools and principles to problems in financial management, marketing,

Identify the potential risks which affect the company and manage these risks within its risk appetite;

Launching a high risk/ high return business is not a simple process. There are several key factors and criteria that need to be met in order for your venture to have a chance. Ignoring them would most likely result in complete failure, and this is why a large number of startups fail in their early stages. This simulation is meant to help me identify the key pitfalls and factors of success.

Harary, Rabie, and Varadi are successful and young entrepreneurs and founders of Spin Master. Since their start-up company had been facing the unique and ill-structured problems, they needed to take heuristic problem-solving as solution. It leaded them to become more non-programmed decisions type.

Such decisions may affect the company’s profitability today but judging from the fact that high risk means low stock price and vice-versa, high return waits in the future.

The following explanation is structured based on the decision making model: Define the problem (A), Analyze Alternatives (B), Make a Choice (C), Take Action (D), Evaluate Result (E). For each of the steps in the decision-making process, I will list each situation in order (1-4) stated in Case 9, W-115.

In the case study, Fastsave is a retail chain store company that was doing quite well, and had more than enough financial resources to make investments. In other words, they are able and they have the capacity to take risks with no significant danger of losses. The real risk here was whether it would be worth it for them in terms of time and effort. The attitude to risk is also based on individuals who personalities vary. In the case study, individuals who are more reserve tend to be more cautious as they are realistic while the others who are more risky or outgoing tend to be more straightforward as they maintained an optimist

As stated by Prasad (2008), the managers should identify the different choices available in order to get most acceptable outcome of a decision. From searching different alternatives the managers can evade blocks in operations as choices are suitable if a particular idea goes wrong. Khanka (2000) expresses the view that selections can developed from in many ways such as can get from sources like experience, do training other organizations, and take others ideas and suggestions related in problems. Furthermore to improve alternatives solution the managers may investigation the signs of a problem for clues or fall back on intuition or result that stated by Griffin and Moorhead (2010). For an example in marketing department a non-programmed decision is compulsory the manager have to produce alternatives for raise market share. As McShane and Von Glinow (2000) pointed out that in a programmed decision is a standard operations is not to generate choice but can take out from the documented that already saved. Next an organizer should search the mission of a decision. In other words they need to define what is to be accomplished by it (Quick & Nelson, 2013). The decision criteria are important as mentioned by Dubrin (2002). The several criteria are consumers must aware of varies in quality of products, there not happen inflation, workers must consider the quality of improvements and lastly job satisfaction should not be reduce.

In contrast, the Non- Programmed decisions which are type of decisions which are non-routine and deployed to resolve non-routine problems, they are relevant in solving unique and unusual problems that arises, of which the alternatives cannot be decided in advance. Non-Programmed decisions are usually of high importance and significance with long-term consequences on organizations, such decisions are decided at the top management level.

Based on Knight’s economics view (1921), risk-taking is crucial to entrepreneurism. This view is supported by many classical theorists like Cantillon and Richard (1755) who explore that entrepreneurs bear risks or uncertainty to keep supply-demand balance. Phan (2008) also support this positive relationship and assert that entrepreneurs are risk-takers, not gamblers. However, Bula (2012) argues that