Stabalizing Wedges

6020 Words Sep 25th, 2013 25 Pages
Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies S. Pacala, et al. Science 305, 968 (2004); DOI: 10.1126/science.1100103 The following resources related to this article are available online at www.sciencemag.org (this information is current as of March 6, 2007 ):
Updated information and services, including high-resolution figures, can be found in the online version of this article at: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/305/5686/968 Downloaded from www.sciencemag.org on March 6, 2007 Supporting Online Material can be found at: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/305/5686/968/DC1 This article has been cited by 56 article(s) on the ISI Web of Science. This article has been cited
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1A). The next 50 years is a sensible horizon from several perspectives. It is the length of a career, the lifetime of a power plant, and an interval for which the technology is close enough to envision. The calculations behind Fig. 1A are explained in Section 1 of the supporting online material (SOM) text. The BAU and stabilization emissions in Fig. 1A are near the center of the cloud of variation in the large published literature (8). and climate problem over the next half-century” means to deploy the technologies and/or lifestyle changes necessary to fill all seven wedges of the stabilization triangle. Stabilization at any level requires that net emissions do not simply remain constant, but eventually drop to zero. For example, in one simple model (9) that begins with the stabilization triangle but looks beyond 2054, 500ppm stabilization is achieved by 50 years of flat emissions, followed by a linear decline of about two-thirds in the following 50 years, and a very slow decline thereafter that matches the declining ocean sink. To develop the revolutionary technologies required for such large emissions reductions in the second half of the century, enhanced research and development would have to begin immediately. Policies designed to stabilize at 500 ppm would inevitably be renegotiated periodically to take into account the results of research and development, experience with specific wedges, and revised estimates of the size of the
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