Strategic Decision Analysis with Mrt Model

On October 22, 1962, President John F. Kennedy “informed the world” that the Soviets were building secretive missile bases in Cuba, very close to Florida. President Kennedy decided to take the peaceful route in handling is major crisis. As

“Do everything in such a way that the U.S. public opinion will not be aware of this until November 4th or after November 4th…The Americans are going to have to swallow this the same way we have had to swallow the pill of missiles in Turkey,” stated Premier Nikita Khrushchev. He wanted to keep this a secret until the missiles would be operational. The Soviet Union eventually brought 45,000 troops, 80 missiles, some bombers, and several SAM sites to Cuba by sea, which were meant to shoot down U-2 planes that routinely flew over Cuba, so they would not discover the offensive missiles (Eubank 20-24). On October 15, a U-2 plane discovered offensive missiles and this was reported to President Kennedy the next morning at 9:00 AM. Kennedy didn’t seem too shocked. He simply discussed plans with his advisors, also known as the ExComm, about solutions including an invasion, air strikes, withdrawing missiles from Turkey, and blockades (Eubank 36-41). Kennedy finally came to a decision and decided to reveal it to the public through a speech on television. Kennedy’s speech on October 22, 1962 addressed the fact that he wanted Khrushchev to remove the missiles from Cuba and that Khrushchev claimed that there were no offensive missiles in Cuba. Kennedy further explained the fact that there was evidence from photographs that U-2 spy planes took over the island of Cuba. Additionally, Kennedy announced that a naval quarantine or blockade would take place on Cuba to stop ships from bringing in any offensive weapons (“Presidents Grave”). Everyone rushed to the supermarkets and stocked up on food in panic (Cullough). Soviet ships continued towards Cuba even after the speech. One of the members in the ExComm, McCone, stated, “Mr. President, we have a preliminary report which seems to indicate that some of the

The Kennedy Doctrine, which was to “Respond flexibly to communist expansion, especially guerrilla warfare” (Roskin & Berry, 2010, p. 58), was executed in this history-making event to the letter. Kennedy could have, and had the power to cease the unfolding events with an all out air strike on the Soviet Union. Some say it is due to bureaucratic politics and the accessibility of information that was provided to the National Security Council by the CIA and air force that this did not occur. In responding flexibly to what The Soviet Union and Cuba were planning, America assessed the volatile situation, forethought possible outcomes and negated all their options albeit under a tight time constraint. America’s forces were mobilized and ready to strike, had word been given nuclear war was on the cards. Kennedy wanted to give The Soviet Union an out and put a halt to a possible war, rethink the situation and allow an alternative to occur. Due to this diplomacy, The Soviet Union entered into negotiations “the Kremlin offered a deal: no Soviet missiles in Cuba if Washington promised not to invade” (Roskin & Berry, 2010, p. 87). By using the flexible response tactic, Kennedy was

Without the precise and cautious actions of President Kennedy the World as we know it today may not exist. One of the many ironies of the crisis is how uninformed the public was of the boiling situation, until the President addressed the nation on the night of October 22nd. America watched as President Kennedy spoke sternly yet eloquently about the possible days ahead, publicly warning the Soviet and Cuban leaders of the retaliations that would inevitably follow if not resolved properly. United States Foreign Policy thrived at that very moment because of the monumental effect the President’s words had on the entire

Thirteen days was all it took to bring down a world power to its most vulnerable stages. Fear consumed John F. Kennedy, the 35th President of the United States, as he was notified on October 16, 1962, that the Intelligence Community had become convinced that Russia was placing missiles and atomic weapons in Cuba. According to a U-2 that had finished a photographic mission, these missiles were pointed to the United States and capable of striking most of the major cities in the Western Hemisphere. Not only was the peace and freedom of the American people compromised, but so was the rest of the world’s fate. And the decisions of one man could essentially save the people or result in a never ending ballistic war. President John F. Kennedy was not

The Cuban Missile Crisis has long been a subject of controversy. While at the same time just the mention of the name John Fitzgerald Kennedy, the 35th President of the United States, has sparked much debate, especially regarding the Cuban Missile Crisis. In the first year of Kennedy’s presidency, November 1961, a covert program, code named Operation Mongoose, was initiated by the United States to overthrow the Castro government in Cuba. A retaliatory response by Soviet leader Nikita S. Khrushchev was the installation of nuclear armed missiles in Cuba, just ninety miles from the U.S. shore.!

The Cuban Missile Crisis was a dangerous and direct confrontation in the year 1962 between the Soviet Union and the United States over the existence of missile sites in Cuba. Nikita Khrushchev, the Soviet premier positioned Soviet military missile in Cuba that had come under the Soviet power since the victory of the Cuban Revolution (Lockwood, Lockwood and Lockwood 15). This crisis occurred during the cold war and was the instant when the two superior powers came nearer to the nuclear conflict. The crisis was distinct in a number of ways featuring miscalculations and calculations as well as secret and direct miscommunications and communications among the two sides. The dramatic catastrophe was also featured by the fact that it was mainly played out at the Kremlin level and the white house with relatively diminutive input from the respective bureaucracies normally included in the foreign policy process (Blight., et al 64). This essay will discuss the Cuban Missile Crisis and the impact of the United States and Russia.

In October 1962, the Kennedy administration was forced to manage the most dangerous confrontation of the Cold War era: The Cuban Missile Crisis. In fact, considering the threat of nuclear war at play, the Cuban Missile Crisis could be considered the most dangerous confrontation in all of human history. Because of the clear significance of this crisis, it serves as the ideal case study through which to dissect the presidency. This analysis of the Kennedy administration reveals the deepening divide between “doves” and “hawks,” the importance of Kennedy’s personal advisors, and the power Robert Kennedy had over his brother. To better understand the significance of these factors, I will do an analysis of seven meetings JFK attended from the time of the introduction of the crisis, leading up to his speech to the American public and official message to Moscow.

In the October of 1962, the world looked on at the Soviet Union and the United States as they partook in a head-to-head face off which could have potentially result in their immediate destruction. Before this event, no one had truly considered the potential damage nuclear weapons could cause, but only realized the consequences as war became a possible reality. During those crucial 13 days, John Kennedy and his administrators crafted and developed solutions that would ultimately save the United States and the world from a nuclear holocaust. During the Cuban Missile crisis, John F. Kennedy was forced to make many difficult decisions on how the United States should respond to the crisis. While listening to the many voices of reason, it became evident there was no easy solution to resolve the conflict and with many possible outcomes. For JFK, "The essence of ultimate decision [remained] impenetrable to the observer - often, indeed, to the decider himself.... There [would] always be the dark and tangled stretches in the decision-making process - mysterious even to those who may be most intimately involved”. As a president of the United States, his role was to protect his nation, and as the leader of a world power, he also had to consider the well being of the world. His decision was based off of more than just defending the country, but he took into consideration the intentions of the Soviets. John F.

While it may be true that Fidel Castro had a strong impact on the uprising of the crisis, it is crucial to consider John F. Kennedy as the person most at fault for the Cuban Missile Crisis. Kennedy, America's president at the time, is often been called the most to blame because he overreacted to the missiles in Cuba. The question is if it was an overreaction or just a precaution for the safety and security of the American people. After the CIA spotted the missiles in Cuba, they informed Kennedy and he immediately called for a “quarantine” on Cuba’s eastern coast, setting up a blockade of ships along the coastline. Although many perceive this as an act of safety and protection, it is also easy to say that it was in fact “an act of aggression”

39 United States, Congress, Guided Missile and Astronautics Intelligence Committee. “Supplement 8 to Joint Evaluation of Soviet Missile Threat in Cuba” (CIA, 28 Oct. 1962). 40 Carter 34. 41 John F. Kennedy Presidential Library & Museum, “Day 13: Oct. 28.” (Cuban Missile Crisis - John F. Kennedy Presidential Library & Museum). 42 Frederick A. O. Schwarz, Democracy in the Dark: the Seduction of Government Secrecy. (The New Press, 2015). 43 Carter 35.

On one of the following days, Kennedy asked if the Air Force could take out all of the missiles in Cuba. The Air Force then told the President that with that process there would be 10-20,000 civilian casualties. Kennedy then decided to set up a blockade around Cuba. US ships prepared for a quarantine. The press then learned about the nuclear missles and questioned them about it, the President asked the reporters not to reveal the news so he could announce it to the American people on TV. The Soviets had instrustion to launch the missiles within minutes of Kennedy’s speech. After Castro listened to the President’s speech he moblized all of Cuba’s military forces.

In order to understand the importance of the Cuban Missile Crisis in American history one must first understand the Cold War drama, Castro’s rise to power, and the American operations that set up the crisis. “The term Cold War refers

“The Cuban Missile Crisis, 1962: A National Security Archive Documents Reader” edited by Laurence Chang and

For this reason, I would like to investigate the extent to which John F. Kennedy’s decision-making process changed from the Bay of Pigs Invasion to the Cuban Missile crisis during his presidency. I chose the Bay of Pigs Invasion and the Cuban Missile Crisis because the first is an event in John. F. Kennedy’s presidency before he gained experience from this job and the latter is an event from after he was acquainted with the presidential role.