Strategic Financial Analysis - Diageo Whiskey Company

Here is a rundown of the variables we used to first determine the cash flows for Years 0 through 10: depreciation of equipment over the 10 years, sales minus COGS to identify gross profit, summed expenses (advertising, start-up, and Jell-o erosion only; the test market expense in Year 1 is considered a sunk cost and thus should not be included), and subtracted taxes to come up with the cash flow. When assessing the below issues, the team concluded the following

The premium wine segment is quite concentrated with high barriers to entry making mergers and acquisitions a strong and prevalent growth strategy. With industry analysts forecasting the demand for premium wine to grow at 8% to 10% per year, many former non-rivals are now becoming a threat. Jug wine producers are entering the premium market and beer and spirit producers

The dynamics of the global wine industry are better understood through a brief history of wine as well as an overview of the wine making process. Some countries have longer historical and cultural ties with wine then others and that can affect the quality and perception of the product in the eyes of the consumer. Also, the conditions in which the wine grapes are raised and the processes used to make the wine can create a superior wine and therefore a competitive advantage.

Diageo was created when Grand Metropolitan, plc and Guiness, plc merged in 1997. While the Diageo name is not well known to consumers, its brands are among the most famous including Guinness, Smirnoff, Johnnie Walker and Cuervo. The company recently decided to focus on a strategy to grow through its spirits, wine and beer businesses and divest of its Pillsbury and Burger King subsidiaries. This case study will focus on the proposed capital structure decisions of Diageo.

Mortensen’s cost of capital estimates are used for a variety of purposes at both the divisional and corporate levels. Examples include internal analyses such as financial accounting, performance assessment and capital budgeting, while others are used for strategic planning purposes such as merger and acquisition, as well as stock repurchase decisions (Luehrman and Heilprin, 2009, pg.1). When used at the divisional rather than corporate level, special consideration should be given to the fact that Midland’s divisions are not publicly traded entities, and therefore do not have individual Beta

The buyer’s power within the wine industry varies between different places in the world. There are for example strategic differences between Europe and the “New World”. The “New World” includes countries like the US, Australia, Chile and South Africa. In Europe there is a big competition

Penman (2007) had stated that historical cost may provide useful margins on turnover for forecasting operating cash flows in a going concern business. On the other hand, when valuing a portfolio of marketable investments with fair value, it tends to be more reliable. Stakeholder of Woolworths includes investors, creditors, lenders and so forth, their needs of accounting information are different. Some of the investors are interested in the information using fair value approach for them to decide whether to buy or sell their shares, some of the lenders and creditors are interested in the current value of assets and liabilities of the entity to decide the ability of the entity to pay off a debt when due. Further, a particular stakeholder need more than one measurement approach to satisfy their needs of accounting information (e.g. considering to engage with Woolworths). Therefore, mixed measurement approach would be more appropriate to satisfy each stakeholder needs of accounting information (Rankin et al., 2012; Dvorakova, D., 2011).

Bonny Doon currently has an enviable position in the 1990’s Californian wine-producing industry. The company has successfully differentiated itself from its competition and achieved a first mover advantage in terms of selling “undervalued” wines. However, due to increased rivalry and a changing and increasingly challenging market,

in our calculations, as this company exhibited dramatic value differences to others in the sample, (likely to skew our results and prove misleading). Using the average of the revised sample field for each ratio, we inserted Torrington’s values where appropriate to generate an entity value. The findings generated two values for Torrington, 606 million and 398 million. Taking the average of these two numbers, Torrington exhibited a relative value of 502.41 million. Because of the lack of related information given in the case, and the often large differences in measures amongst competitors, different capital structures, internal management strategies, there remained many unknowns in our model. We decided it would be best to use this valuation to reaffirm our assumptions in our DCF valuation. (Please see exhibits)

The Irish whiskey industry in particular has suffered tremendously in the 20th century. in 1779, Ireland had 1,200 distilleries that accounted for nearly 60% of the world market. However, into the 80s, there were only two remaining distilleries. At its lowest point, Irish whiskey sales accounted for only 2% of scotch whiskey sales, and seemed that it would inevitably be obsolete. However, there was a

As discounted cash flow method assumes all equity financed acquisition, it presents more comparable value for the real option values shown. The value of Apache’s possibility to decide whether to exploit the reserves equals the difference between DCF value and the real option value.

The free cash flow method is used to gauge “a company’s cash flow beyond that necessary to grow at the current rate… [to ensure companies] make capital expenditures to continue to exist and to grow” (Drake, n.d.). Calculation of free cash flows utilizes various components, including a firm’s value, cash flow forecasts, a firm’s capital structure, the cost of capital, and/or discounted cash flows.

Up until 2000 capital structure policy at Diageo was conservative, maintaining quite a high the [book] equity-to-assets ratio inherited from its predecessors:

In 2001 there were over 1 million wine producers worldwide, and no firm accounted for more than 1% of global retail sales. Because of this, it would be nearly impossible for the Robert Mondavi winery to dominate sales in any region. Due to Mondavi’s efforts, the winery became one of America’s most innovative,

We valued the company using four different methods; Net Present Value, Internal Rate of Return, Modified Internal Rate of Return and Profitability Index. We began with the Net Present Value, or NPV, calculation. NPV values an investment’s profitability based on the projected future cash inflows and outflows of the investment, discounted back to present value using the WACC. The calculations for NPV are presented in Appendix 2. We started by separating cash inflows and outflows by each year. We used Bob Prescott’s estimates for the revenue per year and related operating costs of cost of goods sold as