Systems Thinking : Processes And Dynamics

3006 Words13 Pages
Faline Jett
POLS 612/Sun
Graduate Paper
November 18, 2014

Systems Thinking: Processes and Dynamics

The concept of systems thinking started in the 1920’s and was considered a fundamental aspect of several disciplines, most notably among them the fields of engineering and biology, and scholars in these fields noted in their observations that there were many aspects of which scientific analysis could not explore. Most scientists use a tool called the Scientific Method, popularized by Karl Popper from his ideas from his work in 1938-1963. His idea of practicing science is to formulate a hypothesis, try to prove it wrong, and then from your results form a new hypothesis (2014, Weaver).
While this can increase our knowledge base and
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Why then have these supposed tools for dealing with complexity not empowered us to escape the illogic of the arms race?
"The answer lies in the same reason that sophisticated tools of forecasting and business analysis, as well as elegant strategic plans, usually fail to produce dramatic breakthroughs in managing a business. They are all designed to handle the sort of complexity in which there are many variables: detail complexity. But there are two types of complexity. The second type is dynamic complexity, situations where cause and effect are subtle, and where the effects over time of interventions are not obvious. Conventional forecasting, planning, and analysis methods are not equipped to deal with dynamic complexity. Mixing many ingredients in a stew involves detail complexity, as does following a complex set of instructions to assemble a machine, or taking inventory in a discount retail store. But none of these situations is especially complex dynamically.
"When the same action has dramatically different effects in the short run and the long, there is dynamic complexity. When an action has one set of consequences locally and a very different set of consequences in another part of the system, there is dynamic complexity. When obvious interventions produce nonobvious consequences, there is dynamic
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