THIRA Scenarios

While hijacked airplanes on 9/11 caused the most fatalities of any single terrorist incident, the majority of terrorist attacks are carried out by conventional explosives and secondary devices. This is a broad category that includes incendiary devices, pressure bombs, car bombs, and any other explosive device. These weapons are low cost, low tech, and easy to construct. Out of the five CBRNE categories, explosives are by far the most likely hazard to be encountered (FEMA,

Executive Order 13224 on Terrorist Financing under the guidelines of the United States (U.S) National Emergency Act (Pub. L. 94-412) went into effect on September 24, 2001 by President George W. Bush and remains active, for the reason that President Barak Obama, kept the order in an uninterrupted state of emergency throughout his presidency. Due to the guidelines of the statute, national state of emergencies expires one year after enactment; therefore President Donald Trump will has the option of renewing the order before it expires on September 23, 2017.

As we move into a new era were a more robust and urgent homeland security program is needed, it is important to talk about how officials are managing all of the risk. There are a multitude of threats; from terrorism, where tactics are all the more unconventional an unpredictable, to climate change, with extreme weather conditions causing severe droughts or other catastrophic storms. The risk accepted by federal officials must be weighed and prioritized in a manner that is conducive to the longevity of the nation but also eliminates political or other personal agenda. To ensure a standardized approach the Department of Homeland Security adopted a risk management. The following will look at defining what risk management is as well as an example of how it is being incorporated within the homeland security enterprise and how doing so is of benefit.

Across the United States, there have been natural and human-caused disasters which have led to increasing levels of death, injury, property damage, and more affecting business and government services. In addition, the negative impact causes an even immense impact on families and individuals. People and property in the state of Arizona are at risk from a variety of hazards that have the potential for causing widespread loss of life and damage to property, infrastructure and the environment. The 2016 Arizona Threat Identification Risk Assessment (THIRA) are the results of a collaborative effort by the Arizona Department of Homeland Security, Arizona Department of Emergency and Military Affairs-Division of Emergency Management, and Arizona

Local protective measure planning equips first responders with the knowledge needed to organize efficient response results in the event of an emergency. Structured open dialogue between local emergency jurisdictions enables responders to delegate the appropriate individuals and equipment resources to the impacted local areas requiring the most aid following a terror event. By establishing a streamlined communication framework, local emergency responders can collaborate their efforts and resources to promote collective well-being. When a local emergency plan specifies what responders and resources belong where and at what time, response overlap and shortages can be avoided. Unionized response action established prior to a terrorist incident, serves to mitigate the risks, hazards and threat of injury or harm the people and property of the US face when a terrorism event occurs. Furthermore, a structured local emergency operations plan for a hazardous materials incident involving a terrorist is imperative to public health and safety, as the blueprint outlines protective measures the public can follow to minimize their exposure to dangerous substances. The people of a community affected by a terror event can be warned and notified of the event’s associated dangerous materials, which threaten their well-being, through a variety of methods such as warning sirens or horns, emergency alert systems, automated

Furthermore, there is not enough consideration to whether the public is willing to accept the risk of not securing LPHC targets. Public opinion has the power to sway policy making. However, the department has two critical analytic challenges and the first is prioritizing resources most effectively to prepare and prevent the hazards. This includes natural and technological hazards. The very nature of terrorism is a difficult hazard to properly characterize. In addition, the Department of Homeland Security must develop policies that help at the community and general pubic levels. In developing policies at the general public level evacuation plans will be in place to avert much of the panic (Eller, Gerber

As communities and public safety agencies prepare their communities to deal with possible terrorism, community policing models are effectively drawn upon for a better enforcement of preparedness. Efforts by federal and state governments are mindful of the production for events of the 1960 's Civil Defense but as a result of 9/11, there has been more action for cities and towns to develop response plans for any type of local terrorist incidents. The safety of the public is most important and falls into the hands of government agencies. Community policing encourages community input and involvement.

Living the United State when one thinks of a terrorist attacks often their mind will first go to a larger scale attack such as the events of September 11th 2001. “September 11, 2001 changed the United States forever, the terrorist attack that day marked a dramatic escalation in a trend toward more destructive terrorist attacks which began in the 1980s. It also reflected a trend toward more indiscriminate targeting among international terrorists. The vast majority of the more than 3,000 victims of the attack were civilians. In addition, the attack represented the first known case of suicide attacks carried out by international terrorists in the United States.” (Waston, 2002) However as the years have gone by we have come to learn that terrorist attacks are not always on a large scale and that even one person who is inspired by the ideologies of a terrorist group without being directly connected to them can carry out attacks. Those that engage in this type of terrorism are referred to as lone wolf terrorist. A recent example of such an even was the mass shooting at the San Bernardino Inland Regional Center in December of 2015.

The ability of the Department of Homeland Security to effectively manage risk is vital to national security. Risk in general, is something that is permanent but because this is known, strategies can be used to mitigate situations as they present themselves. Government managers must manage risk in a complex environment taking into consideration the diverse missions and multiple objectives of public agencies (Hardy, 2014). The role of risk management within the homeland security enterprise was managed by best and worst case scenario planning. This is something that is inevitable as we are faced within a definite variety of threats. One way to grade or rank threats is through worst-case analysis. As this analysis can be used for worst-case scenarios the federal government cannot leave out lower ranking situations (Roberts, 2007). Since the Department of Homeland Security is charged with managing risk within the enterprise, a basic equation is used to help figure out different variables and how they would be affected.

The National Response Framework is a guide designed to assist local, State, and Federal governments in developing functional capabilities and identifying resources based on hazard identification and risk assessment. It outlines the operating structure and identifies key roles and responsibilities. It established a framework to identify capabilities based on resources and the current situation no matter the size or scale. It integrates organizational structures and standardizes how the Nation at all levels plans to react to incidents. The suspected terrorist attack will have health, economic, social, environment and political long-term effects for my community. This is why it is essential that local government’s

After the 9/11 terrorist attacks against the United States, a series of risk management evaluations were created by the US Federal Government to assess the future risks the homeland was going to face. When the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) was officially created in 2002, more effective risk management assessments were re-designed to evaluate the past and present dangers, prevent them and respond successfully to more terrorist attacks. Since 2001 until 2007, a development of risk assessment has been divided in phases to be able to reach a better formula that would analyze the risk within the homeland security and provide the appropriate fund to homeland security enterprise.

Data obtained by assessing social vulnerability must be implemented within each phase of the emergency management process; mitigation, response, and recovery. First, to effectively respond and recover from incidents emergency management agencies must concentrate on the mitigation phase to prevent incidents from happening in the first place. This is achieved through a thorough hazard/vulnerability analysis (HVA). This type of analysis assesses the risk of physical, economic, and social vulnerability within all communities of a given jurisdiction (Lindell et al., 2006, p. 165). Additionally, the basis of the HVA allows emergency managers to effectively plan for disaster by creating pre-planned responses to disasters (rather than improvised response) and staging resources to locations with the highest probability of risk; ultimately contributing to the mitigation and response phases.

Risk is defined as a potential for an unwanted outcome resulting from an incident, event, or occurrence, as determined by its likelihood and the associated consequences (Baranoff et al, 2011). In order for risk to be considered insurable, it must meet two conditions provided by the insurance industry. One is that the risk must identify and quantify or estimate the chances of an event occurring with the likelihood of losses incurred. Secondly, the insurance industry must be able to set premiums for each potential customer or class of customers (Groner, (n.d)). If these two conditions are met, then the risk is considered to insurable. To assess if terrorism is insurable within the context of these two conditions we will begin by analyzing the first condition. It

Nearly every community has some sort of community risk, threat, and assessment plan that takes into account one of the six potential risks that are of concern to homeland security. Though each of these plans will likely differ from one another, many communities will have the same types of information in their plans. This essay will look at the Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment Guide (THIRA), the Community Risk Reduction Planning Guide, as well as FEMA’s National Preparedness plan. Any combination of these guides are a good starting point for every community in America. At top of every communities list as well as the nation is the protection of the critical infrastructure. Loss of infrastructure regardless of how big or small the community is could have very crippling effects on that community.

One of the best guidance documents for these communities is the Comprehensive Preparedness Guide 201 (CPG201). In this guide, communities will complete the Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment. The THIRA has a detailed four-step process in developing a robust Risk Assessment to allow the community to develop its plans. The first step is to “identify the threats and hazards of concern” to the community. Some of the challenges described by the Department of Homeland Security may not be applicable to the community or may pose extremely limited threat. The second step in to “give the threats context” which states how