Testing the Capital Asset Pricing Model Essay

Fama and French’s three factor model attempts to explain the variation of stock prices through a multifactor model that includes a size factor and BE/ME factor in addition to the beta risk factor. Fama-French model essentially extended the CAPM (which breaks up cause of variation of stock price into systematic risk which is non-diversifiable and idiosyncratic risk which is diversifiable) by introducing these two additional factors. Fama and French find that stocks with high beta didn’t have consistently higher returns than stocks with low beta and this indicates that beta was not a useful measure under their model. Their model is based on research findings that sensitivity of movements of the size and BE/ME factor constituted risk, and

The extracted data used includes monthly returns from January 1972 to July 2011. The assets are selected so that the portfolio contains the largest, most liquid, and most tradable assets. The choice of such a variety of assets across several markets was used in order to generate a large cross sectional dispersion in average return. It helped to reveal new factor exposure and define a general framework of the correlated value and momentum effects in various asset classes.

Week 1 – Introduction – Financial Accounting (Review) Week 2 – Financial Markets and Net Present Value Week 3 – Present Value Concepts Week 4 – Bond Valuation and Term Structure Theory Week 5 – Valuation of Stocks Week 6 – Risk and Return – Problem Set #1 Due Week 7* – Midterm (Tuesday*) Week 8 - Portfolio Theory Week 9 – Capital Asset Pricing Model Week 10 – Arbitrage Pricing Theory Week 11 – Operation and Efficiency of Capital Markets Week 12 – Course Review – Problem Set #2 Due

Here we choose VW NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ data as market returns, because it’s value weighted and more reliable. The results show CSC’s equity beta = 2.27, QRG’s equity beta = 1.79.

1. True or False: According to the CAPM, a stock's expected return is positively related to its beta.

9. (10 points) You are provided with the following monthly expected returns, each of which is represented by E(Ri), and betas for the following stocks. Please estimate the capital asset pricing model and draw conclusions about the significance and realism of the results. (Note: Please use conventional tests of the R-squared and coefficients.) On the basis of your results, please name at least three of the stocks that you would recommend as “buys.”

CAPM results can be compared to the best expected rate of return that investor can possibly earn in other investments with similar risks, which is the cost of capital. Under the CAPM, the market portfolio is a well-diversified, efficient portfolio representing the non-diversifiable risk in the economy. Therefore, investments have similar risk if they have the same sensitivity to market risk, as measured by their beta with the market portfolio.

‘The Capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is a very useful model and it is used widely in the industry even though it is based on very strong assumptions. Discuss in the light of recent developments in the area.’

To justify whether it works, we first ran a regression on the Three-Factor Fama French Model (Market Excess Return, SMB and HML) from Jan 1972 to Dec 2012 respectively for the High-, 5-, Low-, and High-Minus-Low Portfolio. Then, we added momentum into the model to create a four-factor model (Momentum, Market Excess Return, SMB and HML) for the same period on a monthly basis. (See Exhibit 2).

The historic average returns from 1950 to 1996 and from 1929 to 1996 are given In Exhibit 3. We chose the latter time period as we considered it would give us a more reliable estimate of the risk-free rate by discounting both the Second World War and the Great Depression. It is necessary to evaluate the expected length of the project and utilize a risk free rate applicable for the same time period. Ameritrade is investing $100 million dollars in technology, which is considered a long-term investment, in order to become the largest brokerage firm. We consider their

CAPM on the other hand is based on microeconomic ideas such as concave utilities and costless diversification. Macroeconomic events mentioned include interest rates or the cost of labor, causes the systematic risk that affects the returns of all stocks. On the other hand the firm-specific events are the unexpected microeconomic events that affect the returns of specific firms for example the death of key people that would affects the firm, but would have a insignificant effect on the

We have used the data from Jan.2007-Dec.2011 (60 data points) to re-estimate βi’s which were averaged across securities within portfolios in order to obtain 10 initial portfolio βpt using the following regression

As indicated by the case study S&P 500 index was use as a measure of the total return for the stock market. Our standard deviation of the total return was used as a one measure of the risk of an individual stock. Also betas for individual stocks are determined by simple linear regression. The variables were: total return for the stock as the dependent variable and independent variable is the total return for the stock. Since the descriptive statistics were a lot, only the necessary data was selected (below table.)

The analysis of this paper will derive the validity of the Fama and French (FF) model and the efficiency of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). The comparison of the Fama and French Model and CAPM (Sharpe, 1964 & Lintner, 1965) uses real time data of stock market to practise its efficacy. The implication of the function in realistic conditions would justify the utility of the CAPM theory. The theory suggests that the expected return demanded by investors on a risky asset depends on the risk-free rate of interest, the expected return on the market portfolio, the variance of the return on the market portfolio, and

Richard Roll, and University and Auburn, University of Washington, and University of Chicago educated economist, began his career researching the effect of major events of stock prices. This experience likely helped him reach the two conclusions he makes in his 1977 “A Critique Of The Asset Pricing Theory’s Tests”, one of the earliest and most influential arguments against CAPM. In the paper, Roll makes two major claims: that CAPM is actually a redundant equation that just further proves the concept of mean-variance efficiency, and that it is impossible to conclusively prove CAPM. His first claim relates to mean-variance efficiency: the idea that mathematically one must be able to create a portfolio that offers the most return for a given amount of risk. Roll claims that all CAPM is doing is testing a portfolio’s mean variance efficiency, and not actually modeling out projected future returns. The second claim in the paper is that there is not enough data about market returns for CAPM to ever prove conclusive. Even if modern technologies could help alleviate some of the burden of testing market returns for publicly traded equities, there is still no way to account for the returns of less liquid markets, where there is less public information. This means it is impossible for