The Annual Retail Trade Survey

The retail sales indicator measures the dollar value of merchandise sold within the retail industry, which includes traditional retailers selling via internet but excludes companies conducting non-retail operations such as travel, ticketing, and financial services (“FAQ”). The retail sales is a leading indicator because it gives us a glimpse of what we can expect in the following months in the economy. It is important to keep in mind that leading indicators are not always accurate and are subject to revisions. The retail sales indicator covers the previous month’s data and is typically released on or around the 13th of each month. The report is usually presented in one of two ways: with auto sales being counted and without auto sales being counted since auto sales can skew the data due to their high price (“Investopedia: retail sales”, n.d.). Companies of all sizes are used in the survey, from large corporations such as Wal-Mart to independent mom and pop shops. The methodology behind the survey is conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department Commerce (United States Bureau: “Monthly & Annual retail trade: Annual retail trade survey methodology”, 2015).

Based on the seasonality factor for each month, the forecasted year-four monthly sales rounded to the dollar (in $1000s) are:

* Our research clearly shows that retailers believe consumer spending will continue to be constricted throughout 2012. The fear of unemployment, particularly for those working in the public sector, will continue to depress consumer sentiment. Combined with inflation rates that will outstrip wage increases, and consumers continuing to pay down debt, it makes top-line growth difficult. (RW 2012)

In a report by Keynote (p.1, 2012) it was estimated that the UK Clothing Retailing Market (Womens, Mens and Childrens clothing and clothing accessories) reached sales of £43.1 billion and increased by 3.3% in 2011. Many consumer markets have been affected by the recession with the clothing retailing market being no exception. It has been slow to recover from the recession and so the market is still not reaching

Economists use the retail sales data in their models to make predictions on a wide variety of economic issues. Again, because retails sales accounts for such a large proportion of GDP, it is used along with other factors as a way to estimate the direction of the quarterly and annual GDP numbers. Used in conjunction with data such as the consumer price index, it is also very relevant for inflation forecasts as the data can offer glimpses into the affects of rising or falling prices. This in turn is closely tied to predictions for the direction of future interest rates as potential additional government action. Finally the retail sales data can be used to estimate

Payless ShoeSource focuses their segmentation business strategy on the demographics of their consumers. “Payless ShoeSource targets as its main customers women from 18 to 44 years of age with household incomes of less than $75,000, and it estimates that in any given year, 40 percent of the women in this target group buy at least one pair of footwear at a Payless store” (fundinguniverse.com, N/D, para. 3). Payless also acquired Stride Rite in 2007, taking on the children’s demographic. “With this acquisition Payless is hoping to attract another breed of customers – those willing to pay a little more for their footwear - as some of its children 's shoes, for example, cost around $50 per pair” (Moon, 2007, para. 3).

Market plans must target today’s market, as well as adapt and change to reach tomorrows market. Additionally a market plan must be able to forecast what the market will look like 20-50+ years from now and provide a prediction on how to meet market trends of the future.

Consumer confidence is a poll of 5,000 people asking how they feel about current and future business conditions for the job market and their own income prospect for six months. A downward trend means less consumer spending. The expectation index which “has to dip below 80 and stay there for two months or so before we consider it a warning of recession,” gives a good reading of what lies ahead (Updegrave, p. 3). The advance retail sales report measures consumer spending by sampling retailers and the results determine the direction of the economy. Again, higher consumer spending means a rise in the economy, while lower consumer spending means a decline in the economy. Industrial production includes purchasing managers’ index, industrial production index, and capacity utilization index. The purchasing managers’ index surveys manufacturing executives to compute an index of industrial activity. When the index level falls below 42.7, the economy is falling (Updegrave, p. 4) The Industrial production index measures how much industries are producing and the capacity utilization index measures the efficiency of production capacity. This is used as an inflation indicator. If the index is up to 85, inflation is increasing because prices will have to increase

Approximately two-thirds of the United States’ gross domestic product (GDP) comes from retail consumption (Farfan, 2014). The U.S. retail industry employs over 14 million people (Farfan, 2014). With the unemployment levels slowly lowering as the economy bounces back from the recession, the job market for retail positions at all levels is very competitive (Farfan, 2014).

Retailing is the sale of goods and services to a consumer. The retailer is the last link in the distribution chain. A retailer 's purchases are usually made from a wholesaler, who in turn buys from a manufacturer (Retail, 2014). According to the U.S retail industry, two-thirds of the total US GDP comes from retail consumption. The latest annual report of the U.S department of Commerce for 2013 says that total retail sales in 2011 was $4.7 trillion an increase of 8% from 2010 numbers. Retailers have turned from being an intermediary between the manufactures and consumers to a visible power who can influence both producing and consuming decisions. Be it the vast expanses of the countryside or the crowded streets of cities, a Walmart, Target, or Staples are a common sight.

The second article was by Anthony L. Liuzzo and it focused on forecasting holiday retail sales in 2013. Although our purpose was to forecast revenue, we gained more insight into the variables that retail companies use in their regression models. We selected consumer debt, inflation, and consumer confidence based on this article. Variables such as unemployment rate and disposable income were discussed as the underlying causes of the variables used in the regression model. For instance, the author links unemployment rate as a factor that determines the level of consumer confidence.

Retail is the selling of services or goods to consumers to gain a profit. The retail industry is one of the most important and profitable industries in the world economy today. Total annual U.S. retail sales have increased an average of 4.5% between 1993 and 2015, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The simple idea of creating retail shops, discount stores, and super shops has altered the world of shoppers and consumers worldwide. An estimated two-thirds of the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) comes from retail consumption (2015 US Retail Industry Overview - Info, Facts, Research, Data, Trivia," 2015).The retail industry is generally divided into several types of retail stores such as, department stores, supermarkets, convenience stores, online stores and malls.

Summary: According to government officials, retail sales have significantly risen over the past month, which is a positive sign for the economy. When gas prices dropped, economist, expected a higher amount of sales, instead people chose to pay off debt and save extra money in their savings account. Due to the previous 2001 recession, people have lost confidence, and are choosing

Macro-economic developments slowing down retail sales ................................................................ 26 Increasing concentration and strong competition.............................................................................. 27 Changing consumer

Vietnam’s retail sector is currently alike to Thailand’s around 10-15 years ago, in terms of regulations and consumption behavior. Given that the regulatory environment has yet to be liberalized in Vietnam, BJC has formed joint-ventures (JVs) with local partners and expanded its distribution network aggressively ahead of anticipated market liberalization in 2016 - after the AEC comes into place. Currently, both Thai-An and Thai Corp have a combined distribution network of around 130,000 outlets nationwide, with total sales contributions of around THB3.0bn. BJC expects this distribution network to reach 230,000 outlets, with sales value of around THB9.0bn in 2016, implying compound annual growth rate of around 28%.