The Best Economic Environment for Inflation Targeting

There are only a few ways to increase production, which include hire more workers, increase hours, buy more equipment, and take advantage of technology to produce more. The government must form a way that the economy doesn’t grow too slow or fast so they can prevent disastrous events. The importance of modern currency lies in its purchasing power. Inflation signals the rising prices, but the way to think about it isn’t like that, but that the currency’s purchasing power decreases. With hyperinflation, fixed loans are impossible because nobody wants to risk it when the money can potentially become worthless. With moderate inflation, it can destroy wealth if it isn’t managed properly. Inflation is good for those who owe debt, but bad for those who lend money. Inflation may be bad, but deflation is worse. Prices fall because the economy is broken, but now the economy is broken because the prices have fallen.

1. What is inflation? Inflation is an increase in prices for goods and services (What is Inflation?).

It widely recognized that the monetary policy within a country should be primarily concerned with the pursuit of price stability. However, it is still not clear how this objective can be achieved most effectively. This debate remains unsettled, but an increasing number of countries have adopted inflation targeting as their monetary policy framework. (Dr E J van der Merwe, 2002) This topic of Inflation targeting is a subject which immediately conjures different perceptions from different people. Many feel that low inflation should be a main aim of monetary policy, while others (such as trade union activists) believe that a higher growth rate to stimulate jobs should be the main concern.

There have been different views from John Maynard Keynes, Milton Friedman and central banks when it comes to inflation. However, what both John Maynard Keynes and Milton Friedman can agree on is the fact that inflation is seen to be a great evil. Moreover, the central banks interpret inflation as moderate being the fact that some inflation is seen to them as tolerable. Historically, Friedman and Keynes have had disputes on a better system for the control of inflation. For instance, Friedman put forward the monetary policy for the government to use in order to keep interest rates to stabilize an economy, whereas Keynes believed the government should be in control of inflation by the amount of spending produced between goods and services. Central banks have viewed both reasoning’s to Keynes and Friedman’s theories and decided the monetary policy is the best route for an economy to take. A great example of this can be illustrated in Canada with inflation rates only being kept between 1 and 3 percent. The other factors that central banks might have to deal with in other countries would be the change in political views and how much power the government has over central banks to control cash flow throughout their respective countries. The central banks must also avoid dealing with poor decisions made by government leaders which could affect the economy tremendously. In many underdeveloped countries, there have been a lot struggles even until present day where government leaders

Monetary policy, ‘The government’s policy relating to the money supply, bank interest rates, and borrowing’ (Collin: 130), is another tool available to the government to control inflation. Figure 4 shows, that by increasing the interest rate (r), from r1 to r2, the supply of money (ms) is reduced from Q1

Robert Mundell’s Trilemma, also known as the Impossible Trinity, states that a nation cannot realize monetary policy autonomy, free capital movements, and exchange rate stability at the same time. While either of the two goals can combine and actualize in any given period, as a simultaneous and three-fold effort, each objective cannot coexist. Together they are simply incompatible. Thus, and holding true to the tradeoff-nature of economics, Mundell’s undisputed theory illustrates that in order for a nation to attain its preferred monetary goals it must give up one desired option. Nevertheless, it is no easy decision. Before any resolution is made, nations must invest substantial time and energy into understanding the consequences at stake because the policies that they do deicide to implement are not only felt at a national or international level but personally amongst those that they govern.

Usually this goal is "macroeconomic stability" - low unemployment, low inflation, economic growth, and a balance of external payments. Monetary policy is usually administered by a Government appointed "Central Bank", the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve Bank

The majority of central banks have struggled to achieve, let alone sustain, their inflation targets. Despite significant differences with their historic experiences with rising prices, the Fed, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) have all set their inflation targets at 2%. Their subsequent failure to achieve this goal has resulted in accommodative policy being left intact or, in some cases, even intensified, resulting in some instances to internal dissent, most notably on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). All of the aforementioned central banks will understand the critical role of expectations in determining the inflationary backdrop. Given the differing experiences of inflation in the US, UK, Eurozone and Japan, there is no reason whatsoever why these countries should have analogous levels of inflationary expectations held by the private sector and, therefore, why their central banks should adopt the same inflation target. Both the ECB and BoJ have considerably undershot their respective inflation goals and they have responded with ever more aggressive quantitative easing. Meanwhile, the BoJ has, once again, been forced to trim its inflation forecasts in another apparent blow to its credibility. The BoJ now believes the 2% target will not be achieved until March 2018. If the forecast is correct, then their objective will have been reached three years later

dollar. In dollarization, the country abolishes its own currency and uses a foreign currency, such as the U.S. dollar, for all domestic transactions. 6. Emerging market exchange rate regimes. High capital mobility is forcing emerging market nations to choose between free-floating regimes and currency board or dollarization regimes. What are the main outcomes of each of these regimes from the perspective of emerging market nations? There is no doubt that for many emerging markets a currency board, dollarization, and freely-floating exchange rate regimes are all extremes. In fact, many experts feel that the global financial marketplace will drive more and more emerging market nations towards one of these extremes. As illustrated by Exhibit 2.5, there is a distinct lack of “middle ground” left between rigidly fixed and freely floating. In anecdotal support of this argument, a poll of the general population in Mexico in 1999 indicated that 9 out of 10 people would prefer dollarization over a floating-rate peso. Clearly, there are many in the emerging markets of the world who have little faith in their leadership and institutions to implement an effective exchange rate policy.

Inflation is blazing subject that delays the economic development of the country. It is becoming extra hectic to economists, politicians and even people also. Factors on both demand and supply effect the inflation. So the stabilization strategies ought to consequently focus on both demand manipulation as well as

| Advocates of active monetary and fiscal policy view the economy as inherently unstable and believe that policy can manage aggregate demand, and thereby, production and employment, to offset the inherent instability. When aggregate demand is inadequate to ensure full employment, policymakers should boost government spending, cut taxes, and expand money supply. However, when aggregate demand is excessive, risking higher inflation, policymakers should cut government spending, raise taxes, and reduce the money supply. Such policy actions put

By the beginning of the 1980s, double-digit rates of inflation had become so pervasive among industrialized economies that they were viewed as a major deterrent to global economic growth. Since then, an explicit policy goal of low inflation has become a mantra for policymakers, and many countries, such as the U.K., New Zealand, Australia, Japan, Sweden, and the eleven countries under the European Central Bank (ECB), have enacted fundamental reforms to achieve that goal. Specifically, they have made their central banks more independent and thus insulated them from the temptations of inflationary finance; furthermore, in most of these cases, as well as in the U.S., central banks have practiced a greater degree of openness or transparency

A fixed exchange rate regime will offer an economy greater stability in international prices and therefore encourage trade. Additionally, for developing countries a fixed rate will assist in promoting institutional discipline as the country will adopt restrictive monetary and fiscal policies that foster an anti-inflationary environment. A significant weakness of a fixed rate is that it is subject to destabilizing speculative attacks which could lead to financial meltdowns and devastating economic contractions. A floating exchange rate regime allows central banks to combat macroeconomic factors such as unemployment, inflation, and interest rates without having to worry about the effect on exchange rates. However, developing countries whose economies depend on trade will be reluctant to allow their exchange rates to fluctuate freely.

As we tried to answer this question; the need for enhancing the Cukierman index by adding extra variables both for governance and monetary stability was apparent. The variable selection and index extension was made with the help of Cukierman, Webb and Neyapti(1992) methodology together with Haan & Amtenbrink (2003) and Neyapti (2003)’s methodologies. Foreign exchange policy part of the index is created with the help of a survey by Fry, Goodhart and Almeida (1996) about central banks of developing countries. According to our new estimations, we found that after the enactment of law 4651, the independence of CBRT rose to an approximate value of 87%.

How should The Central bank tackle the inflationary situation? What are the measure(s) it should adopt?