preview

The Black Swan Thesis

Decent Essays
Open Document

Nassim Taleb—author of The Black Swan—has some ideas about other ways that unexpected events, even theoretically foreseeable ones that we ignorantly ignored. He questions the notion that the global and U.S. elite’s perpetual mindset should be one of shock and awe, as is the case—he wonders why even those in elected office willfully remain ignorant to the point of harming their constituents in various ways. 2008’s housing crisis—foreseen by the best analysts and ignored by realist banker—damaged millions of people’s economic standing, and the whole event transpired as a result of a bubble inflated thanks to human greed. The Middle East, Taleb and Blyth say, was the same way; a grenade with the pin already removed, yet somehow ignored by politicians …show more content…

Both Republicans and Democrats have played their parts in adding fragility into the market and the government that regulates it, leading to a system where a simple housing bubble can bring every facet of a nation’s economic system to its knees overnight—all of this because of ignorance of uncertainty: that illusion of omniscience. The Black Swan posits that the unfortunate events of September 11th never would have happened if the FBI and CIA had cooperated in sharing intelligence data, or had a legislator thought those 900,000 pound missiles might be used by terrorists if we aren’t careful. As with the Arab Spring—by all measures both predictable and overdue per various historians who see the world’s affairs to revolve around a cycle of peace and …show more content…

Historically, however, there need be no surprises when the Reagan administration gave ample evidence as to what happens when the federal government covers banks’ mistakes. Economists and social scientists like to believe that black swans are elusive and attack without warning, but Reagan to Greenspan is just one example of evidence to the contrary. Synthesizing, the United States has granted the Afghani government over one-trillion U.S. Dollars in the past sixteen years, to no avail. “Re-asses and re-inform” is the mantra that keeps the green flowing, but without real progress, only a regime founded on insanity and imprudence would continue pumping billions of dollars annually into a flaming

Get Access