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The Change For Transformative Change

Decent Essays

Before Winston Peters selected Jacinda Ardern as prime minister, the consensus was that there had been no dramatic shift. National was down a smidgen, Labour was up, NZ First was down a bit and the Greens were lucky to survive. Peters was the kingmaker, but there hadn't been a wholesale rejection of the status quo. This remains the best description of the 2017 election result. But since Peters decided on Labour, analytical discipline has started to break down. Somehow, the preference of one man is now seen as a national mood for transformative change. In a way, it is easy to see how this has happened. In 2015, a youthful and congenial Justin Trudeau stormed in to power in Canada. His Liberals dominated the popular vote in a landslide …show more content…

In fact, this kind of result could have happened in the previous three elections. In 2008, for example, when National swept to power, NZ First won just over 4 per cent. Not reaching the 5-per cent threshold, Peters and chums crashed out of Parliament. Votes for NZ First were disregarded and had no influence on the makeup of Parliament. But, had the party won another 30,000 votes that year, things may have been different. Together, National and ACT would have won only 59 out of 122 seats. The Clark Government already had confidence and supply from United Future, NZ First and the Greens. Had it been able to add the Māori Party to its existing alliance, it could have clung to power. In 2011, we saw the formation of the so-called Conservative Party. It received almost 60,000 votes that year, running on a similar platform to NZ First. If half of those votes went to NZ First instead, Labour may have been able to pull off the formation of a Government. Then, in the 2014 election, the Conservative Party received more than 95,000 votes. Had half of those gone to NZ First, a Labour-led Government was possible then too. Had Hone Harawira also hung on in Te Tai Tokerau, a change in Government would have been even more likely. Every election under MMP will be close. While the system is meant to be proportional, the party vote and electoral seat thresholds introduce quirks into the system. There is an element of randomness in the

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