The Collapse Of The Soviet Union

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SCENARIO THREE: The Break Up The third scenario is probably the most traumatic. It is a chaotic collapse of the Eurozone, starting in Greece but spreading to Spain and Italy. The core countries will be more disconnected from the current crisis and will not feel responsibility for the consequences of unsuitable decisions made in the European Commission. Countries suffering the crisis will come to the conclusion that the core countries have achieved competitiveness and success at the expenses of other European countries. The danger of this scenario is that the breakup can be violent, similar to the disintegration of Yugoslavia where the core countries will try to hold the peripheral ones. There is also the possibility that politicians at the core countries may considerate a peaceful dissolution due to the cost of carrying the periphery countries is greater than maintaining the Union and will decide in the end that the dissolution will be the best option (similar to the disintegration of the Soviet Union). In the case the disintegration of the Union will be peacefully, the core and northern counties of the European Union will form a new “selected club” of countries with tight economic measures and a very restricted right of admission. In this scenario, growing inequalities and hostility between the north and the south will increase and some countries will leave the Eurozone to return to their former currencies. Bailouts will no longer be supported by the European Central Bank.

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