The Components Of Aggregate Expenditure And Assess Their Influence On The Performance Of The Australian Economy

This report will show an overview of the current state of the Australian economy and its management by the Federal government through examining economic indicators such as economic growth (GDP), unemployment, inflation and trade.

The figure obviously had not return to pre-crisis level. Moreover, recent commodity prices had fallen significantly which will affect Australia’s short and long term economy.

Australia’s net foreign debt to GDP ratio has grown dramatically during the period of globalisation. After rapid growth in the 1980s’ foreign debt stabilised at roughly 35% of GDP, this was party due to a higher level in asset sales being used to fund the CAD instead of increased debt. Debt began to increase again the late 1990’s, this was due to a decrease in the value of the Australian dollar, because most of our debt had been borrowed in foreign currency’s, the depreciation increased the Australian dollar value of our foreign debt. The slower rate of growth in debt and overall liabilities in the past few years reflect the lower level of current account deficits. The growth in net foreign debt has eased slightly since the global financial crisis of 2008-09 but is now around 50% of GDP.

The net primary income account, in the balance of payments, plays an ongoing part in the cause of Australia’s current account deficit (CAD). This occurs mainly due to the fact that the net primary account is comprised of payments of interest and dividends on Australia’s net foreign debt and equity. In 2011-2012, it was equal to a deficit of 3.1% of GDP; however it is expected to increase in the future due to large returns to overseas investors in Australia’s mining industry.

Australia has also experienced a rising terms of trade to 130.0 in late 2011 due to the commodities boom as a result of the industrialization of the BRICs, whereby Australia has experienced high export and national income, but has resulted in less competitiveness in other sectors due to the high AUD, causing the ‘Dutch disease’ whereby non-commodity sectors lose competitiveness. Similarly is can be seen in its narrow export base whereby in 2012-13 one third of export revenue came from coal and iron ore ($96 billion from 300 billion), furthermore 57% of Australian export revenue is made up of mineral and energy exports, whereby Australian growth has been largely fuelled by commodity exports and mining boom.

The impact of globalisation has also changed the structure of Australia 's trade. There has been considerable growth in manufacturing and service industries with limited growth in the rural sector (Table 2). This reflects a combination of changes in world demand and domestic structural reforms.

The world price of Australia’s mining exports has more than tripled over the past decade, while investment spending by the mining sector increased from 2 per cent of GDP to 8 per cent. This ‘mining boom’ represents one of the largest shocks to hit the Australian economy in generations. This paper attempts to quantify some of its effects, using top-down analysis of the Australian economy. It will show the mining boom has substantially increased Australian living standards. By 2016, we estimate that it had raised real per capita household disposable income by 13 per cent, raised real wages by 6 per cent and lowered the unemployment rate by about 1¼ percentage points. There have also been costs. The boom has led to a large appreciation of the Australian dollar that has weighed on other industries exposed to trade, such as manufacturing and agriculture.

The Australian PMI has been mostly below 50 with an average of 47.98 in past 12 months and an average of 47.94 this year, which suggests a likely contraction in manufacturing. Fluctuation is expected due to its volatile nature but a large percentage change is likely to drive the economy. A 14.03% growth in July is expected to lead to an increase in the coming month but contraction may continue in 2015-2016. From these PMI figures, Australia’s economy might not be performing at its best. The industry might suffer

This growth rate was primarily driven by high consumer spending supported by both government spending and rising employment levels. According to a report by the Australian Bureau of statistics, consumer spending contributed to two thirds of GDP growth in the fourth quarter. This came despite a fall in income levels as Australian residents used their savings for spending purposes, and was also helped by a booming real estate sector which was the largest contributor to the GDP growth in the fourth quarter. (Mehta, 2016). As can be seen in Fig.4 below, consumer spending in australia increased to 231332 million in the last qtr of 2015 from 229576 million in the third qtr of 2015.

First we must look and account for the causes for the recent trends in balance of payments. This is very important as it reflects key features of the structure of the economy and highlights the imbalances in the relationship between Australia and the economy. In particular, we must inspect the current account deficit (CAD), which is when the debits are greater than the credits recorded as a percentage of GDP and is an accurate indicator of the economy’s current position.

The benchmark investment rate in Australia was last recorded at 2.25%. Investment Rate in Australia found the middle value of 5.13 percent from 1990 until 2015, arriving at an unequaled high of 17.50 percent in January of 1990. Inflation Rate in Australia averaged 5.21 percent from 1951 until 2014. Customer costs in Australia rose 1.7% during the time to the December quarter 2014, the slowest yearly pace in more than two years as petrol costs dove. Australian yearly inflation rate abated to 2.3% in the second from last quarter of 2014 from 3.0 % in the past period, determined by a fall in cost of electricity, after the removal of tax duty on carbon discharge beginning early July. An alternate key variable that impacts the business is the unemployment rate. While the unemployment is staying high it is normal that RBA will keep the investment rates and trade rates low. Unemployment Rate in Australia diminished to 6.30% in February of 2015 from 6.40% in January of 2015. Unemployment Rate in Australia found to be in between 6.91% from 1978 until

Booms, busts, recessions, and growth; all of the preceding terms are characteristics of a typical market economy. There are times when an economy can flourish spectacularly and there are times when it can fail miserably. Consequently, it is the responsibility of a nation’s central bank to manage these fluctuations through conducting effective monetary policy. The following paper will assume the perspective of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and critically analyze the past, present, and future of the Australian economy while considering specific sectors.

There are three major economic factors that have combined contribution to FMG’s growth over the past 5 years, including the strong AUD , the amazing export feature due to the Chinese boom which drives up the commodity price and the interest rate decision by RBA. Australia dollar has appeared strong for the past 5 years and maintained at $6-$6.8 level for AUD/CNY at most time. It promised a high level of foreign income for Australia exporter. In 2009, China demanded almost 60% of the world’s iron ore to produce 47% of world’s steel production. It contributes the most to the price rocket from $31.78 to $180.6 US cents/mts in 5 years time. In addition, Australia borrowing cost remains high over the past few years which may alter the finance decisions of FMG.

Since 2012, Australia has maintained a mostly negative trade balance, perhaps amid uncertainty of its currency against the US dollar, but more likely is its economic growth is causing it to import more and more petroleum products which it’s exports of its own natural resources is not able to match.

In March 2015, Greg Jericho published an article called Weak, weak growth and six things about the state of Australia’s economy that outlined how in the past 6 out of 10 quarters the Australian