[pic] THE DETERMINANTS OF CONSUMER PRICE INDEX IN INDONESIA Instructor DR. Moussa Larbani Prepared By Ali Faris (G0912449) Imala Hussain (G0822498) Ma Yue (G0918271) Mia Fathia (G0827756) Nurma Saleah (G0912298) Suthinee Suayngam (G0916798) Ulfah Hidayatun (G0815892) ECON 6030 ADVANCE QUANTITATIVE METHOD Term Paper Kulliyah of Economics and Management Sciences Department of Business Administration 2009/2010 Abstract The most well known and widely quoted economic indicator is the CPI (Consumer Price Index). It represents an estimation of the …show more content…
Most people associate the concept of CPI with inflation. An increase in the value of the CPI means that an increase in inflation has been observed. When inflation increases the purchasing power of money is lost and people will change their spending habits as they meet their purchasing thresholds and producers will suffer and be forced to cut output. This can be readily tied to higher unemployment rates. The whole economy falls into a recession. The objective of this paper is to find a linear regression model that will accurately estimate the consumer pricing index of Indonesia by using the following independent variables, 1) money supply, 2) Gross domestic product, 3) interest rates and 4) stock prices. In economics, money supply is the total amount of money available in an economy at a particular point in time. There are several ways to define "money", but standard measures usually include currency in circulation and demand deposits. The gross domestic product (GDP) or gross domestic income (GDI) is a basic measure of a country 's economic performance and is the market value of all final goods and services made within the borders of a country in a year. It is a fundamental measurement of production and is very often positively correlated with the standard of living. An interest rate is the price a borrower pays for the use of money they do not own, for instance a small company might borrow from a bank to
There are several factors that affect our economy, gross domestic product (GDP), real GDP, nominal GDP, unemployment rate, inflation rate, and interest rates. All of these factors have influences over how we purchase groceries, weather there will be massive layoffs of employees, and decrease in taxes.
Unemployment rate, one of the biggest macroeconomic indicators. Unemployment rate controls the rate of the economy, or GDP. If unemployment rate drops from 9.1% to under 5%, the entire economy would benefit. The job market would increase, total products produced would increase, and the overall standard of living would also increase. Employment is a key economic factor that affects all things economic.
Gross Domestic Product, also known as GDP, is defined as the dollar value of all final goods and service produced within the border of a country during a specific period of time, typically in one year. GDP measures the value for the whole country, and it also changes quickly. We can take a look at the trends of US GDP in the website of the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Consumer Price Index, is a measure of the overall cost of goods and services bought by a typical consumer. A 10% increase in chicken will have a greater affect on the CPI because more people typically by chicken than those who buy caviar.
Inflation is an increase in the average overall price for goods or services while deflation is the decrease of average overall price for goods and services. Inflation always produces the effect of reducing the value of money and reduces the value of future monetary obligations. Reducing the value of money means a consumer has less money to buy services or goods. Reducing the value of future monetary obligations means investing or lending becomes more restricted as the value of return will be less than the amount paid back. Economist Arthur Okun analyzed the relationship between Unemployment and the GDP statistical. Okun’s law simply states that with rising unemployment there is a relationship of slow growth. Unemployment is a person looking for work and unable to find work. Deflation is the value of any amount of money rises. Deflation makes borrowers less likely to borrow because the value of the money they have to pay back will raise.
The one way one can comprehend the United States economy is through looking at its GDP (Gross Domestic Product). Gross Domestic Product is the statistic employed to measure the aggregate output of the nation (Mankiw, 2011). More so, GDP is described as the total monetary value of finished services and goods that are produced in the country at a specific period in time. GDP is considered one of the principal pointers that gauge the health of a nation's economy and it is calculated in inflation-adjusted terms or in real terms (King, Gans & Mankiw, 2011). GDP entails all of public and private consumption, investments, government outlays, exports minus importers of a country. It is therefore calculated through the following formula GDP=C (consumption)+G (Government spending)+I (Investment)+NX(Exports-Imports) (Mankiw, 2011).
In economics, with the inflation is a rise in the actual general level of prices of goods and services in an economy from over a period of time. When the general price level rise, such as each of the units currency buys fewer goods and services. Consequently, inflation reflects a reduction in the purchasing power4 per unit of money. This therefore means that with the loss of real value in the medium of exchange and unit of account within the given and actual economy. With a chief measure for example and the price of inflation is within the given inflation rate, the annualised percentage change within a general price index over time in which is normally the consumer price index.
Inflation hinders economic growth. For example, when inflation is high, goods and services cost more, and people tend to spend less. High inflation also causes less long-term planning associated with spending money, such as home building and investing. Businesses are affected in the same manner. When inflation goes up, and down inconsistently, people become weary of spending, exacerbating their fears that they won’t be able to pay their bills. Long-term interests also go up, due to high inflation. The cost added to long-term interest rates compensates for the risk associated with inflation. Additional costs on interest rates make people less willing to take on a loan. When, the demand for goods and services is low, then the supply of goods up, the production of those goods has to decrease, giving rise to
GDP is not only an important indicator to a country's economy growth but also to social and politic perspectives. GDP reflects unemployment rate, inflation and interest rate. The Federal Reserve has continuously raised the interest rate at .25 point for more than 10 successive times in other to attract more and more investment. Government spending, as a part of GDP, has also increased from year to year. As a year passes, economists, firms and governments look at GDP as an indicator for the following year's economic policy in order to keep the economy go in a right track. GDP is also an indicator of recession, when an economy experiences two successive declines in GDP, the economy is going through recession.
Also, the consumer price index measurements can be used to forecast the future economic prices. Hence, the company will use the suitable environment to achieve its goal of maximizing profits and also minimizing the costs.
Gross Domestic Product is one of the most significant economic indicators in the economy. Why? The state of an economy is anything but static. It is an ever-changing, whirlwind phenomenon with long inputted variables within a country 's economic landscape that could simply change with a single stroke of the pen. Some of these variables, when inserted into their respective economic equation, lead to indicators to can help predict the state of the economy and where it could be headed. None of these are any more important than the economic indicator of Gross Domestic Product. Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, is defined as “the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country 's borders in a specific time period” (Gross Domestic Product –
GDP is the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. GDP is basically the measure of a nation's total income and is an important tool in explaining a single society's economic well-being (Mankiw, 2009).
Money supply basically means “money stocked” it is the total amount of monetary assets available in an economy at a specific time. There are several ways to define "money," but standard measures usually include currency in
Real gross domestic product (GDP) is an inflation-adjusted measure that reflects the value of all goods and services produced by an economy in a given year (Investopedia.com, 2004). Inflation is the fluctuation of the costs for goods/services and this has a negative impact of increasing unemployment; individuals who are searching for work and are unable to find employment (“Introduction to economics,” 2012).
Economists use the retail sales data in their models to make predictions on a wide variety of economic issues. Again, because retails sales accounts for such a large proportion of GDP, it is used along with other factors as a way to estimate the direction of the quarterly and annual GDP numbers. Used in conjunction with data such as the consumer price index, it is also very relevant for inflation forecasts as the data can offer glimpses into the affects of rising or falling prices. This in turn is closely tied to predictions for the direction of future interest rates as potential additional government action. Finally the retail sales data can be used to estimate