The Effect Of Temperature Increases Due On Anthropogenic Warming Change The Probability Of Precipitation Deficits That Cause Severe Drought Conditions? Essay
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Abstract The purpose of this article by Diffenbaugh et.al. is to determine how temperature increases due to anthropogenic warming change the probability of precipitation deficits that cause severe drought conditions, and determine what the conditions will look like in the future. They used historical precipitation and temperature data with Palmer Drought Metrics and global climate models to attempt to answer this question. It was found that in the past twenty years, the frequency of drought years has doubled, without any significant change in the trends of precipitation variability. This was attributed to significant increases in positive temperature anomalies causing an increased frequency of precipitation deficits leading to more occurrences of drought years. Global climate modeling suggested that by 2030, the region will transition to a regime where there is a 100% risk that all future dry years will coincide with warmer conditions, increasing the risk of extended drought conditions. This is not the first time this region has experienced prolonged drought conditions. However, it is the first time the drought has been this severe. Since 1977, the per capita water usage has decreased such that in 2013 the water demand is similar to that of 1977, meaning that it will be very difficult to come up with new short-term water conservation ideas.
Introduction This is a review of the article “Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California” by Diffenbaugh