The Effects Of Oil Prices On Economic Growth

The consensus from the 1970s and 1980s was that there was an inverse relationship between oil prices and real economic activities. This belief later changed when the oil price crash of the mid-1980s failed to boost economic growth. Researchers then believed that increasing oil prices negatively affect the economy whereas falling oil prices have very little impact and by the 1990s this impact was assumed to be minimal (DePratto, de Resende and Maier 2009). More recently, researchers have found that increases in the oil prices adversely affect the economy whereas the impact of a decline in oil prices on GDP growth is only negligible (Jimenez-Rodriguez and Sanchez

The United States consumes more than 25% of the world’s petroleum products which is a large percentage, considering only 3% of the world’s oil reserves are produced by the United States. Given the demand for petroleum products such as gasoline, understanding why Crude oil prices have skyrocketed in recent years, is not hard. According to the article “Ending America’s Oil Addiction,” the surge in crude oil prices can be reduced in large part to the simple concepts of supply and demand. (Cooper, 2008)

In a revealing article by George Perry (2001) the author discusses the economic impact that a disruption in the oil supplies would have on world oil prices. He states “Currently 28 percent of the world's crude oil comes from the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) consisting of Arab Muslim nations, some of which are not part of the OPEC cartel. The governing regimes in all these countries are at some risk [due to the war on terrorism].” He goes on to state that in a worst case scenario the economic consequences of oil supply disruption would be “oil prices rise to $161 per barrel driving gasoline price to $4.84 per gallon. The increase in the nation's bill for products of crude oil rises by about 10 percent of GDP, which adds perhaps 15 percent to the inflation rate in the first year. And the recession is the steepest and deepest of the postwar period, with GDP declining nearly 5 percent the first year.”

Discuss how rising oil prices might affect the macroeconomic performance of an economy. (25 marks)

For example, the Intercontinental Exchange while oil prices have not been decided on by oil producers such as Niami refinery fires, Nigerian Pirates and global oil markets. The laws of demand and supply are also predicted by the increase and decrease in the prices of oil. Oil prices are driven by the increase in demand for oil which has limited or completely destroyed the gains for suppliers and producers. While the U.S still consumes more oil than any other country, it is evident from the increase in oil demand that developing countries such as China, India and Japan are driving oil prices higher by their continous growth in oil demand (Anderson, 1).

Oil prices hike or drop is normally a major concern to researchers, industries as well as the government. Oil majorly affects the operations of all sectors of economy in any nation. From analysis and monitoring of oil prices, it has been observed that oil prices went down from the second half of 2014. This was unexpected because oil prices had stabilized for about four years with each barrel costing 105 US Dollars (Miller 11). According to a research and simulation done by researchers in 2014, there was a prediction speculating oil prices would remain low in 2015 and marginally rise in 2016. However, in 2015 there has been a very sharp decline of oil prices. It is out of this concern that this papers the aims at addressing the following questions.

Graph 1 represents the major companies and nations which product crude oil. It also represents how the bent crude oil price has fluctuated from 2004 until 2014. From 2004-2008 it is evident that there is a steady rise in oil prices, from $35-$150 per barrel. Towards the end of 2008 it is evident that there is a significant drop in oil prices, from $150- $32 per barrel. This is due to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) where the stock market collapsed on October 28, 1928, through this came the rapid decrease in oil prices. From 2009-2011 there is a steady increase in oil prices which was caused by the stock market repairing itself from impact of the GFC. In 2013 we are able to see declining oil

A group of researchers show that oil price fluctuation have significant impact on the economic activity. The significant are expected different from oil importing and exporting countries. (Soytas, Sari, Hammoudeh, & Hacihasanoglu, 2009). However, those countries exporting oil an increase in the oil price considered good news to them. When the price of oil increase the exporting, countries gain more money, but for importing countries when the oil price decreases, it’s going to have an impact on their real economy especial when the country relies on the oil as one of their main source of income. The monetary transmission mechanism which has the control on the interest rate which the oil price have has an impact on

With the current spike in oil prices, many American consumers have asked, 'what is going on?' In order to fully understand the current situation and how it is affecting the economy one must look at a variety of factors including: the history of oil crisis in the United States, causes of the current situation, and possible outcomes for the future. It is only after meticulous research in these topics that one is prepared to answer the question, 'what is the best possible solution to the oil crisis?'

The oil-rich Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, located on the northern coast of South America, was for many decades considered among the wealthiest nations in the entire continent. While having the largest proven oil reserves in the world has often proved a tremendous boon for Venezuela, the very black gold that has been the cause of its success has also proven to repeatedly be its kryptonite. Over half of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product stems from petroleum exports – which equates to approximately 95% of total exports. It is really not too hard to imagine what drastic consequences shifts in global oil prices could have on the economy.

Dependence on oil is a threat to international economics. The Middle East holds much of earth’s supply—twenty percent of the world’s oil comes from the Persian Gulf. The U.S. itself imports more than two million barrels per day of Persian Gulf petroleum and crude oil (J. Miller). That’s almost twelve percent of America’s oil use. This region of the world is tumultuous, with wars and uprisings ongoing; relying so heavily on trade from this area places the international economy at risk. Nuclear weapons are available, and due to the tension between Israel and the surrounding Arab nations, their use is plausible. Both ISIS and Al Qaida operate there, religious fundamentalism and corruption are rampant, and the Syrian civil war hasn’t showed

Since the early 2000s, the sharp increase in oil price volatility has coincided with a more apparent link between exchange rates and other assets. The 2008 Financial Crisis demonstrated how interwoven the global economy has become. This does not only apply to equity markets. As Figure 0 shows above, the crash coincided with a period of high volatility in oil price as well.

Shocks to the demand and supply of oil, caused by politics, business changes and cycles, and technological advances, cause oil price volatility across world economies. These factors explain the fluctuations that the global oil industry has faced since early 1990s (Aasim, 2015: 5). The economic boom between 2003 and 2008 caused an increase in oil prices, especially in oil-consuming economies such as India and China. On the contrary, petrol exporting nations could not match the high demands for oil. Oil prices increased during the 2008 financial crisis, picking up again in mid-2009 after the developing economies showed signs of economic growth. Oil supplies would later be disrupted by the Arab Spring uprisings in 2010 after which oil prices rose up to between $90$ and $120 per barrel between 2010 and 2014 (Baumeister & Kilian, 2016: 54). As supply exceeded the demand, oil prices would drop by 70% between June 2014 and January 2016. Thus report discusses the effects of oil prices on the aggregate demand and aggregate supply of a petrol importing nations.

This paper explorers a few of the possibilities of the reasons behind the increase and/or decrease in the price of oil, and the effects these prices have on the economy. It introduces some key players in the oil business itself and helps to break down the logic of how oil is the singular contributor of revenue to many economies worldwide. This research examines, through many resources, the different roles that the U.S. and foreign governments play in determining the price of oil, whether from an import or export standpoint. Also, many articles show how the stock market

Since the past few decades, owning a car has become a necessity in order to commute from one place to another. However, cars do not work automatically, they require fuel. Since the past decade, the petroleum industry has become one of the leading industries impacting the nation’s economy. Oil has become an essential commodity as it is utilized in transportation vehicles, serves as a raw material for manufacturing plastics, and is utilized in homes for cooking. America’s economy is greatly dependent on petroleum as it is the “black gold” of the nation. The considerable significance of oil has led to the drilling of it, which is not only limited to land, but also the oceans. Offshore drilling is a method in which petroleum is extracted from underneath the seabed. It is one of the significant technological advancements in the past few decades. However, the ones who are involved in the process of offshore oil production are humans, and humans tend to make mistakes. In 1969, due to a human error, an oil spill occurred and natural gas, oil, and mud shot up the well and oozed into the ocean (“Offshore Drilling”). The oil spilled led to an environmental disaster which killed thousands of marine animals and distorted the environment. In order to prevent the same error, the government passed a moratorium in 1981, banning more than 85 percent of the country’s oil drilling sites (“Offshore Drilling”). The moratorium restricted the United States to mass-produce its natural resource.