Part A. The Exchange Rate and the Balance of Payments
1. Plot the dollar exchange rate since 1995. Use an appropriate benchmark to determine if the exchange rate has depreciated or appreciated since 1995. Explain why you chose such benchmark. Has the dollar depreciated or appreciated (break it up into time periods to answer this)? In Forex Trading these four major currency pairs are the most popular ones.
1. Euro/USD –The Euro and the US dollar
2. USD/JPY - The US dollar and the Japanese Yen
3. GBP/USD- The British Pound and the US dollar
4. USD/CHF – The US dollar and the Swiss Franc.
We are using the third currency pair i.e. GBP/USD for the conduct of the study and the appreciation / Depreciation of these currencies over the
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GBP/USD: Appreciation/Depreciation over the years:
The Appreciation / Depreciation of US dollar against Britain Pound over the years from 1995 – 2014 yearly wise is presented here, the maximum appreciation of Dollar against Pound is seen during the year 2001 i.e. GBP/USD rate was 1.4406, the dollar appreciated 6.24 % against Pound and the dollar depreciated to the lowest value during the year 2007 i.e. GBP/USD rate was 2.0013 and the dollar depreciated by 23.50% against pound.
The Appreciation / Depreciation of US dollar against Britain Pound over the years from 1995 – 2014 is depicted below by the following Graphs:
The above Graphs shows the Year on Year appreciation / Depreciation of US dollar over British Pound, and if we divide the entire Year on Year data into four different time Periods i.e. 1995 -2000, 2001-2005, 2006-2010, 2010-2014 we can easily analyze the Exchange Rate fluctuation of Dollar against Pound over a period of 5 years of time by considering the closing Exchange rates of the respective currencies during the starting and the ending of the 5 year time horizon.
From the year 1995-2000 the dollar has appreciated by 4.26% and the dollar has appreciated to a larger extent of about 20.76% during the period 2001-2005. From the year 2006-2010 dollar has witnessed an appreciation against Pound by 19.12%. By comparing it with the previous period the dollar has depreciated by 2.61% and from the
dollar was close to an eight year shortage against the real, having lost more than 33% of its value during 2009 alone. During the past 12 month era, the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar (USD) has diverse from a low of BRL R $1.5310 to in height of BRL $1.7790. During 2010, the United States dollar typically kept an everyday exchange rate between (BRL) R$1.70 and (BRL) R$1.80, occasionally reducing below the (BRL) R$1.70 level.
Exchange rates fluctuate in response to a multitude of factors. Upswings and downswings in the exchange rate can have both positive and negative consequential effects. Depreciation drops the value of the dollar and permits owners of foreign currencies to purchase a greater amount of Australian goods. Hence, depreciation makes Australian exports cheaper and accordingly
The beneficial effects on the economy may take as much as two years to be fully felt. I Further, the UK should be careful not to rely on a weak currency in order to support its competitiveness. An Exchange rates tend to fluctuate in value over time and the strongest economies are usually those with high productivity and low production costs, or those which produce highly innovative products. The long term performance of the UK economy could be adversely affected if a weakening of the currency was allowed to distract from these more fundamental determinants of economic performance. An Overall, however, in the current context, a weakening of Sterling is likely to be seen as beneficial for the UK economy, helping to support it through a difficult time and aiding a rebalancing of the economy towards the export sector. Despite this, it should be remembered that in other contexts, for example when controlling inflation is a more pressing problem, a fall in the exchange rate could be damaging.
* The recent devaluation of Pound Sterling (£1) against the US Dollar ($1.5) means, Pret spend more money trading globally, compared to when the Pound Sterling (£1) much stronger than the US Dollar ($2). This will affect their annual profits or is likely to lead to unethical trading as they look for the cheapest sources to get their raw materials.
The currency of India has been falling much recently against the dollar, as the risk adverse global investors start getting worried about the deficits, as efforts are being made by the central bank to stem the slide of the currency. According to Fact Set data, the rupee hit 54.44 against the dollar, in December, 2011. According to the analyst, it is expected that the rupee may continue to weaken further, as Eurozone jitters dovetail with the raising worries on the slow growth rate, fiscal deficits and the current account.
8. There would have been strong forces to depreciate the currency in the late nineteenth century because
In the similar time period Japanese Yen has been in the third position with a turnover position of 20.8% in the year 2005. The overall financial market currency structure has seen a decline in the turnover position of the US Dollar to 85% from a strong position of 88%. Similarly a decline has been in the position of the Japanese Yen to 17.2% from an acceptable turnover position of 20.8%. While considering the trend of these two currencies during the period starting from 2007 and ending at 2010, it is to be noted that minute changes were seen in the two different currencies with regards to their share in foreign currency market. The US Dollar witnessed a continued fall to 84.9% from its previous 85.6% however, the Japanese Yen saw a rise from its previous position of 17.2% to an increase of1.8% that is 19%. During the same time period the US dollar and Japanese Yen were the second most traded paired currencies and was traded at around 14% of the overall foreign currency market second to the US Dollar and Euro pair. Conclusion The foreign exchange market has seen considerable changes owing to the global financial crisis. It is to be seen how different factors like economy and global politics further impact strong currencies like the US Dollar and other competing currencies such as the Japanese Yen.
When the UK economy is doing well, its pound sterling is strong. However, having a strong pound actually discourage visitors from overseas because when they exchange their money in pound they will be getting less money, so it make visiting UK expensive and it deter inbound visitor from visiting UK.
There are many reasons why the dollar would fluctuate. The strength and weakness of a dollar depends on a number of factors such as inflation and trade deficits. To save the economy from inflation, the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates causing the economy to slow and the value of the dollar to decrease. Trade deficits can also devalue the US dollar. Although the high trade deficit is causing the dollar to fluctuate, the deficit could be a way to make the dollar stronger. Because we are borrowing from other countries, with our interest rates being higher, they would want to buy the US dollar to invest in the interest rate market.
The financial crisis of 2008 has been described as the worst financial crisis the world has seen since the great depression, but there are now murmurings of the potential for an even greater financial crisis, a currency crisis, caused by the demise of the US Dollar. The Dollar has been the reserve currency of the world since it took over from the Pound at the end of world war two, but we examine if it is about to crash spectacularly?
The US dollar is used in the majority of the international transactions and therefore that happens to the American economy, will influence the international financial resources. Dollars bring big consequences both for the USA and for other countries. The economy of many countries depends on currency dollar. The increase in its course reduces the volume of the income in dollars for the country. And change of US dollar more considerably, than change of an exchange rate of the country. On the
Due to Brexit London Stock Exchange crashed and it saw trillions of pounds wiped off from UK’s share market. The share market became volatile. The investors of UK’s share market decided to move their funds to other European share market in Germany and Ireland and France. As a result pound lost its exchange value for the first time in last 15
I will be comparing exchange rates between two countries, these are the UK (£) and the USA ($) to see if the changes are enough to make any differences or whether just negligible. I will select data from the year 1980 to 2015 in yearly intervals. Comparing each year with the previous year. These will be compared using Excel and Minitab and displayed as a simple linear regression model.
Because there is upward pressure on the pound some investors may anticipate an appreciation. This may discourage British investors from attempting to capitalize on US higher interest rates. If the uncertainty about future exchange rates discourages British capital flows to US, there would be no reason to anticipate the pound to depreciate.
The graph below plots the same data in pounds; most years, only deposits and treasury bills appear noticeable when compared to the British national securities.