The Financial Momentum Effect On Bist30 Index Stocks

Capital markets provide a function which facilitates the buying and selling of long-term financial securities to increase liquidity and their value, Watson & Head (2013). Hence, the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) explains the relationship that exists with the prices of the capital market securities, where no individual can beat the market by regularly buying securities at a lower price than it should be. This means that in order to be an efficient market prices of securities will have to fairly and fully reflect all available information, Fama (1970). Consequently, Watson & Head (2013) believe that market efficiency refers to the speed and quality of how share price adjusts to new information. Nevertheless, the testing of the efficient markets has led to the recognition of three different forms of efficiency in which explains how information available is used within the market. In this essay, the EMH will be analysed; testing of EMH will show that the model does provide strong evidence to explain share behaviour but also anomalies will be discussed that refutes the EMH. Therefore, a judgment will be made to see which structure explains the efficient market and whether there are some implications with the EMH, as a whole.

Fama and French’s three factor model attempts to explain the variation of stock prices through a multifactor model that includes a size factor and BE/ME factor in addition to the beta risk factor. Fama-French model essentially extended the CAPM (which breaks up cause of variation of stock price into systematic risk which is non-diversifiable and idiosyncratic risk which is diversifiable) by introducing these two additional factors. Fama and French find that stocks with high beta didn’t have consistently higher returns than stocks with low beta and this indicates that beta was not a useful measure under their model. Their model is based on research findings that sensitivity of movements of the size and BE/ME factor constituted risk, and

The authors jointly examine momentum and value in eight different markets and asset classes. Asness, Moskowitz and Pederson found two main phenomena associated with returns across 8 various markets and asset classes in their research. These findings challenge previous, well-established theories, like the existence of significant premia in value and momentum return strategies across asset classes and global markets. This innovative research includes some new asset classes not previously used, such as government bonds, currencies, and commodities. The authors look to prove the

Investing behavior should be driven by information, analysis, and self-discipline, not by emotion or ‘hunch.’

In February 1995, Adam Bain, investment advisor in the London, Ontario branch of RBC Dominion Securities Inc. (RBC DS), was considering whether or not to implement a price momentum strategy for his clients. Trend and Cycle, DS’s technical research department, had recently circulated a copy of a study which described a simple price momentum model and referred to its “startling results” based on back testing the strategy over a 15 year period. The Trend and Cycle group had long promoted the importance of price momentum and relative strength to potential clients. Bain needs to determine whether the proposed model was “too good to be true” or, if it did not look promising, how he would go about

In order to study how stock prices react to these events, approximate three years of continuous daily stock price are chose, beginning at 17th March 2008 and ending more than three months after the final event at 22nd April 2011. In addition, SHANGHAI Stock Exchange Index (SSE) is adopted as a proxy of the market portfolio.

In this literate review the most important papers about explaining stock returns from 1952, when Markowitz came up with Modern Portfolio Theory, till around 2011 will be discussed. As stated in Chapter 2, Jack Treynor was one of the first economists that started to work on the CAPM model. When he developed the CAPM in 1961, there was no way yet to fully test it. Because there were no samples large enough or of sufficient quality, the real testing of the CAPM started in 1970. In 1973, the world was shown the famous Black and Scholes options pricing model. One of the first studies that gave a different answer than the CAPM was the research by Basu (1977). While he agrees with the Efficient Market Hypothesis, Basu reaches another

The premise of an efficient market is that stock prices adjust accordingly as information is received. The speed and accuracy of the pricing changes are a reflection of the strength of the market efficiency, where in theory a perfectly efficient market will re-adjust prices immediately and precisely with new information. The efficient market hypothesis aligns with beliefs about whether technical and fundamental analyses are useful in making investment decisions or whether a passive approach is appropriate. In a perfectly efficient market, these types of analyses are not able to predict stock price trends (based on market inefficiencies or price abnormalities) which could assist in portfolio positioning or investment management. However, some investors belive that the market pricing is not precise and that there are timing windows and pricing trends that can be identified through analysis of past performance and finding price abnormalities where all information is not correctly reflected in the stock price (Hirt, Block and Basu, 2006).

S. Basu (1997) tested for the information content of price-earnings multiple. He tested to see whether low P/E stocks outperform stocks with high P/E ratios. If historical P/E ratios provided useful information for obtaining higher stock returns then it would be refutation of semi strong form of efficient market hypothesis. His results indicated that low P/E portfolios provided superior returns relative to the market and high P/E provided inferior returns relative to the market. The results reported in this paper indicate that P/E ratio information was not fully

To justify whether it works, we first ran a regression on the Three-Factor Fama French Model (Market Excess Return, SMB and HML) from Jan 1972 to Dec 2012 respectively for the High-, 5-, Low-, and High-Minus-Low Portfolio. Then, we added momentum into the model to create a four-factor model (Momentum, Market Excess Return, SMB and HML) for the same period on a monthly basis. (See Exhibit 2).

In order to analyze the momentum effect of different specifications, stocks were divided into ‘winner’ stocks and ‘loser’ stocks according to their rankings.

Efficient Market Hypothesis has been controversial issues among researcher for decades. Until now, there is no united conclusion whether capital markets are efficiency or not. In 1960s, Fama (1970) believed that market is very efficient despite there are some trivial contradicted tests. Until recently, both empirical and theatrical efficient market hypothesis was being disputed by behavior finance economist. They have found that investor have psychological biases and found evidences that some stocks outperform other stocks. Moreover, there are evidences prove that market are not efficient for instance financial crisis, stock market bubble, and some investor can earn abnormal return which happening regularly in stock markets all over the world. Therefore, the purpose of this essay is to demonstrate that Efficient Market Hypothesis in stock (capital) markets does not exist in the real world by proofing four outstanding unrealistic conditions that make market efficient: information is widely available and cost-free, investor are rational, independent and unbiased, There is no liquidity problem in stock market, and finally stock prices has no pattern.

As indicated by the case study S&P 500 index was use as a measure of the total return for the stock market. Our standard deviation of the total return was used as a one measure of the risk of an individual stock. Also betas for individual stocks are determined by simple linear regression. The variables were: total return for the stock as the dependent variable and independent variable is the total return for the stock. Since the descriptive statistics were a lot, only the necessary data was selected (below table.)

The analysis of this paper will derive the validity of the Fama and French (FF) model and the efficiency of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). The comparison of the Fama and French Model and CAPM (Sharpe, 1964 & Lintner, 1965) uses real time data of stock market to practise its efficacy. The implication of the function in realistic conditions would justify the utility of the CAPM theory. The theory suggests that the expected return demanded by investors on a risky asset depends on the risk-free rate of interest, the expected return on the market portfolio, the variance of the return on the market portfolio, and

There is only one reason investors receive higher returns make that investment in high-risk stocks. Therefore, CAPM occupy dominant position in this modern financial environment (Fama and French, 1993).