The Invention Of Antibiotic Resistant Bacteria

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Alexander Fleming discovered penicillin, the first modern antibiotic, in 1928, and by 1940, scientists reported that bacteria had developed resistance. In February 27, 2017, The World Health Organization (WHO) published its first-ever list of antibiotic-resistant priority pathogens–a catalogue of 12 families of bacteria that pose the greatest threat to human health. In the category Priority 1, which WHO entitled as critical, is Carbapenem-Resistant Enterobacteriaceae, (CRE) (Lawe-Davies & Bennet, 2017). Antibiotic-resistant bacteria have changed their response to the use of existing antibiotics by changing their morphology, gene expression, and their mutation rate. Mutations enable the bacteria to produce enzymes that can
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Initially, to start the analysis, a Deterministic SIR model with 8 parameters, which uses Python code, was created. The python package, SciPy, was used to solve the differential equations we formulated over a period of 160 months. The parameters are the following: Mortality rate (g), recovery rate (rec), infection rate (b), susceptible population (S), Total population (N), recovered population (R), infected population (I), and dead population (D). Mortality rate per annum was defined to be 40-50% (“Vital Signs”, 2013), and we used 50% as a basis to model a worst-case scenario. In the code, we inputted 0.042 as the mortality rate, because our model has a time step of one month. The recovery rate was derived via the experimental numbers in a study by Patel, Huprikar, Factor, Jenkins, and Calfee (2008). Based on discrete medical censuses performed in Canada and the USA (“Biggest Threats”, 2016; "Canadian Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance System Report 2016", 2016), the infection rates are 0.2 and 0.26, respectively. For the general purposes of a model, the total population was set to be 1000; it must be noted that the unit for population is in thousands. S, I, and D were calculated via 3 separate differential equations, and are functions of a set of initial conditions (where I0 = 1, as an epidemic needs an infection to be instigated; R0 = 0,
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