Topic
With the development of global economy, there are various types of firms in the financial market, such as sole proprietorships, partnerships, corporations and limited liability companies. Even though the kind of firms is different, the ultimate goal that is to make profit is the same. So the return predictability plays an important role in making the investment decision of a corporation. The average return on common stocks is different because of the different firm characteristic, such as, dividends, stock prices and investment horizons. In this dissertation, I plan to research the relationship between the predictability of return and these variables. I plan to select the financial market in the United States and the United Kingdom
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Due to the expect return need a large number of historical figures to estimate the future outcome, I need to build a time series model to analysis these variables except for the mathematical derivation. So this dissertation through compare two theories which are Jonathan and Peter theory and Fama and French theory respectively to investigate the influence of different variables on the return predictability.
Theory
Both of these two theories are based on a basic rule that is the law of one price. The rule indicates that the price of a security is equal to the discounted value of the cash flows in the future when the investor purchases it.
Jonathan and Peter use a lot of mathematical inference to analysis the stock return from one year to many years, which is called the dividend-discount model. Besides, the dividend growth is also considered in which forms the constant dividend growth model finally. From these formulas, it can be easily observed that the expect return of a security is a function about the dividend yield ( ).
For one year:
For multiyear:
Constant dividend growth model: Although Jonathan and Peter have been carried out the relationship between the dividend yield and the expected return, there is a general lack of research in the impact of different horizons on the return. This problem is that the correlation between variance horizons and the anticipated return, which is solved by Fama and French through a regression test:
r(t,
If earnings' growth rates are often used as estimated of dividend growth rates. However, these forecasts
We obtain the growth rate g in the dividend growth model by calculating the geometric average for the last 10 years based on Common DIV/SH.
Percentage return is always an issue concerned by the investors, which measures the rewards can be earned on the investment. According to Christensen et al (2007, P336), percentage return consists of dividend yield and capital gain yield. Appendix 2 is extracted from Fin Analysis (Aspect Huntley, 2008) about the two yields for the past 7 years. It is scientific that the past performance of a corporation is being evaluated in order to predict its future performance. Graph 1 below also illustrates the movement of percentage return during the
What are the expected dividend yield and capital gains yield during the fourth year (from Year 3 to Year 4)?
The historic average returns from 1950 to 1996 and from 1929 to 1996 are given In Exhibit 3. We chose the latter time period as we considered it would give us a more reliable estimate of the risk-free rate by discounting both the Second World War and the Great Depression. It is necessary to evaluate the expected length of the project and utilize a risk free rate applicable for the same time period. Ameritrade is investing $100 million dollars in technology, which is considered a long-term investment, in order to become the largest brokerage firm. We consider their
The relationship between physicians and hospitals is very important. If the relationship between the two is negative then the organization cannot be successful and can fall to the ground. If the relationship is positive then the organization becomes successful. Physicians bring business to the hospitals with their clinical experience, with the patients they see, by admitting them or performing procedures, and decide on what type of supplies and services will be used (Harrison, 2016). Both, physicians and hospitals are competitive, but physicians have more responsibilities, so they have a bigger role to play. Not only do physician bring in patients, services, and supplies, but they
If changes in aggregate dividends are harder to predict, we might then expect that factors other than information about fundamentals, factors such as stock market booms and busts, would swamp out the effect of information about future dividends in determining price and make the simple efficient markets model a bad approximation for the aggregate stock market.
3. Apart from this, it assumes dividends are the only way investors receive money from the companies and any re-investment would be ignored.
There are many theoretical and empirical results describing the decisions companies make in this area. At the same time, however, there is no generally accepted model describing payout policy. Moreover, empirical findings are often contradictory or difficult to interpret in light of the theory. In their seminal paper, Miller and Modigliani (1961) showed that under certain assumptions dividends are irrelevant; all that matters is the firm’s investment opportunities. Miller and Modigliani considered the case of perfect capital markets (no transaction costs or tax differentials, no pricing power for any of the participants, no information asymmetries or costs), rational behaviour (more wealth being preferred to less, indifference between cash payments and share value increases) and perfect certainty (future investments and profits are given). In real life, however, people seem to care about dividends. Lintner.s (1956) classical study on dividend policy suggests that dividends represent the primary and active decision variable in most situations. Lintner suggests a model of partial adjustment to a given payout rate.
To determine if the low risk phenomenon exists in the selected research universe for the selected time period, we quintile the stocks (Quintile 1 = High Volatility, Quintile 5 = Low Volatility) by trailing 250 day price return annualized volatility at each month end for the entire selected time period. We then calculate the subsequent one month average return of each quintile. The one month average return of the volatility quintiles are presented in Exhibit 1.1. Quintile 5 (lowest volatility quintile) outperforms Quintile 1 (highest volatility quintile) by 63 bps per month on average. The Quintile 5 to Quintile 1 spread of 63 bps is statistically significant at the one percent level. Exhibit 1.2 shows the risk/reward payoff of the volatility quintiles.
As indicated by the case study S&P 500 index was use as a measure of the total return for the stock market. Our standard deviation of the total return was used as a one measure of the risk of an individual stock. Also betas for individual stocks are determined by simple linear regression. The variables were: total return for the stock as the dependent variable and independent variable is the total return for the stock. Since the descriptive statistics were a lot, only the necessary data was selected (below table.)
The return premium is associated with time series momentum and investors can evaluate future performance by analyzing past returns. It would facilitate the research development and discussion in financial economics field for time series momentum and validity of random walk hypothesis.
Investing money on securities and in the hope of earning high return never been easy. We won’t know the stock price will go up or down in the next day, even in matters of hours, minutes and seconds. SMN Investment helps their investors in managing their funds in order to get high return with minimum risk. This report is prepared to assist SMN investment and the client in order to manage $1 million funds ending 12 May 2016. To
The total revenue for the company had showed a trend of a slight increase throughout the years with a small dip in revenue in year 8. The company had increased their revenue from year 5 to year 11 by $165.00. The company shows improvement within their revenues throughout the simulation.
The second conclusion refers that some risky portfolios, to some extent, indicate a poor performance on a yearly basis. More specifically, there are still exist a phenomenon that it is inevitable that the return on a common stock will be negative although it performed better than bond in the long term according to the historical data. He also mention in the paper that the influence of asset on the portfolio could play an essential role in the making decisions on whether buying an asset or continuing to hold an asset. This result is embodied in the investment simulation system which is expressed by the yearly news.