The Long Run Causality Direction Between Financial Markets Development And Economic Growth

Economic growth is a common term used by economists to describe in increase in production in the long run. According to Robinson (1972) economic growth is defined as increases in aggregate product, either total or per capita, without reference to changes in the structure of the economy or in the social and cultural value systems. The basic tool of measuring the economic growth includes the real GDP. It provides some quantitative measures in terms of the production volume.

First of all, economic growth is one of the macroeconomic objectives that the government wants to achieve as a primary goal and it happens when there is a rise in the enlarged product of population and per capita consumption. According to Hoover (2011), economic growth is the total material output of good values and service values in the market, measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in a specific period of time. The growth of GDP is measured by excluding intermediate consumptions (production and resale), purely financial transactions and second-hand sales, which prevents double counting. To obtain an accurate value of economic growth, GDP needs to include the total output of expenditures and incomes.

When a nation experiences a long-term economic growth, people have a positive attitude. There are opportunities for new jobs, new technology, and open doors for more capital for investment. The result of growth increases demand, supply, aiding the production of goods and services boosting consumers’ confidence. Economists believe the right type of growth that is stable and controllable is the best.

Economic growth is the most important objective for economic management. Economic growth makes it possible to achieve goals and also causes problems. The following are its effects:

To start off I will begin by explaining how economic growth occurs. Economic growth occurs when there is an increase in output over time as well as the growth in the working population allows an economy to increase its output by having fewer people out of work and making an economy of full employment. For an economy to achieve this long-run growth it must have invested more in capital goods. This creates a better chance to produce more consumer goods in the long run. When doing this, living standards going down in the short run but

The Solow Model, also known as the neoclassical growth model or exogenous growth model is a neoclassical attempt created in the mid twentieth century, to explain long run economic growth by examining productivity, technological progress, capital accumulation and population growth. This model was contributed to by the works of Robert Solow, in his essay ‘A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth’ and by Trevor Swan in his work, ‘Economic Growth and Capital Accumulation’, both published in 1956. The model is perceived to be an extension of the 1946 Harrod-Domar model, which Solow (1956) describes as a ‘model of long-run growth which

Capital accumulation involves the rate at which investment in capital occurs, relative to its depreciation (Swan, 1956)- the rate at which an economy possesses productive human and physical resources available to create products and services. As GDP is a function of capital per effective worker, there is a clear relationship between capital and economic growth. (Appendix 1).

More recent incarnations of growth theory, following Romer (1986) and Lucas (1988), endogenize steady-state growth and technical progress, but their explanation for income differences is similar to that of the older theories. For instance, in the model of Romer (1990), a country may be more prosperous than another if it allocates more resources to innovation, but what determines this is essentially preferences and properties of the technology for creating ‘ideas’.1 Though this theoretical tradition is still vibrant in economics and has provided many insights about the mechanics of economic growth, it has for a long time seemed unable to provide a fundamental explanation for economic growth. As North and Thomas (1973, p. 2) put it: “the factors we have listed (innovation, economies of scale, education, capital accumulation etc.) are not causes of growth; they are growth” (italics in original). Factor accumulation and innovation are only proximate causes of growth. In North and Thomas’s view, the fundamental explanation of comparative growth is differences in institutions. What are institutions exactly? North (1990, p. 3) offers the following definition: “Institutions are the rules of the game in a society or, more formally, are the humanly devised constraints that shape human interaction.” He goes on to emphasize the key implications of institutions since, “In consequence they structure incentives in human exchange, whether political, social, or economic.” Of

c. Theory of economic growth: who present it? What are the main assumptions, strength, and weaknesses?

Studying economics is a process of cultivating my logical thinking and the skills to construct mathematical models simulating the real world. In the course of Macroeconomics, several models about economic growth were introduced. At first, I was confused by large amounts of economic variables in

However, I=sY implying that investment is financed by savings in the economy. The growth rate of K is therefore KK=sY/K-δ. K can also be written as K=kAL and using the rules of growth rates, we can write the following; KK= kk+A/A+L/L. Denoting the rate of growth of technology A by g and rate of growth of labour by n and using the fact that KK=sY/K-δ, we can derive the growth rate of capital per effective worker as kk=sy/k-(n+g+δ) or k=sfk-n+g+δk. This is the fundamental equation of the neoclassical growth model. The economy reaches a steady state when the rate of change of capital per effective per worker equals zero. In other words, sf(k)=(n+g+δ)k. That is investment per effective worker equals the break even investment. This can be graphed as follows:

This can be measured by the following formula; Per capita nominal GDP = Nominal GDP / Population, Per capita real GDP = Real GDP / Population. Seven factors determine economic growth. Natural resources such as land, mineral deposits, waterways; climatic conditions provide an essential foundation to economic growth. Combined with the other resources of capital, labor and enterprises, natural resources can be developed and organized to increase the productive capacity if the nation. Consequently the quality and size of the labor force is a major determinant of economic growth. Education and vocational training are essential the growth potential of a nation. The promotion of education and job training schemes increase the knowledge, skills and flexibility of the workforce that contributes to potentially higher levels of productivity and efficiency. Whether from natural increase or immigration population growth can cause a higher level of economic growth. An increasing population requires increased public spending on housing, education and other social needs while businesses expectations of

By identifying the finance-growth nexus in a co-integrating framework through tests of over-identifying restrictions, Luintel and Khan find bi-directional causality between financial development and economic growth in all the sample countries. Christopoulos and Tsionas (2004) also investigate the long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth in a multivariate VAR framework, though the examination is carried out via panel unit root tests and panel co-integration analysis in a panel-based vector error correction model (VECM). For all the developing countries in their sample, Christopoulos and Tsionas find unidirectional causality from financial depth to growth. These two reviewed studies are subject to limitations such that the capital formation is the only additional growth-determining variable incorporated in the framework. Moreover, stock-flow problem inherent in the indicator measurement of financial development is not finely dealt with. Additionally, focusing exclusively on one country instead of a number of nations is advantageous in that the econometric findings can be related to the prevailing institutional structure (Bell & Rousseau, 2001), as Chandavarkar (1992, p. 134) argues that the relationship between finance and growth bmerits

More specifically, countries that focus on physical and human capital accumulation and improving their total factor productivity should continue to see sustained growth as long as they continue to innovate. Innovation and constant change is key in order to keep an economy growing. Information is one resource in this world that we could define as infinite. An economy with an infinite amount of supply in theory is an economy that will continue to grow. Ultimately, Helpman concludes that understanding institutions are the missing key to truly understanding growth economics. In this case we can take the United States, Argentina, South Africa, and South Korea, and compare specific variables such as investment in education to more accurately predict future growth. Further analyses of these countries using Helpman’s models are done in the Data section below.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.2 Development of the Dependency Ratio . . . . . . . . . 2.2.3 Influence on Economic Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Population-Control-Policy in the Solow Model 3.1 Theoretical Analysis of the Solow Model . . . . . . 3.1.1 Solow Model with Constant Capital Stock . 3.1.2 Solow Model with Dynamic Capital Stock . 3.2 Combining Data and Neo-Classical Growth Theory 5