The Oil Price Collapse Between June 2014 Essay

As the growth in the shale, oil market is continuously increased the input of oil supplies in the market by 11 per cent, which make an oil price fall cause of overwhelming supply (Meyer,2013).As a result of this, the buyer has more choice to seek a supplier , which has a lower prices and better contract condition. Thus, these forces become a high threat to Afren.

Oil is the product that each and every one of us use. It can be used for fuel, heating and even cooking. The most often known for unstable price is crude oil or gasoline. According to the The Economist, The main reason for price shifts of oil is oversupply. The oil production in Saudi rose 10.3 million barrels per day. This increase is the effect of a new method that I being applied to oil extraction. This method is called fracking, fracking is where they drill into tight-rock formations then gradually turning horizontal for several thousand feet more. This results to accommodations to multiple oil wells. This new approved method of oil harvesting has raised the productivity gains and reduced the cost of harvesting oil.

In 2016, the crude oil price movement prices were unpredictable. The OPEC reference basket dropped 10 percent to $43.22 per pound. The ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI both went down by 8.4 percent with ICE Brent at $47.08 per pound and NYMEX WTI at $45.76 per pound. This showed that there were uncertainties in the petroleum market. The future prices were predicted for 2017 that it would move higher. The World’s economic growth predictions was the same at 2.9% for 2016 but increased to 3.1% for 2017. Because of the 3rd quarter of 2016 in Japan and US, the OCED growth went from 1.6% to 1.7%. The demand for oil growth in 2016 has been increasing slightly to 1.24 mb/d. In 2017, the demand will be predicted with a decrease to 1.15 mb/d. OECD will

High oil price for last few years drove the energy industry to come up with a new technological innovation and the result is a new drilling technique like hydraulic fracturing. This new technology made drilling easy in North Dakota and Texas (Timiraos, 2014). With more oil drilled domestically, U.S became net energy exporter instead of an importer. Also falling demand due to energy conservation, more efficient cars, less demand in China and OPEC opted against cutting production levels made the price go down. When Global economic growth was slowing and most economists agree that both supply and demand played role in the last year oil price plunge. Driven by the increased supply, oil price dropped from $82 to $50 between Oct'14 and Jan'15. The IMF summarizes 58% of the drop in oil price to supply and only 42% to demand.

Several oil-countries have been facing economic and political turbulence as a result of the crash in oil prices, and there is disagreement among OPEC as how to handle the situation. (Krauss) While this is happening, America’s oil production continues to rise, as it inches closer to becoming an energy superpower in production and consumption; and countries that depend on their oil exports face recession.

The consensus from the 1970s and 1980s was that there was an inverse relationship between oil prices and real economic activities. This belief later changed when the oil price crash of the mid-1980s failed to boost economic growth. Researchers then believed that increasing oil prices negatively affect the economy whereas falling oil prices have very little impact and by the 1990s this impact was assumed to be minimal (DePratto, de Resende and Maier 2009). More recently, researchers have found that increases in the oil prices adversely affect the economy whereas the impact of a decline in oil prices on GDP growth is only negligible (Jimenez-Rodriguez and Sanchez

This article “Why the Price of Filling Up Has Been Going Down” written by Alan Neuhauser stated that back in 2012. The article analyse fighters with the Islamic State group have seized oil fields, huge swathes of territory and major cities in Iraq and Syria, threatening oil supplies. On normal situation, this is going to threaten markets as it is threaten the supply of oil. Despite of the global unrest the prices at the pump in US are currently at their lowest levels in the year of 2012. According to the article there are several reason which make the price of oil fall, but the main reason which is causing this is the less use of oil crude after the Labor Day.

The United States consumes more than 25% of the world’s petroleum products which is a large percentage, considering only 3% of the world’s oil reserves are produced by the United States. Given the demand for petroleum products such as gasoline, understanding why Crude oil prices have skyrocketed in recent years, is not hard. According to the article “Ending America’s Oil Addiction,” the surge in crude oil prices can be reduced in large part to the simple concepts of supply and demand. (Cooper, 2008)

In a revealing article by George Perry (2001) the author discusses the economic impact that a disruption in the oil supplies would have on world oil prices. He states “Currently 28 percent of the world's crude oil comes from the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) consisting of Arab Muslim nations, some of which are not part of the OPEC cartel. The governing regimes in all these countries are at some risk [due to the war on terrorism].” He goes on to state that in a worst case scenario the economic consequences of oil supply disruption would be “oil prices rise to $161 per barrel driving gasoline price to $4.84 per gallon. The increase in the nation's bill for products of crude oil rises by about 10 percent of GDP, which adds perhaps 15 percent to the inflation rate in the first year. And the recession is the steepest and deepest of the postwar period, with GDP declining nearly 5 percent the first year.”

The U.S. was supposed to be the world’s new swing oil producer, able to nimbly open and close the taps in response to market forces, thanks to its bounty of shale fields.” In the past a barrel of oil has been one hundred dollars, recently it has dropped to thirty dollars. Though some wells can be profitable at low prices it puts a serious strain on the oil industry as explained in this article.

As known to all, domestic trade is more costly than the international trade because of the existing comparative advantages in each country. A country in an autarky cannot benefit from arbitrage of trade; and naturally, the cost of production will be higher compared with the cost of international trade. In this case, the price of the domestic U.S. oil will raise. At the same time, the limiting imports will also ramp the price of imported oil from other countries, which results in an inevitable positive oil shock in an AS-AD model. Holding the aggregate demand curve unchanged, the growth of oil price straightly shifts the aggregate supply curve upward; the country confronted with inflation and short-run output cutbacks. It exactly matches the prediction that Yglesias said: “the overall economy would slow down with inflation-adjusted incomes falling” . Even if the economy could recover back to equilibrium after the shock disappears, it is still a long journey. Thus, restricting the imports would attract a visible shrink from the economy caused by booming of oil

This report will consist of the causes and consequences of the changing price of WTI crude oil and recent trends in the global price of oil. It will also include the effects of the ever-changing price of oil on individuals, business firms, governments and the economy.

Within the last year, oil prices in the United States have dropped significantly. As oil drilling in the United States has reached its highest level in over 30 years, consumers are reaping the benefits. Among these gains are record-low prices at the pump, and cheaper oil to heat homes. However, oil prices did not just drop on their own; multiple factors contributed to the fall. Increased domestic production, declining global demand, and competition from other oil-producing nations had led to rapidly dropping oil prices across the United States.

The article Global Oil demand to slow in 2016: IEA discusses demand of oil will slow in 2016 although oil prices had been fell to the lowest point in past three months. Fell of oil prices is caused by oil company keep raising the supply and not helped Greece and China to settle their financial chaos which may make a unsettled world markets. Oil prices fell from 60% in the earlier year and the demand will decrease to 1.2million barrels from 1.4mb/d this year. However, there is a peak in the first three-month of 2015 which is at 1.8mb/d. Although oil prices had fell but Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries (OPEC) had not decided to cut their oil production as it seen as a strategy for OPEC to defend their market

The price of crude in global market is essentially driven by supply and demand. The various method developed by IMF, World Bank(WB) and OECD have estimated that 10-dollar increase in crude oil prices would lead to a decline of world production of goods and services by 0.5%. The world economic growth and world oil demand are moving in tandem and there is high correlation between world economic growth and demand for oil. Hamilton (1983) reported clear evidence of nonlinearity-oil