0.0037 in field C. Nevertheless, similar with two other larger fields, the mean and median values are still similar with base-case value.
There are several things that can be concluded from oil price MC simulation on GT values. First, there is 100% probability that the forecast GT at all fields are above 68%. Second, the CoV level from field A to field C is increasing, in-line with the rising level of GT. As discuss in the previous section, due to the regressive nature of Indonesia’s PSC term, the GT level in field C, which have the lowest profitability, is the highest among other model field. Therefore, the rising CoV is once again has been the evidence of higher risk and uncertainty, which reflects on the higher GT due to the regressive
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Furthermore, triangular distribution on devex is employed to model the simulation.
Figure 4.24 Field A Post-tax NPV - Monte Carlo Simulation on Devex per barrel Based on figure 4.24, there is 48.58% probability that the post-tax NPV forecast values in field A are greater than the mean forecast scenario of 1,118 million. In addition, there is 100% certainties that the forecast values is positive. The values prediction are ranges between $770 million and $1,473 million. Furthermore, the mean and median forecast values, which are $1,118 million and $1,114 million, are significantly higher than the base-case due to the influence of more profitable forecast results. The CoV is at 0.1363, while the level of skewness is at 0.054.
Figure 4.25 Field B Post-tax NPV - Monte Carlo Simulation on Devex per barrel Field B has similar mean and median values of around $446 million. Similar with field A, it is significantly higher than the base post-tax NPV level. Moreover, there is 50.41% certainty that the NPV forecast values are greater than the base-case value of $153 million. In addition, it ranges from around $236 million to $650 million. The CoV is at 0.198, slightly higher than the value in field A.
Figure 4.26 Field C Post-tax NPV - Monte Carlo Simulation on Devex per barrel Figure 4.26 shows that there is about 51% probability that field C post-tax NPV values are bigger than the forecast mean of $152 million. Then, it ranges
All of the cash flows are discounted back to the year of 2002 in the calculation of NPV value. With the annual cost savings of $80 from 2003 to 2007 and the integration cost of total $130, Timken’s new NPV is calculated to be -$970.42.
6. The head of the accounting department at a major software manufacturer has asked you to put together a pro forma statement of the company's value under several possible growth scenarios and the assumption that the company’s many divisions will remain a single entity forever. The manager is concerned that, despite the fact that the firm’s competitors are comparatively small, collectively their annual revenue growth has exceeded 50 percent over each of the last five years. She has requested that the value projections be based on the firm’s current profits of $4.5 billion (which have yet to be paid out to stockholders) and the average interest rate over the past
The relatively well posed project with promises of great future pay offs must be examined closely nevertheless to determine its true profitability. As such, the Super Project’s NPV must be calculated, however before we proceed we must acknowledge the relevant cash flows. The project incurred an expense of testing the market. This expense, however, must not be included in our cash flow analysis because it can be considered a sunk cost. This expense is required for ‘taking a temperature’ of the market and will not be recovered. Other sources of cash flow include:
During the period of 5 years (from 1994 to 1998), if the discount rate is 20%, Waltham plant is the only one that has a positive amount in NPV. The total net present value of this plant is approximately $6.4 million, while the other two plants have a negative number (Santa Clara: negative $3,882,499; Greenfield: negative $29,386,827).
15. What is the Present Value (NPV) to Sterling of the base investment using FCF for 2013-2033?
* If we surmise that the company’s specialist’s predictions of 4% on market growth along with renewing current and or adding more customer contracts then the profits should be as follows:
The mean, median, and range value estimates for COSTVALU and MKTVALU are higher than ASSESVAL. The statistics for last year’s value estimate (ASSESVAL) are lower than this year’s values estimates (COSTVALU and MKTVALU). The difference may be from an increase in market values over the past year. The direct comparison approach produces the most uniform estimate.
Sue Wilson, the new financial manager of New World Chemicals (NWC), a California producer of specialized chemicals for use in fruit orchards, must prepare a financial forecast for 1998. NWC 's 1997 sales were $2 billion, and the marketing department is forecasting a 25 percent increase for 1998. Wilson thinks the company was operating at full capacity in 1997, but she is not sure about this. The 1997 financial statements, plus some other data, are given in Table 1.
Cash flows were projected based on the Financial Plan covering a three year period. Cash flows to determine a terminal value were extrapolated using a constant growth rate of 2.5 per cent per annum, which does not exceed the long-term average growth rate for the
Low possibility of price increase 10% 1 0.10 3. Threats of hostile takeover 20% 3 0.60 4. High
μ of Median: 3.600. Yes, this too is also centered around the parameter of interest (3.5).
Oil prices hike or drop is normally a major concern to researchers, industries as well as the government. Oil majorly affects the operations of all sectors of economy in any nation. From analysis and monitoring of oil prices, it has been observed that oil prices went down from the second half of 2014. This was unexpected because oil prices had stabilized for about four years with each barrel costing 105 US Dollars (Miller 11). According to a research and simulation done by researchers in 2014, there was a prediction speculating oil prices would remain low in 2015 and marginally rise in 2016. However, in 2015 there has been a very sharp decline of oil prices. It is out of this concern that this papers the aims at addressing the following questions.
The mean is the average of all numbers. The Liberal’s mean is 50.76, Conservative’s mean is 38.45 and NDP’s mean is 54.57. The NDP’s mean is higher than Liberal and Conservative. It means that the NDP is more popular than the other two parties and the Conservative, which has the lowest mean, is the less popular party among these three parties. In the data center, means and medians are often tracked over time to spot trends which power cost predictions. The statistical median is the middle number in a sequence of numbers. The median is 56 for Liberal, 38 for conservative and 60 for NDP. As we can see, the mean and the median are related and following each other. When the mean is higher the median is higher too and when the mean is lower the median is lower too. To find the median, organize each number in order by size; the number in the middle is the median. Standard Deviation is a measure that is used to quantify the amount of variation or dispersion of a set of data values. A low standard deviation indicates that the data points tend to be close to the mean of the set, while a high standard deviation indicates that the data points are spread out over a wider range of values. The standard deviation for Conservative is 31.4 which is higher in relation to the other two parties. The standard deviation for Liberal is 28.4 and for NDP is 27.1. The data points in the conservative party spread out over a wider range of values in relation to the other two parties. The standard
1. Tyler’s total sales forecast for the nursery’s first full year of operations is 228,000 plants at an average sales price of $5 per plant. As a first approximation, assume that 30 percent of the firm’s customers will pay 10 days after the sale, 55 percent will pay on the 30th day, and 15 percent will pay on the 60th day.
The onset of the Q3 US corporate profits season provides a useful backdrop to analyse what financial markets are currently discounting in terms of profits growth. Furthermore, the current discussion about the prospective path of Fed policy raises the importance of accurately assessing whether earnings expectations are too optimistic. Historically, the S&P500 has tended to display sensitivity to changes in 12-month forward earnings expectations. There are weekly estimates available from a number of competing sources, such as Thomson Reuters and Factset. Typically, profit forecasts are time-weighted, thus implying that quarterly EPS estimates for 2017 will, therefore, receive a higher weighting. S&P500 operating EPS peaked in 2014, consistent with the rival data produced in the National Income & Product Accounts. The latest 12-month forward S&P500 EPS estimate is $129.93, compared to the previous actual peak of $114.51 in 2014 Q3. Thus, it appears that analysts are expecting a sharp uptick in EPS growth and that Q3’s results will constitute the final quarter of negative growth during the current profits recession. S&500 EPS growth is subsequently expected to accelerate sharply in 2017 H1 (+13%) and more-or-less maintain a +14% expansion rate during H2. Consequently, the 2017 outcome should be a new record annual operating EPS of $133.75, thereby implying a forward P/E of 16. Assuming the continuation of low inflationary