The Pros And Cons Of Overconfidence Effect

Two phenomena- hindsight bias and judgmental overconfidence- illustrate why we can’t rely solely on intuition and common sense.

An answer may be found in the Dunning-Kruger effect: the curious phenomenon of “confident idiots” emboldened by their own ignorance, rather than cautioned by it.

Randomness error: the tendency of individuals to believe that they can predict the outcome of random events.

During project planning, if you have inaccurate and low estimations this will obviously put you over budget. Some Pollyannaish PMs tend to write exaggeratedly enthusiastic estimates. The PM must rely on documenting and qualifying their figures and believe in the importance of pertinent historical data.

Problems with reliability must be resolved in order to have confidence in findings Validity * The degree to which your experimental results can be applied to external population 2 Terms that connect directly to things in lecture: * Looking Glass Self * Take others’ perceptions of you to formulate your own self concept Generalized Other (p 78) *

Believing in doubt could make you start to think that you won't succeed leading to lower confidence and self-esteem. Certainty allows one to evoke positive energy leading them to think positive resulting in a better outcome. Phelps states that with absolute certainty you can achieve and accomplish anything you can think of. Certainty is what makes people have a higher sense of credibility because if they are confident in what they believe in, other people will want to follow. Beyoncé is seen as someone in pop culture who shows a tremendous amount of

When humans make a decision, it often turns out to be “predictably irrational” (Ariely, 2009). They always deviate systematically from expected decision rather show an inclination towards a certain way of thinking. This consistency of behavioral or decision bias can be very helpful to identify consequences or outcomes in a different

There is nothing wrong with being confident, but what if you are overly confident? Everyone has something that they are good at and it is alright if people are better at something than you are. It is never good to think of yourself as better than anyone else or that you are of higher power than anyone else. However, it is also not good to bring people down if they are not as good at something as you are, at least they are trying. If you are not the best at something that should not discourage you or make you want to give up on it, it should make you want to work harder to get even better. In the movie The Nightmare Before Christmas Tim Burton uses the characters Jack Skellington, Oogie Boogie and Dr. Finkelstein to show that is not good to be egotistic for the reason that it could lead to failure in any type of situation.

C. (1988). Outcome bias in decision evaluation. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 54, 569-579.

I have a positive attitude to the opinion the author mentions in the article. Life is hard, tough and miserable. There are too many elements in our lives that can make us to be disappointed and frustrated. Therefore, self- confidence is required to avoid losing confidence. Everyone has a own unique opinion or idea, so, there are always people who stand against us or even spread rumors behind us. But those are just their own opinions,

Chapter 2 of the text book begins with an exercise designed to test the reader’s knowledge. The reader is to have a bounded range where a 98% confidence level is reached. I failed miserably in this exercise, which is probably why the chapter led with it. Bazerman writes that overconfidence is “the most robust finding in the psychology of judgment.” (p. 14) It is appears to be an innate characteristic for much of the population. Overconfidence has been studied by psychologists and three characteristics of overconfidence commonly appear: overprecision, overestimation, and overplacement. I am glad to know that I am a part of much of the population.

In the article, “In Praise of Vagueness,” researchers investigated the effect of vague information versus precise information on performance in the domains of mental acuity, physical performance, and weight loss. Though past research has found that people prefer precise information to vague when making decisions because it gives them a sense of security, it has also found that vague information causes people to have higher expectations about outcomes: when people have less precise information about what they’re doing, they assume the best case scenario rather than the worst. Researchers expected that this tendency to assume the best would allow people not only to interpret reality more positively, but to actually perform

When confidence reaches an extreme, a person will believe that everything they say, think, and do is correct. This trait, in my opinion and experience, causes people to mistrust you. Additionally, people with extreme confidence also develop an air of haughtiness, and no one is fond of condescending persons. On the other hand, A wise person often questions every fact, every action, and every intuition.Since wise people continually question themselves, they give others the impression of insecurity. Then, you may be wondering, what is the solution to this

In this paper, there are several experiments included and explained. In one of the experiments, the researchers concentrated on the relationship between optimism and a specific medical condition, in this case cardiac patients who were scheduled to undergo an artery bypass

The measure of doubt or levels of certainty arguably are negotiable for either being good or bad. Levels of certainty may be destructive upon an individual's ability and even talents. Yet the measure of doubt can withhold someone's ability to ever find out who they are destined to be. All the while when utilized right they can be inarguably healthy for an individual. Examples ranging from Marilyn Monroe an extraordinary model to Lance Armstrong a cyclists in 2000 known for his legendary career.