The S Curve and the Evolution of a Technology

1629 WordsFeb 2, 20187 Pages
Almost all of the literature that states the evolution of a technology can be represented by mean of an S Curve. The figure below gives a typical S-curve. Figure 1: Technology S-Curve, extracted from Chen, Chen and Lee [4] Figure 2: Technology S-Curves and patent activities, from Chen, Chen and Lee [4] An S-curve can be divided into four separate regions or stages that describe the technologies performance over its life cycle. These four stages are called the emerging stage, growth stage, maturity stage and saturation stage. Each of these stages can be used to define a number of different aspects of a new technology. These aspects can be the technologies performance, the number of patents being filed demand of the new technology or the adoption rate of technology by new users. 2.1.1. Stage Definition Emergent Stage: The emergent stage of a new technology’s life cycle is defined as the first stage in the development of the technology. During this stage the technology makes very little progress with regards to it performance and there are no users at this stage in the life cycle. Two reasons for this slow increase in performance are noted by Sood and Tellis[7], the reasons they present are, first the technology is not well known and may not attract the necessary attention of researchers and funding and secondly, there may be a bottleneck that needs to be overcome before the new technology can be translated into practical and meaningful improvements in product
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