For the test of Multicollinearity, I have used the ADF test and then generating the first difference variables and running regression to correct the Multicollinearity. First using the Dicky-Fuller test, the non-stationary variables were separated from the stationary variables. After which, the non-stationary variables were made stationary by using the first difference for these variables and getting them close to the mean. Now, the last step to correct the Multicollinearity was to run regression on the first difference variables. The results for this OLS regression using the first difference variables, we have only 4 significant variables as compared to 8 significant variable in the original regression. From the initial OLS regression, …show more content…
Another variable that is significant is the S&P 500 stock index. It’s significant at 1% significance level. The sign for the estimates is negative, which is similar to the intuitively one would think of. Since, we know that the investors will be investing in the gold whenever they are not confident about the market outlook, so they will be pulling out their investment from the stock market and putting it in the gold market. Which makes sense as the sign of the estimates is negative. Now, to interpret the estimates for S&P 500 variable, we can say that a unit decrease in the stock market will increase the gold price by close to $1. Which means that there is equal increase in the gold prices as the decrease in the stock market. Treasury inflation indexed securities is another variable that is significant at 1% significance level. Now, since the TIPS are indexed to the inflation, the TIPS will increase whenever there is inflation and decrease when there is deflation. The sign for the variable is negative meaning that a unit increase in the TIPS level will increase the gold prices by $0.95. Since, the TIPS level is increasing there is inflation and because of that it makes sense that the investors will be investing in the gold market when there is increase in the inflation. Oil prices variable is also significant at 5% significance level. These means that the with a unit increase in the prices of oil future contracts will increase the price of gold by $.80 cents,
The statistical significance of a coefficient tests determines coefficients potential of being zero. The zero potential increases when there is significant variance in the independent variables. A large variance also suggests that the variable used have no effect on the dependent variable.
In his essay, “The Gospel of Wealth,” Andrew Carnegie argues that the imbalance of economic wealth is essential to the advancement of society. In days past, there was little difference between the quality of life between a ruler and his subject. Alluding to a time when Carnegie visited the chief of an indigenous American tribe, he observed that the Chief of the Indians ', who lived in a state of antiquity, tent was no different from even the poorest among the tribe. Returning back to this stage of civilization would be detrimental to both the ruler and subject. Is it better for all of us to live in poverty than for a few of us to have riches? Shouldn 't those who prove themselves masters in art and literature and those of higher intelligence have more than those with no talent? This is the way society is progressing. Whether or not one actually believes that doesn 't matter, as changing the destiny of civilization is beyond one 's power. (Carnegie, 28-29)
“I was beginning to learn that your life is a story told about you, not one that you tell.”
The below table presents the mean and standard deviation of the absolute price, observed price, and the mean and standard deviation of changes in price for the price risk variables analyzed in Cases 1 and 2. These statistics were calculated after daily and weekly observations were aggregated into monthly average data set. The below table also defines the time period over which prices were observed and
As economic growth increases moderately in 2014, the rate of inflation is expected to remain below 2 percent. The price of goods in the country will continue to be restricted by global competition and use of production capacities that are relatively low as compared to historical averages. In addition, the inflation rate will remain below 2 percent because of decrease in energy prices and small increase in the prices of food. Nonetheless, while energy prices continue to reduce this year, the percentage of the decrease will be less while food prices may regain normal rate of growth.
There are an unlimited number of components that influence silver prices today. The price of silver changes every few seconds and many factors play a role in silver prices. Some of the causes for fluxes in silver prices include:curb speculation, market speculation,currency fluctuations, supply and demand, and buying power. The price of silver is always moving. This is partly because large entities and governments typically have substantial buying power and can impact silver prices through supply and demand. If a government makes a large silver purchase, the demand for that product could affect silver markets immediately. Supply and demand determines prices for commodities, and silver is no exception. Silver prices have increased over the last
Leading indicators often exhibit measurable economic changes before the economy as a whole does. One theory suggest commodity prices respond quickly to general economic shocks such as an increase in demand. The second is that changes in prices reflect systemic shocks such as a hurricane which decimates the supply of certain agricultural and is subsequently raises prices of supply costs. By the time it reaches consumers, overall prices would have increased and inflation would be realized. The strongest case for commodity prices as a leading indicator of expected inflation is that commodities respond quickly to widespread economic
This support that Multiple Linear Regression model is better than the Simple Linear Regression, because it show the relationship with the variables more accurately and you can know which one to discard, and which one to
The two stage regressions are reported in Table 8. Column 1 in Panel A shows that institutional trading frequency is decreasing in the stamp tax, which is consistent with the fact that raised stamp tax produces higher trading cost. Kleibergen-Paap rk Wald F statistic is a standard test for the weak instrument problem, which is ruled out since the p-value is 0.000. Columns 1 and 2 in Panel B suggest that the results from baseline regressions hold in IV regressions, where more frequent trading generates lower price informativeness. Difference-in-Sargan statistics show that the 2SLS and OLS estimates are the same. (p-value ranges from 0.35 to 0.55)
The concept of the coefficient of determination, R-square, is the same in both the simple regression model and multiple regression model. It is the percentage of variations of the dependent variable explained by the changes in the set of independent variables (Lind, Marchal, & Wathen, 2015). The R-square can also be obtained which tells how good the overall fit of
The one-step approximation the estimates, generalized cook distance and likelihood distance are considered. Cook and likelihood distance are two statistical diagnostics method. Models diagnostics procedures imply both graphical and formal statistical tests. These procedures recognize us to inspect whether the supposition of the regression model are justifiable and decide whether we can belief subsequent inference outcome. We use these methods to explore the performance of residual and influence in nonlinear regression model. These residuals can produce confusing results when used in diagnostic method corresponding to those for linear regression. Simulation provide to
One could also look at situations where only one variable is changes (e.g. child first vs. child second or child second vs. adult second) but these comparisons are not represented in this paper.
Table 4.1 presents the panel unit-root test results. There are two groups of hypotheses that are involved here. In the first four methods, the null hypothesis is: there is panel unit-root and the alternative hypothesis is: there is no panel unit-root and the decision
Knowing and understanding the five stages of group development is extremely important. The first step is called Forming. Forming is when the group first meet up and is getting to know each other. During the forming stage members usually introduce themselves and give a brief introduction about their likes dislikes and interest. The members usually discuss what role each person will perform, by now the group should have a group leader who should be in attendance making sure the meeting is running smoothly. The second stage is called storming, storming is when the group comes together and bring their ideas to the table. Most groups don't get passed this stage because there tend to be arguments when it comes to deciding which direction the group
The prediction interval is to forecast the MBA GPA of a 40-year-old student who studies six hours per week, works full time, and has a BS GPA of 3.0. With changing the variables from the initial regression model with a 95% confidence level which forecast the MBA GPA of 2.96 makes the forecast irrelevant. Presumably, after removing the gender variable from the calculations, I moved the other two columns of data over to columns three and four respectively. Therefore the p-value for the BS GPA remained 0.0000 which is less than the significance level of 0.05 determining this variable to remain as significant. The next variable was hours the student studies per week, and the p-value changed to 0.0018, which resulted in this variable is a significant variable as well. As a result, the multiple regression model is MBA GPA = 0.38381 + 0.77785 (BS GPA) + 0.0444 (Hours Studying) + 0.012 (Works Full-time) + -0.0004 (Age). The BS GPA is the student’s undergraduate grade point average, hours studying is the average hours the student spent studying each week, works full time is if the student worked full time or not, and the age is the age of the MBA student. Therefore, we can conclude with 95% confidence level that a 40-year-old graduate student who had an undergraduate grade point average of 3.0, spends six hours studying each week, and works full time will have an MBA GPA of 2.978. Given individual differences