The Thinker's Toolkit Summary

The analysis is then given to consumers and policy makers, once it is checked by the analyst supervisor and peers. The analyst should also be ready to give a briefing on short notice. But both the analyst and the policy maker or consumer have to be aware of at all times, is that the intelligence field does not know everything. “On any given subject, the intelligence community faces what is in effect a field of rocks, and it lacks the resources to turn over every one to see what threats to national security may lurk underneath” (Pillar).

Dunbar, G. (2005). Evaluating Research Methods in Psychology. New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons Inc.

In terms of the anchoring bias, regularly revisit of the original decision based on the newly gathered data needs to be set up within the organization. Additionally, the decision maker should avoid the Confirmation Trap in which Bazerman and Moore (2009) argues that people tend to seek information that confirms their expectations and hypotheses. To recognize the bias, Mike Francis could

In research, there is no right or wrong process; although there are many heuristics that can be passed on. Appropriate use of information requires that we see knowledge acquirement as fluid and varying. (Jones, 1996)

Multiple experiments have been conducted in which experts or professionals are able to use their extensive prior knowledge in their subjects to “thin slice” and come to a valid conclusion with respect to their field of study. There is no magic or science fiction to these decisions; they are simply made by the unconscious taking over our cognitive functions and delivering a preliminary assumption in which we, as the persons, can choose to accept or neglect the initial decision. The psychological studies

This self‐serving bias takes disconfirming information and translates it to the point that it ends up supporting and confirming one’s position. “We discount facts,” argues Bazerman, “that contradict the conclusions we want to reach, and we uncritically accept evidence that supports our positions. Unaware of our skewed information processing, we erroneously conclude that our judgments are free of bias” (p. 53). Bazerman illustrates this bias at work in his research of the auditing process at the beginning of the twenty‐first century. Despite the facts of contradiction and conflict of interest, auditors believe they are fully independent even when the successes of the organizations they audit are tightly connected to their own success.

Finally, by day 4/lesson 4 students made clear their understanding. In Student 1 Work Sample, this is apparent. In an attempt to suggest their own personal biases of the possibility of further construction for universal bathrooms, the student made specific choices in which words to use to further portray their personal biases. The student used certain words and phrases such as: safe place, remarkable, progressive, immense progression, and exist without fear, to accurately demonstrate their biases on the possibility of further construction for universal bathrooms. It is very clear that this student supports the idea of universal bathrooms existing in public places. Likewise, in Student 2 Work Sample, the author’s bias is clearly portrayed to show this students support of the United States sending military aide to help immigrants who are arriving in Greece and Turkey. This student used words and word phrases in his/her newspaper article such as: fatality, provide aide, expand, refugee, help wanted, defend, send military, to accurately portray his/her personal

As mentioned before, researcher have to accurately report results. In addition, the concept of plagiarism is a critical factor in psychological research. Everything has to be given proper citation, from quotes to tables used.

Now, it is time to give an overview of some of the design threats to construct validity. If the researcher did not define the construct efficiently than it can lead to the inadequate preoperational explication of constructs threat (Trochim & Donnelly, 2008). Next, is the mono-operation bias, which is the use of the study program only one time and one place (Trochim & Donnelly, 2008). Third, the mono-method bias is the use of any one measure or observation (Trochim & Donnelly, 2008). Finally, the confounding constructs and the levels of constructs threat (Trochim & Donnelly, 2008). Overall, this threat to construct validity is a labeling issue like some of the other threats to construct validity (Trochim & Donnelly, 2008). However, there are more design threats than listed in this paper to construct

For any measure to be valuable in psychological research, it needs to be both valid and reliable (Goodwin, 2008: 128). Research is reliable when more researchers have found the same results, or, within for instance behavioural research, when the same behaviour occurs at several measurements (Goodwin, 2008: 124). There are different types of validity. Firstly, there is construct validity, which measures whether an operationalisation of a construct actually measures what it is supposed to measure. Secondly, criterion validity determines whether a certain phenomenon is related to another phenomenon, and can accurately determine future developments. Lastly, content validity determines whether a test measures all aspects of the construct that is being measured (Goodwin, 2008: 125-126).

A person should consider I/O psychology as a science because of its use of scientific research and its practice and because of its use of descriptive and inferential statistics (Spector, 2012), “I/O psychologists do many different jobs in a wide variety of settings” (p. 6). One divides I/O settings into two areas of concern, which are scientific research and practice. The research area provides certain principles, which one applies in practice. The activity of practice involves using psychological principles for solving problems of the real-world. Scientific research and practice are both important in I/O psychology. I/O psychologist perform studies were the requirements of statistical methods are necessary for analysis of data. Statistical methods are used to perform studies are descriptive and inferential statistics. I/O psychologists use descriptive statistics for summarizing study results. I/O psychologists use inferential statistics for the purpose of interpreting the results of studies by using different statistical tests.

Research, systematic inquiry aimed at the discovery of new knowledge, is a central ingredient of the scientific method in psychology. It provides the key to understanding the degree to which hypotheses (and the theories behind them) are accurate. Just as we can apply different theories and hypotheses to explain the same phenomena, we can use a number of alternative methods to conduct research.

Throughout this course I have learned many things about research at an introductory level. Research is a critical part of all of our lives in many ways. God blesses each of us with a degree of common sense and we all learn from observing others even as babies, we learned behaviors and skills by observing our parents. Walking through experiences throughout life teach us a lot we need to know as well but sometimes we have to take a better approach when we need to learn about certain things. Many of us know that what works in some situations or with certain individuals doesn’t always work or is the safest option for another situation. Controlled and precisely organized study allows scientists to compare and examine contrasting methods and concepts, also helps them to discover various approaches and be able to learn from individual’s behaviors and experiences. I will act as the case study throughout this paper in order to observe what I have learned about.

The United States Intelligence community draws on advanced technology and analytical techniques. An intelligence process that sets objectives, collects, analyzes, and report findings, with feedback loops integrated throughout. Explicitly, the intelligence community advantages technology and tradecraft within a proscribed process. However, estimation of threats and decision-making are outcomes of human thinking. Analysts and policymakers create mental models, or short cuts to manage complex, changing environments. In other words, to make sense of ambiguous or uncertain situations, humans form cognitive biases. Informed because of personal experience, education, and specifically applied to intelligence analysis, Davis

ThinkersBox specialises in cognitive development for children aged 5 to 12 years old. The company first started in 2006 where they conducted cognitive training classes at Singapore Polytechnic. In 2007 they expanded their clients by working together with Unity Primary School and conducting trainings for students living in lower-income household. In 2010, ThinkersBox was formally established and they moved to a center of their own. Till now, ThinkersBox conducts personalized cognitive training classes for children aged 5 to 12 years old during the weekends while working with other Montessori education centers and primary schools during the weekdays. The weekend classes are more targeted at parents of children who are more well-to-do financially as the classes can be considered quite costly. The weekday classes on the other hand are less intensive and as the company works with schools, the cost is lower so that the company can reach out to children living in lower-income household who needs help to improve their cognitive development. Currently, ThinkersBox are in the midst of expanding their business overseas. They have recently worked with a partner in Thailand to open a center there and they are currently in talks with partners in India.