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The Three Phases Approach

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Chapter 3: Methodology
3.1 Three Phases Approach
In order to bridge the gaps in past literature to achieve the objective of this paper, 2 main analysis techniques were jointly applied: i) Delphi Technique ii) Opportunities, Threats and Uncertainty Analysis.
The methodology was carried out in 3 phases. Phase 1 features the study of current trade patterns by conducting a literature review in Chapter 2. Phase 2 features interview sessions with industry professionals as part of the Delphi Technique. The final stage, Phase 3, is the analysis of the interview results to determine the future outlook of Intra-Asia trade. The focus of the analysis is to identify possible opportunities, threats and uncertainties of the trade.

3.1.1 Phase 1: Current Trade Patterns Analysis
In phase 1, the current trade patterns analysis has several main considerations namely: commodity demand and supply, government policies, infrastructure and facility development. Past literatures, market reports and industry data were used in this process to determine the trade patterns. Questions were formulated accordingly to aid this paper in analysing the future outlook of the trade in Intra-Asia. These questions were then used in interviews with industry professionals in the next phase.
3.1.2 Phase 2: Delphi Technique
The first technique is the Delphi Technique. According to (Heiko, 2008), the Delphi Technique serves as an efficient group dynamic process with the aim of achieving a consensus among experts.
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