Mr. Allison first coined the phrase The Thucydides Trap, a trap where a rising power will inevitably challenge the ruling power that could most likely end in war. The Thucydides Trap is occurring in the 21st century between the US, the ruling power, and China, the rising power, who are getting increasingly more powerful on the international stage. War is most likely possible between the two powers, but past history shows that the US and China can get out of the trap through peaceful means.
The first evidence that the author uses to support his thesis is previous examples of the ruling power being challenged by the rising power. The first example that author uses is the rivalry between Athens and Sparta, which ended with the Peloponnesian war and with Sparta the victor. The war happened because Sparta and Athens had entangling alliances with other city states who went to war with each other and called the superpowers into the war.
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Even though previously they were on friendly terms, the UK felt threatened by Germany goal of having a powerful navy and sought allies in Europe to counteract Germany. The entangling alliances that UK and Germany made brought the whole world into WW1, which ended as the UK and its allies as the victors. Although 12 out of 16 examples of the Thucydides Trap ended in war, the chart in the article shows that it is possible to get out through peaceful means.
The second evidence to support his thesis is that the Chinese economy will overtake the US economy. The Chinese economy is rising significantly, its economy in 1980 was smaller than the Netherlands, while in 2014 the Chinese increment of growth of its GDP is equal to the entire Dutch economy. As shown in the GDP chart in the article, the Chinese GDP is growing significantly compared to the rest of the world and didn’t even stopped during the 2008 financial crisis and the Great
Action from necessity is a constantly recurring theme in Thucydides’ The Landmark Thucydides: A Comprehensive Guide to the Peloponnesian War. A sentiment used to explain the growth of the Athenian Empire which some Athenians espoused to an assembly at Sparta best quantifies necessity, “. . . we were necessarily compelled at first to advance the hegemony to where it is—especially by fear, and then by honor, and later by benefit.” (Selected Passages 1.75.3). This claim, referred to as the Athenian Thesis, is used to advance the two following implications: all states act with the motivations of fear, honor and interest and no one can condemn a state for doing so. The Athenian Thesis influences the way many of the Athenian elite structure their patterns of reasoning in both noticeable and subtle ways.
Nowadays, China has become the second largest economy in the world. The GDP (gross domestic product) of china was growing at 9.7% per year in average since 1978, which the year of Chinese “open door” politic founded. China also has become the biggest producer and consumer in many key agricultural and industrial markets and the largest FDI recipient among the developing countries. The performance of china in developing of economy is called “china’s economic miracle”, which be studied by many economists. However, there are also bad results with the development of economy in china such as environment disruption, corruption and
Ancient Greece during the 4th century B.C. was home to the city-states of Sparta and Athens. These two communities were the superpowers of the region during that time. The peloponnesian war between these two states evolved out of a string of events that would lead to years of conflict.
The Peloponnesian War was historic and consequential to both protagonists. The events of the war however proved to be
The Peloponnesian War was a battle between Athens and Sparta for about 30 years. Athens controlled a mass empire with a dominant Navy; however by the end of the war Athens lost their empire and lost control. There are many reasons how this conflict started and how it escalated. In the end both powerful empires fall after many years of fighting.
To capture the benefits of globalisation, the communist government has moved its focus from domestic to trade oriented. China has become the second largest economy in the world. Since 1980s, it has gone from being the 12th largest economy in the world to the second largest. This indicates that its economy has been growing with an average rate of 10 per cent per year for the last three
China has reached a milestone in terms of achieving its centenarian goal of making China a prosperous nation once again. One of the ways that it has done this is by having steady economic growth even in the midst of an economic crisis. Not only has China’s economy grown, but its standard of living has also improved, it has achieved this by spending 70 percent of its fiscal revenue towards improving people’s standard of living. China has also pushed more anti-corruption reforms and has made efforts towards widening its economy by setting up freer trade.
There is little doubt that Thucydides is regarded as one of the best historical writers for coming up with his book, presenting facts and truth about the war even though he was a general in the Athens army. By using a unique style of writing, the author was attempting a unique style which involved being aggressively rational and giving an impersonal analysis of the history of his times being free from religious influence.
Since the reform and opening up, the economy of China grows significantly, as an emerging economy, China's economy has made tremendous contributions to the global economy, and Renminbi has become one of the most important currency in the world. According to the survey conducted by China National Bureau of Statistics found that from 1979 to 2012, China has attained an annual average growth rate of 9.8% for its national economy, while the annual average growth of the world economy is only 2.8 % during the same period. In past 30 years, China's GDP surpassed Japan’s, China became the world 's second largest economy, in addition, the huge total volume of trade makes China become the world 's largest trading nation. The contribution of China’s
Sparta and Athens eventually turned against each other due to Athens becoming more powerful in the beginning of the Persian retreat. Differences between the two also was a reason tensions arise. The conflicts turned into nearly three decades of war because no single city-state was strong enough to defeat the others. It was known as the Peloponnesian War dated from 431 - 404 B.C.E. Athens ended up becoming bankrupt from the fighting. Neither Sparta, nor Athens, regained their military strength that was lost during that time.
The Chinese economy is moving along at a strong but steady pace, with GDP growth of around 10% for the past 5 years (DFAT 2011). GDP, measured in US dollars based on the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) was $9.872 trillion in 2010, $8.95 trillion in 2009 and $8.204 trillion in 2008 (CIA 2011). The GDP per capita was $7,400 in 2010, ranking it 125th compared to the world. Moreover, unemployment rate has been at a low level (less than 5%) since 1990, currently sitting at a healthy 4.3% (ADB2011). It is estimated that 2.8% of the Chinese population live below the poverty line (CIA 2011). Interest rate
The rise in China from a poor, stagnant country to a major economic power within a time span of twenty-eight years is often described by analysts as one of the greatest success stories in these present times. With China receiving an increase in the amount of trade business from many countries around the world, they may soon be a major competitor to surpass the U.S. China became the second largest economy, last year, overtaking Japan which had held that position since 1968 (Gallup). China could become the world’s largest economy in decades.
The Peloponnesian war was fought between the two city states in ancient Greece, being Athens and Sparta. These two cities had alliances that, between them, included close to every Greek city-state. The Peloponnesian war was inevitable because Athens was too hungry for power, and tried to take total control of Greece. Athens’s growth in military and economic power led to the beginning of a bloody war.
Thucydides trap is a metaphor that is meant to remind us of the power struggle within the international realm. The “rising power rivals the ruling power, just as Athens did to Sparta in Ancient Greece; similarly to how Germany did to Britain almost about a century ago” (Allison). Thucydides’ is a good analogy as to the possibility and predictable path for the United States and China. In the article, The Thucydides Trap: Are the U.S. and China Headed for War? Graham T. Allison makes the argument that suggests the inevitable warfare that the
Thesis: The aftermath of World War II was the start of a new era. It created the decline of the previous ruling forces and the rise of the two superpowers; Soviet Union and the United States of America, creating a clash between the two bipolar opposite countries. Following World War II and the Suez crisis in 1956, The British Empires status as a superpower was greatly diminished. For the remainder of the Cold War the United States and the Soviet Union came to be viewed for the most part as the two remaining superpowers, dominating the majority of all world affairs. (Syracuse University News)