Theory of Demographic Transition Essay

2,000 years ago the world, in terms of population, was only the size of the United States of America, 300 million people. Today, the world’s population is at seven billion and counting. If the population rose at a steady rate from year 0, we would’ve reached 1 billion people by about 210 A.D. This, however, was not the case. We reached 1 billion people in 1800 A.D, which means that there had to be very odd growth periods for the population as a whole REWORD ME. From 0 to 1000 A.D. the population only rose about 10 million people, “and well into the second millennium, [the population] grew less than 0.1 percent each year” [1]. However, from the year 1800, with 1 billion people worldwide, to 1930, the world gained another billion people. We then reached three billion people in 1960, five billion in 1987, and 7 billion in 2013. One can clearly see that once we entered the 19th century, the world’s population started growing like a 14 year old boy going through puberty; rapidly, and without any warning. One thing that can explain this growth is called the Demographic Transition.The Demographic Transition is a theory that explains the growth.

In order to determine which stage of the Demographic Transition a country is in, you must know what the demographic transition is, what each stage is and how to know if a country is in that stage. The Demographic Transition is a process of change in a society’s population. Stage 1 of the demographic transition is low population growth. If a country is in stage one of the demographic transition that country would have a high Crude Birth Rate(CBR) and a high Crude Death Rate(CDR) that together would produce a low natural increase. Stage 2 of the demographic transition is high growth. If a country is in stage two of the demographic transition, the country would have a declining CDR and a very high CBR that together would produce a high natural

Demographic transition is the process by which a nation/country moves from high birth rate and high death rates to low birth and low death rates as the growth population in the interim (Weeks, 2005). Some of the nations that have gone through this transitions are; Canada, Germany, United States and England. The demographic transition to an industrialized society is harmful to the environment. Industrialized countries also have the largest ecological and carbon footprint comparative to developing/non-industrialized nations. Nevertheless, demographic transitions have some notable advantages. Countries that have gone through demographic transitions have low birth and death rates. Citizens in

Afghanistan is in Stage 2 due to the rise in population caused by a decline in the Crude Death Rate (14) while the Crude Birth Rate (38) remains high. CDR declines as new health care systems arrive, and CBR still remains high because most families are still subsistence farmers (and deeply involved in cultural tradition). The population pyramid is expansive and has straight sides. The pyramid shows a slightly longer life expectancy and more people living into middle age. The change in the age structure of the population leads us to conclude that Afghanistan is in Stage 2 of the demographic transition.

Having a high birth rate implies a perpetually developing populace, which will expand the necessities of more "accommodation, education, and health care" (Macleod, M.). When you neglect to control high birth rates, the expansion of the populace is inescapable. Expanding requirements of the extending populace can't be given effectively. Hence, it will bring about lack of healthy sustenance, wellbeing issues and disappointment among individuals. Furthermore, with a high birth rate in a quickly developing populace, social issues will prompt social emergencies and chaos. Consequently, high birth rate in a populace is a serious issue that should be tended to promptly to dodge emergencies.

In Djibouti, the average life expectancy of a male is 60 years old while the average life expectancy of a female is 63 years old. Compared to more developed regions, these are very low numbers. The infant mortality rate is also high at 48.7 out of 1,000 children dying. These statistics are due to the medical healthcare that still needs improvement and harsh agricultural lifestyle that takes place in Djibouti. Low life expectancies are found primarily in lower developed countries because of poor health conditions that still need improvement, and high infant mortality rates are found in lower developed countries due to the diseases and poor sanitation that is still present within the country. Therefore, Djibouti is a lower developed country and is classified as a stage 2, validating the demographic transition

The living condition for countries earlier in the demographic transitions such as health and food supply are improving. Thus better health conditions decrease death rates and more food supply can lead to increasing birth rates. Since living conditions (health and

In Stage one, birth and death rates high, but have a low total population due to the high death rates.

This talk connects to the key term of demographic transition because in order for the population of the world to cease growing

In ancient times up until today humans were still in stage one though now no country is any longer in that stage, as every nation has now moved at least to stage two and has therefore experienced many changes in their population according to().usually during the first stage people used to live on hunting and gathering to get food and when there was enough food for everyone population used to increase on the other hand if food was hard to find they usually saw a decline in their population. Whereas stage two it’s a stage of high growth which means there is a rapid decline in death rate yet having a rapid growth in the population, therefore having a high natural increase, this is mainly because of improvements in medicine or access to cleaner and healthier life. Usually, countries that experience an improvement in their standard of living for example because of industrial revolutions they tend to enter such a stage, such countries that entered this stage were North America and Europe. Then comes the third stage is known as the stage of decreasing growth whereby BR declines while DR stays declining and according to () NIR begins to moderate. In this stage, there still is growth though slower than stage two a society enters this stage when people decide to have fewer children which goes back to access to contraception and a better economic condition. Usually developed countries with a good job and standard of living are in such stages which according to () that their economic conditions encourage them to have fewer children. Finally stage four the stage of low growth in which there’s a very low BR and CR and the possibility of even a low NIR, A country reaches such a stage when CBR is equal to CDR and the NIR is almost zero. This happens because women enter the labor force and people will have a

The death rates have the possibility of ranging from as high as 37 to as low as 18 deaths per 1000 population. This drop in death rates may be due to the effects of urbanization and new technology, as life expectancy rose the death rates have fallen because of the new medical and sanitation advancements. Improved foodstuff storage and distribution and a rising per person income also allowed for death rates to drop. With urbanization, the environment became better equipped for many families, with access to medical amenities, food, and other necessities that were not reliable before. Birth rates still remain high since cultural practices are harder to change than an easy implementation technology. This would also be due to the fact that children seem more desirable because once at the proper age they can work and help parents earn money and care for their family. With the effect of falling death rates, the population will see an increase in size because of the growing difference between the two

Unlike society a few decades before, the life expectancy has increased and now America is seeing an exponential growth to the elderly population. There are many factors that could be the cause of this. Looking at the demographic transition theory in conjunction with the Malthusian theory brought valuable insight for me. The demographic theory says there are four stages to population growth that are predictable. Those who are in their late 80’s and above were capable of seeing all four of these stages in America. As they aged and the stages for population advanced so did technology. Malthusian theory claims that there are three factors that prevents the human population exceed its carrying capacity, which are food, disease, and war. Those who lived through the four stages of America were lucky enough to see technology advance to prevent those factors in being lethal to our population. It became possible for adults to live on to see their grandchildren and eventually their great grandchildren.

The demographic transition model is a picture of population change over a period. In 1929 American demographer, Warren Thompson, observes the changes or shifts in birth and death rates in industrialized societies over a 200 year period. There are four stages of the Demographic Transition Model; Stage One (Pre-Modern) or High Flunctuating, up through the 18th Century and mostly agricultural, Crude Birth Rates (CBR) and Crude Birth Rates (CDR) are both high (30-50 per thousand). The population growth is slow and fluctuating. Infectious diseases and poor hygienic behaviors and not having clean drinking water mean few children nor adults can survive if there is little or no access to medicine. In Stage Two, Early Expanding, there is a rising population rate (CBR) increase and a (CDR) decline. High birth rates and low death rates mean life longer expectancy of a population resulting in population growth. It also means better sanitation conditions, better food quality and having the necessary medicine to combat illnesses. Transitioning to Stage Three, Late Expanding there is a decline in CDR and CBR. The population rises and birth rate fall. Living standards and income levels change for the better. Women have fewer children, become players in the workforce and seek higher educational levels along with their male counterparts. In Stage Four or Low Fluctuating , the human population stabilizes due to little CDR but more

Demographic Transition - the transition to high death and birth rates to low death and birth rates

Population size and growth has been a subject matter of research oriented people and economists from the time immemorial. It is so because the absorption of resources of a country and people living in the country are closely correlated according to the Malthus theory of Population. Therefore, an attempt has been endeavoured to find initially the demographic transition occurred in superpower China (that has gone a long way in transforming its huge population into demographic dividend) the cause and effect relationship of the same and then moving on to the study of Indian demographic transition and how this transition can help in reaping the demographic dividends. Eventually the empirical tests have been done in order to find out the impact of different variables on the growth of population and how the same can be controlled. To support our study and arrive at useful conclusions, a vital comparison has been done with China that is holding a large demographic profile similar to India. The comparison has facilitated us to take lessons from the former country so that policies could be designed, modified and cautiously applied in our own country enabling us to suitably propose the recommendations. Lastly a vision for India is hoped for, where population is stabilized, population age structure is optimal and economic growth of the