Understanding And Forecasting The Foreign Exchange Rate

Capital markets provide a function which facilitates the buying and selling of long-term financial securities to increase liquidity and their value, Watson & Head (2013). Hence, the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) explains the relationship that exists with the prices of the capital market securities, where no individual can beat the market by regularly buying securities at a lower price than it should be. This means that in order to be an efficient market prices of securities will have to fairly and fully reflect all available information, Fama (1970). Consequently, Watson & Head (2013) believe that market efficiency refers to the speed and quality of how share price adjusts to new information. Nevertheless, the testing of the efficient markets has led to the recognition of three different forms of efficiency in which explains how information available is used within the market. In this essay, the EMH will be analysed; testing of EMH will show that the model does provide strong evidence to explain share behaviour but also anomalies will be discussed that refutes the EMH. Therefore, a judgment will be made to see which structure explains the efficient market and whether there are some implications with the EMH, as a whole.

Page 3: Introduction to the Financial System Page 7: Commercial Banks Page 12: The Share Market and the Corporation Page 15: Corporations Issuing Equity into the Share Market Page 19: Investors in the Share Market Page 24: Short-term Debt Page 28: Medium- to Long-term Debt Page 32: Interest Rate Determination and Forecasting Page 37: The Foreign Exchange Market Page 40: Factors that Influence the Exchange Rate Page 42: Futures Contracts and Forward Rate Agreements Page 47: Options

The exchange rates risk that is associated with economic, transaction, and translation exposure in Indian market. From the analysis, anticipate the fluctuations that seem to occur in the next 24 months

In the similar time period Japanese Yen has been in the third position with a turnover position of 20.8% in the year 2005. The overall financial market currency structure has seen a decline in the turnover position of the US Dollar to 85% from a strong position of 88%. Similarly a decline has been in the position of the Japanese Yen to 17.2% from an acceptable turnover position of 20.8%. While considering the trend of these two currencies during the period starting from 2007 and ending at 2010, it is to be noted that minute changes were seen in the two different currencies with regards to their share in foreign currency market. The US Dollar witnessed a continued fall to 84.9% from its previous 85.6% however, the Japanese Yen saw a rise from its previous position of 17.2% to an increase of1.8% that is 19%. During the same time period the US dollar and Japanese Yen were the second most traded paired currencies and was traded at around 14% of the overall foreign currency market second to the US Dollar and Euro pair. Conclusion The foreign exchange market has seen considerable changes owing to the global financial crisis. It is to be seen how different factors like economy and global politics further impact strong currencies like the US Dollar and other competing currencies such as the Japanese Yen.

In order to minimise the effect of the potential losses due to foreign currency exchange rate, it essential to understand the use of financial instrument.

Under the idea that markets are efficient, stock prices reflect new information quickly and accurately. Furthermore, Morningstar (n.d.) contributes details on the strongest supportive theory of efficient markets, EMH exists in three forms: weak, semi-strong and strong. The hypothesis calls for the existence of informationally efficient markets, were current stock prices reflect all information, and attempts to outperform the market will only come in the form of riskier investments. Also, because of a large number of independent investors actively analyzing new information simultaneously as it enters the market, investors react accordingly and is immediately reflected in the stock

We are using the third currency pair i.e. GBP/USD for the conduct of the study and the appreciation / Depreciation of these currencies over the

It is known that exchange rates float according to market conditions and that the appreciation or depreciation of a currency that we trade with my have an impact on the eventual revenue obtained so it is important for us to predict what the movements with the currency will look like.

The random walk model suggests that the current exchange rate is the best predictor of the future exchange rate. In other words, the current exchange rate reflects the future exchange rate. However, this model is questioned, past history of the exchange rate can’t predict the future of the exchange rate so we can say that the random walk model is inconsistent with the technical analysis because it tries to use today’s exchange rate to predict tomorrow’s exchange rate.

Figure 6 illustrate the trend of exchange rate between RMB and USD for the past 30 days. There was a constant trend at the beginning of the month and then climb to the peak of 6.50873 on 16th May. The exchange rate fluctuates in the following days with a general downward trend and reached the bottom of 6.47431 on 6th of June.

Financial markets are said to be efficient when security prices fully reflect all available information. In such a market, security prices adjust very rapidly to new information.

It is well-known that currencies exchange rates is difficult to forecast accurately. There are a lot of models can be used to get relatively accurate estimating result of volatility. Using those models to research currency exchange rate volatility is necessary. A timely and accurate exchange rate estimating can provide valuable information in various fields, such as, economy, finance and polity, which is helpful to get more effective portfolio allocation, better foreign exchange rate investment result, more accurate assets pricing and more efficient politics administration.

First of all, we believe that the exchange rates can be affected by political decisions. For example, the

The depth and intensity of exchange rate volatility and its impact on the volume of international trade was recognized during 1970s when the world economy shifted from fixed exchange rate to free floating exchange rate. The hypothesis may be that if the exchange rate volatility is higher then it will generate uncertainty of the future profit from

• Financial management effort: To minimize the risk of exchange-rate fluctuation and transactions processes of export activity the financial management needs more capacity to cope the major effort