Essay on Using Calculus to Model Epidemics

3. Epidemiologists often draw causal webs to illustrate the interrelationships among biological, social, and environmental variables that contribute to disease outbreak. Based on what you have learned so far, what variables should be included in a causal web for cholera?

1. Understanding epidemiologic concepts of the chain of transmission of organisms from host to victim, describe how EH could have been infected.

Another highly analyzed theory is the “Epidemic Diseases Theory”. This theory postulates that widespread disease crippled the region and led to rapid depopulation, although there is speculation about the exact type of disease. James Brewbaker believes that the disease originated from the corn in the lowland regions of the area. In his article in Economic Botany, he writes, ”the maize mosaic virus (MMV), is proposed as the contributing cause of the collapse” . This is a devastating virus that is transmitted from insects of the tropic lowlands into the corn. It is fairly conclusive that the insects of the region spread this illness, although the exact disease is not known. They

Viruses, Plagues, and History, written by Michael Oldstone, is an insightful and highly educational book that details the history of, that’s right, viruses and plagues. Through typically dry, yet engaging prose, Oldstone recounts what seems like all of it while simultaneously bringing to light the contributions of those brave scientists who asked themselves, “why.” He focuses his attention on some of the most notable viruses such as smallpox, yellow fever, measles, polio, and later he focuses on more contemporary battles against disease.

“What made this pestilence more severe was that whenever those suffering from it mixed with people who were still unaffected”. Let’s take for example throwing a pebble or a rock to the water, one can see that it creates some rings that gets bigger and bigger. That’s how the spreading started, one gets the disease and whoever has contact with that person, they would be affected by it also and then give it to someone else and so on until most people died from

The epidemilogic triangle describes the relationships and interactions among the infectious agent, the host, and

Most diseases begin with what is called "the virgin field"—a scenario in which humans have no natural or man-made immunity to the disease. To see the progress of a disease in a particular community, start by predicting how many sick days will be reported when you run the Kold disease through a medium-sized population, and record your prediction in the data table. In this first run-through, we'll assume that the population does not move around the field; they interact with their neighbors, but do not travel long distances.

3. What is the connection between other Vector-Borne diseases and the Black Plague that took millions of lives in the past?

The second thing I researched was the spread of both the black plague and AIDS. The way that the black plague spread was that the bacteria was carried by fleas on rats then to people then it spread from person to person. The way that AIDS spreads is through the transfer of bodily fluids to another person such as giving birth, sharing needles, and having unprotected sex. I have decided that

When an infectious agent persists, or when it infects a greater number of people or in a larger area than expected, this is referred to as an outbreak or epidemic. There can be any number of elements that fall under each of the Triangle’s vertexes. The following are the elements that make up the Epidemiological Triangle for Ebola.

In the infectious disease unit, the main focal point consisted of showing the audience how the spread of a major virus may occur in population. In this case, we were presented with two movies: Contagion and 28 Days Later. These movies both displayed an infectious disease, which is spread through animals causing harm to people. A scenario that presented in Contagion seemed to be realistic possibility because a simple transmission of disease from an animal can happen. If the virus is unknown and no vaccine is available, it could certainly cause a lot of harm to a large population of people. Likewise, another possibility was also presented in 28 Days Later, where the viewers see scientist talking about monkey being infected with a virus.

Margaret Chan once said, "after all it really is all of humanity that is under threat during a pandemic.” One’s complete humanity is irreparably changed by a pandemic. Throughout time, from the Middle Ages, to the Modern Era, mankind has been plagued with pandemics. In the time of the Middle Ages, from 1328-1351, the infamous pandemic was The Bubonic Plague, otherwise known as The Black Death, which claimed 200 million lives in Europe and 35 million in China.1 The Zika virus is a current pandemic most prominently found in Central and South America that causes birth defects.2 The Ebola virus is a pandemic found predominantly in West Africa that has claimed the lives of thousands.3 The causes and effects of pandemics over time have changed very

A communicable disease chain is the mechanism by which an infective agent or pathogen is transmitted. The chain requires an infective agent, a source of infection, a mode of transmission and a host. An example of an infective agent could be bacteria, a virus, fungus, protozoan or helminth. The source of infective agents can be transmission from host to host, an infected human or animal, insects, soil or livestock. The mode of transmission is how the infective agent is carried from host to host. Transmission can be by air, ingestion or physical contact. To complete a life cycle or to replicate, the infective agent requires a host.

This model helps us to understand how the agent, host and environment coexist with each other in a state of equilibrium or balance and then represents the spread of disease or injury when there is a shift to that equilibrium or balance

“The rodents spread the plague from China to Europe and it hit Britain in 1348.”(Bates, Claire) So if the world is so populated more people will be homeless, and the disease could spread easier wiping out millions. The black death was also spread by people getting bites from infected rats, the disease travels through the body into the lungs, and when the person coughs or sneezes, the disease is transmitted into the air and can infect people who breath in that same air. So if the world becomes too over populated and there aren’t enough houses people will be living on the streets where disease could spread easier and faster just like the black death. “Indirect contact infections spread when an infected person sneezes or coughs, sending infectious droplets into the air.”(DIRECT…) So if everyone if coughing and sneezing then anyone who breathes in that contaminated air could get the disease. “Last year, it called dengue the “most rapidly spreading mosquito-borne viral disease” in the world—faster than West Nile virus or malaria.”(The deadly…) If this disease was to break out when the world is overpopulated a disease could take out almost half the entire human race.There are hundreds of diseases that can be spread by animals, some examples are all types of Influenza, Bubonic Plague, zoonotic diseases, HIV/AIDS, Ebola, and Polio. One disease is the Zika virus, it is spread by mosquito bites who bite women and when if the infected women gets pregnant the Zika virus transfers the virus to the child, once the child is born the child could be born with a fatal brain defect. When the world becomes more populated more people could get bit with more mosquitos and get the Zika virus and a whole new generation of kids could be born with a brain