Valuation Of Southwest's Common Equity As A Prudent Investment

Dick’s Sporting Goods has had reputable equitability consistently throughout the years. Investors have been able to regularly earn a respectable return on their investments. However, some of the valuation metrics of Dick’s Sporting Goods are slightly troublesome. The price to earnings ratio, which is one of the most commonly used gauge of valuing equity securities, has decreased over the last 3 years and recently decreased 24% compared to the previous year, while their earnings per share has increased every year with the exception of the current year where it decreased minimally. This indicates that the market is lessening their expectations of the company. Another commonly used measure is the price to cash flow which eliminates the manipulation that is possible with net income that is used in the price to earnings ratio. This ratio also has decreased recently, thus also indicating a lessening in expectations in the market.

This proposal accounts for the new debt and equity mix of Star Appliances by estimating the company’s cost of equity. The methods used include the dividend discount model, the earnings/price model, and the CAPM model. After analyzing all three possibilities, it is apparent that the CAPM model provides the most accurate estimate of Star Company’s cost of capital because it accounts for the beta. Using the CAPM model, the new Star Company cost of equity is calculated as 9.4% and the WACC is determined to be 9.14% at the 9.5% debt rate.

The cost of equity was found using CAPM, with the given market risk premium of 5%, a beta of .88, and risk-free rate of 4.03%. The beta was found by running a regression of Southwest’s percent change in stock price versus the S&P 500’s percent change in stock price for two years (June 28, 2000 to June 28, 2002). The risk-free rate was the return on a ten-year treasury note issued on June 28, 2002, according to the U.S. Treasury’s website. The tax rate of 39% was used to account for tax savings from leverage. In order to calculate the firm’s leverage, the market value of equity was found from the price per share on July 24, 2002 (Yahoo Finance) and the shares outstanding on the balance sheet of the July 10-Q report, as shown in Exhibit X. The debt value was approximated at the book value since data could not be found regarding its market value. This analysis resulted in a debt weight of 11.74% and equity weight of 88.26%. The final approximation for the weighted average cost of capital was 8.64%.

in our calculations, as this company exhibited dramatic value differences to others in the sample, (likely to skew our results and prove misleading). Using the average of the revised sample field for each ratio, we inserted Torrington’s values where appropriate to generate an entity value. The findings generated two values for Torrington, 606 million and 398 million. Taking the average of these two numbers, Torrington exhibited a relative value of 502.41 million. Because of the lack of related information given in the case, and the often large differences in measures amongst competitors, different capital structures, internal management strategies, there remained many unknowns in our model. We decided it would be best to use this valuation to reaffirm our assumptions in our DCF valuation. (Please see exhibits)

To find the cost of equity we used the formula rs = rRF + beta*MRP in which rRF2002 = 5.86% and the Market Risk Premium (MRP) = 5% as calculated by the Southwest Airlines finance department. We then calculated the beta for Southwest Airlines based on a regression analysis of five-year monthly returns on Southwest stock from January 1997 to January 2002, compared with the S&P 500 returns over the same period. This regression analysis indicated that Beta = .2219. Therefore,

The valuation process, in this case, requires us to estimate the short-run non-constant growth rate and predict future dividends. Then, we must estimate a constant long-term growth rate at which the firm is expected to grow. Generally, we assume that after a certain point of time, all firms begin to grow at a rather constant rate. Of course, the difficulty in this framework is estimating the short-term growth rate, how long the short-term growth will hold, and the long-term growth rate.

• Pe = D1/(re – g) = 700 / (0.11 – 0.05) = $11,667 • price per share = $11,667 / 1,000 = $11.67 3. Same facts as (2) above, except the 5% income growth rate (and beginning of year common equity to support it) are only expected for years 2 and 3. Then growth is expected to be zero and all income is expected to be distributed to shareholders for all future years. a. Compute D1, D2, D3, and Dt for all future years. • Keeping in mind that income is $1,100 in year 1, increases by 5% in years 2 and 3, and then remains constant for all future years; and keeping in mind that beginning of year 1 common equity is $8,000, increases by 5% at the beginning of year 2 and at the beginning of year 3, but does not increase at the beginning of year 4 and remains constant from that point forward, you should be able to compute: D1 = $700, D2 = $735, and Dt = 1,212.75 for D3 and all future years. b. Use the dividend discount (i.e., free cash flow to equity investors) valuation model to estimate the company’s current stock price. Pe = 700/(1+ 0.11) + 735/(1+ 0.11)2 + [1,212.75/0.11]/(1+ 0.11)2 = $10,175.31 and the price per share of common stock = $10,175.31 / 1,000 = $10.18. 4. Same facts as (3) above, except the growth rates are 5% for years 2 and 3 and then 3% perpetually for all future years. a. Compute D1, D2, D3 and the growth in D for all future years. • Keeping in mind that income is $1,100 in year 1, increases by 5% in years 2

The management of JetBlue and its underwriters can also price the IPO using valuation multiples. JetBlue can employ the most current comparable data of the most appropriate competitors in terms of value in the airline industry. Valuation multiples that can be employed include, but are not limited to P/E multiples, EBIT multiples, EBITDA multiples. In this scenario, I choose to use Southwest airlines and Ryanair as the major benchmarks, because they are both considered as major low –fare airlines, and are key competitors in the United States and Europe. Nevertheless, I believe the P/E ratio is the stronger valuation tool to determine the true value of a firm. Using this method we come up with a share price of $19.32 for Southwest

The free cash flow method is used to gauge “a company’s cash flow beyond that necessary to grow at the current rate… [to ensure companies] make capital expenditures to continue to exist and to grow” (Drake, n.d.). Calculation of free cash flows utilizes various components, including a firm’s value, cash flow forecasts, a firm’s capital structure, the cost of capital, and/or discounted cash flows.

Conversely, looking at the income statement for PMWL, operating income shows healthy gains of $45,862, which means the operating expenses are significantly lower in comparison to AWBL’s. However, PMWL’s cost of goods sold appear abnormally high, which makes an investor question whether this company is at it’s maturity phase in the product life cycle, and how much additional capital is necessary to bring this figure down to a number that leverages economies of scale and allows for profit maximization.

7. Compare your valuation with Smith Barney’s. What assumptions do you have to make to get the terminal value EBITDA multiples used by Smith Barney. Is there any benefit of their method relative to FCF method?

It is determined that the company worth is $856,518 with a share price of $351.03 per value as per the discounting dividend cash flow valuation approach..In appraising the anticipated premerger performance of the company, the weighted average cost of capital is computed; the worth of the WACC for FVC is 9.2% as depicted in

A discounted cash flow analysis measures the value of a company todays based on calculated predications of how much money they will make in the future. This valuation method is used to determine how profitable an investment is. To conduct a DCF analysis, I used future free cash flows predictions ranging from years 2016 through 2026 to get an estimated present value. My ultimate goal in conducting a discounted cash flow analysis for this project is to value to the equity of the stock and find the stock price for the Danaher Corporation.

Q2: Use the FCF Valuation Template below to modify the analysis in the case, Ex. 6 (incorrectly labeled Ex. 5), calculating and defending an estimate of Crocs value. Soln: The preferred method to determine a company’s going-concern value by adjusting for risk and time. Simply put, the value of equity = value of firm – value of debt. So to find the intrinsic or fair values of Crocs, the forecast numbers from exhibit 6 were plugged into the provided template and appropriate entries from the balance sheet and income statement were entered. Assumptions: The depreciation and amortization amounts, capital expenditures were pulled directly from exhibit 6 assuming them to be incremental. Other assumptions include the discount rate at 10.96%, the long-term growth at 6%, and market value of debt as zero and no redundant assets. The firm will have perpetual growth after 4 years at a rate of 6%. The free cash flows along with terminal value calculated are listed below:

The current valuation for the company is based on the DCF valuation model which assumes, valuation based a market risk-free rate of