WAR Based System

Thesis: The Fundamentals of baseball can result in a successful pitcher is proper mechanics, good arm motion to hit your target and lots of flexibility/mobility that can result in high velocity meaning speed.

The new approach helped the Oakland A’s succeed because it was ethical. Billy Beane used numbers to evaluate the players. Numbers matter but can be misleading. By looking closely and understanding what he was doing Billy made good decisions based on numbers. The old approach was unethical because it misjudged the players. In the “old fashion statistics of the players some key important factors were left out. For instance the old statistics did not mention the number of walks a batter earned. This left out information misleads coach’s judgments and resulted in scouts undervaluing players.

Baseball statistics are meant to be a representation of a player’s talent. Since baseball’s inception around the mid-19th century, statistics have been used to interpret the talent level of any given player, however, the statistics that have been traditionally used to define talent are often times misleading. At a fundamental level, baseball, like any game, is about winning. To win games, teams have to score runs; to score runs, players have to get on base any way they can. All the while, the pitcher and the defense are supposed to prevent runs from scoring. As simplistic as this view sounds, the statistics being used to evaluate individual players were extremely flawed. In an attempt to develop more

Well, it starts at the top and trickles down. Werner, John Henry, and Larry Lucchino were quick to send Jon Lester, John Lackey, and other pitchers packing because they were too old. Little did we know that 30 is the new 20. Lester left Boston and has done some of his best work. Looking at age alone and ignoring talent is just plain dumb.

If the Dodgers want to make a run in the postseason, their relief pitching needs to be playing at the level that they are playing right now. As of today, the Dodgers relief pitching is tied for second in ERA with a 3.41 in the National League. The more incredible thing about this statistic is that the Dodgers’ relief pitchers have played the most innings in the NL with 482.1, that’s almost 100 more innings than the Washington Nationals, who lead the NL with the lowest ERA. So, even though the Dodgers are tied in second for lowest ERA among relief pitchers, they have played a lot more innings than any other

In the offseason, a number of Camden Depot (http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2015/01/appreciate-what-miguel-gonzalez-is.html) writers (http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2015/01/looking-at-miguel-gonzalezs-clutch.html) wrote articles discussing how Miguel Gonzalez has outperformed his FIP. This year has turned out to be no exception so far as he has an ERA of 3.33 and an FIP of 4.60 (http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2012&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=7024) based mainly upon a .235 BABIP (2nd best out of 106) and an 82.2% LOB (7th best out of 106).

The other day, I got into an argument about Rick Porcello. One person made that argument that if you believe in fWAR, Porcello has been good. He’s been worth 8.4 fWAR over the past 3.5 years or about roughly 2.4 fWAR per year primarily due to a strong FIP and the ability to pitch a lot of innings. If one win costs $7.5 million then paying $20 million per year is a slight but not huge overpay. Writers at Fangraphs have also argued that Porcello is underrated (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-underappreciated-and-evolving-rick-porcello/), that he’s developed nicely into a 3 win player (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/tigers-and-red-sox-swap-cespedes-and-porcello/) that moving to Boston will make him better (http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/three-things-the-red-sox-will-do-for-rick-porcello/) and that he is worth ((http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/rick-porcellos-upcoming-enormous-payday/) roughly $20 million per year (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/red-sox-lock-up-rick-porcello/). Paul Swydan, an author for Fangraphs, wrote an article in the Boston Globe suggesting that Porcello is the thirteenth best pitcher in baseball (https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2014/12/19/red-sox-really-need-get-ace-pitcher/mSX30HHA8zMnh1jVd0XGmO/story.html). On the other hand, I made the argument that Porcello is a slightly better version of Bud Norris. Let me explain why I made that argument and why just using one number to decide a pitcher is worth $100 million isn’t always the best

The 2001 offseason was a critical time for the A's front office. Center fielder Johnny Damon, first baseman Jason Giambi, and closer Jason Isringhausen were all free agents and the A's knew there was no way that they could afford to keep them. Beane believes that effective closers were overpriced in the free agent market because he thinks that saves are an overrated statistic. (Lewis pgs.125-126) So when replacing the hole left by Jason Isringhausen's departure Beane traded away a solid prospect in Eric Hinske to pick up an effective but less expensive reliever in Billy Koch from Toronto. This is an example of a tactic used by

The Washington Post news article, “Stephen Strasburg Shutdown” discussed the Washington nationals decision that manager mike Rizzo made prior to the season start to shut down the former number 1 pick, there ace Stephen Strasburg after he reached the 160 innings pitch mark no matter where they were in the postseason race, they were shutting him down for the remainder of the season. This created controversy around the sports world for the whole year of 2012 and is still being talked about on sports talk shows today. The nationals finished the regular season with the best record in the major leagues and a lot of that success was because of #37. He carried the pitching staff all

Everyone has a specific skill set that they are good at. Some people are good with numbers, others have a gift for writing. The same is true in sports. The Buffalo Bills are very good at losing and disappointing their fans, while the Patriots are fantastic at bending the rules and winning Super Bowls. In baseball, each team is built around a specific group of players in order to create the best possible chance to win the World Series. Some of the greatest players have created seemingly unbreakable statistics. Joe DiMaggio had a hit in fifty-six consecutive games. Barry Bonds hit seven hundred and sixty-two home runs over his twenty-two-year career. Statistics like these only come about once in a generation. Teams are comprised of various talent. Some are like Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera always has a batting average over .300 with at least 25 home runs. These types of players are considered great hitters. Other’s, like Stephan Drew, get a hit less than 20% of the time they have an at bat. Players similar to Drew’s skill set have a job because they are very good at defense and their value on defense out ways their value on offense to their specific team. Baseball is sport rich with statistics. Almost anything one can come up with, has a statistic. In the last ten years alone, top executives, such as Billy Bean, have constructed teams based on advanced statistics and have been fairly successful, like the 2002 Oakland Athletics. Other teams, like the Houston Astros,

Dating back to the offseason, Washington has been linked to different relievers, such as David Robertson, Kelvin Herrera, and A.J. Ramos. While Herrera seems unlikely to be dealt, due to Kansas City’s resurgence, Robertson and Ramos could be paired with Iglesias to form a dangerous bullpen.

But Mateo wasn’t the only player the Yankees shipped out in the trade; Cashman threw in the Yankees’ No. 1 pitching prospect and 2015 first-round draft pick James Kaprielian into the deal. Kaprielian had Tommy John surgery this spring, but he should be ready to resume dominating at all levels by the middle of 2018. Tommy John surgery has become so commonplace that there's little doubt Kaprielian still has ace of the staff potential. Cashman wasn't done, though. He also included outfielder Dustin Fowler in the trade for Gray, a very fast and quality center fielder, who performed well at AAA Scranton and has a swing identical to Dodgers second baseman Chase Utley, which is tailor made for Yankee Stadium. You're welcome, Billy Beane. Yes, Fowler had a terrible knee injury last month in the first inning of his major league debut and never even made it to bat for the Yankees. But Fowler, Mateo and Kaprielian are all very good players, and they all happen to be just 22 years old. You’d think the Yankees got Clayton Kershaw for the dynamic trio they shipped out. Nope, they got Gray. What a coup for Cashman! A 27-year-old, average to above average starter with a suspect injury history from a small market team is now in the Bronx. Gray was hot during his last six starts with Oakland, so to Cashman, he's Roger Clemens. A peek into Gray's recent history reveals who he's more likely to be. He was 5-11 with a 5.69 ERA in 2016. Quick, somebody get the Cy Young

This third chart shows production based on grouping. As swing rate decreases, walk rate increases while strikeout rate remains constant leading to a huge increase in wOBA not in play. This makes sense because called ball rate is increasing considerably while in play rate is decreasing as swing rate goes down resulting in more walks. Meanwhile, strike/foul rate decreasing suggests there should be fewer strikeouts while in play rate decreasing suggests there should be more strikeouts. It would seem these two factors cancel each other out.

In the world of major league baseball, the Oakland A’s defied the laws of baseball economics. The team spent only $34 million (the 2nd lowest payroll) had won 102 games and lost only 60 in 2001. On top of this, they finished first in their division and made the playoffs. Major baseball teams would hire high school players rather than college players. This made high school players costly. The Oakland A’s strategy is to hire college players to save on resources. They argued that college players have already gained substantial exposure and

Do Major League Baseball teams with higher salaries win more frequently than other teams? Although many people believe that the larger payroll budgets win games, which point does vary, depending on the situation. “…performances by individual players vary quite a bit from year to year, preventing owners from guaranteeing success on the field. Team spending is certainly a component in winning, but no team can buy a championship.” (Bradbury). For some, it’s hard not to root for the lower paid teams. If the big money teams, like Goliath, are always supposed to win, it’s hard not cheer for David. This paper will discuss the effects of payroll budgets on the percentage of wins for the 30 Major League