Throughout this assignment I have learned that there are many things that go into making a weather forecast. I realized that it takes a lot of research to precisely forecast the high and low temperatures as well as the weather and surface features for each day. There are a variety of models to choose from for weather forecasting, but I have to figure out which one was best based on my atmospheric situation.
Due to the fact that I live in Missouri I found it difficult to use some of the methods due to the fact that the weather is constantly changing. I originally thought I could use the Persistence Forecasting Model, but then I realized that the weather changes to often for it to be the same each day. It would have been a better option if we
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So I began to look up the long-term average of weather conditions for each day in order to predict the weather for the given day. Most of the time it was pretty precise but it could have been better.
Out of the six models I found the Numerical Model to be the best choices when creating a forecast since it seemed to be the most accurate, due to the fact that it measures uses calculations and takes into consideration the pressure, temperature, winds, humidity, clouds and precipitation. Out of all the numerical models I chose to specifically use the North American Mesoscale model (NAM) because it was specific for my atmospheric situation.
Despite using the models for forecasting, I learned you have to take into consideration the different surface features including the different types of fronts and pressure systems.
Overall, I have learned that being a meteorologist is not the path for me. The different models of forecasting are all very different and often hard to read. It takes a lot of time and patients to look through all the different models and understand them. I am a type of person who likes immediate answer and rather than having to go through multiple steps to figure out one
What are some of the methods used to study weather patterns? Do you think the data collected can help to predict future climatic conditions?
This is where it all starts. You absolutely must know the weather for each matchup on a
1. Explain how observed teleconnection patterns can help in the preparation of a seasonal weather forecast.
Highs, lows and a range of weather variables can be tracked for the past 25 days, months or years.
| "Dynamic models, usually computer-based, that allow the forecaster to make assumptions about the internal variables and external environment in the model" is a definition for which of the following forecasting methodologies?
So, you see the use of humectants and knowing the dew point on each day can reflect on what kind of hair day you will have. But, we get it, who has time to memorize dew points and check the weather before styling their hair?!
Weather is created by the movement of air masses of different temperature and moisture content moving around the Earth’s atmosphere and interacting with each other.
The NOAA’s long term plan is to engage in six major areas. The first being continue in conduct experiments for understanding the natural process of weather. Second is to build models to predict the effects and outcomes that may affect the world. Third and Fourth are coherent being use new observing technology for data to feed the models, and develop new forecasting tools for improving weather services. To share information to public, federal, and academic partners, and to prepare scientific assessments to enhance the public's knowledge and to inform if any governmental actions need to happen.(Goldman)
St. Louis falls into the mellow midlatitude atmosphere gathering, and this is a district loaded with air mass complexities (Hess, 2011). These differentiations cause a mixture of unsettling influences in the air leaving St. Louis with an assortment of climate (Hess, 2011). The summers have a tendency to have more precipitation with the coastal stream and incessant convection (Hess, 2011). However winter can encounter rain and periodic snow due to midlatitude typhoons (Hess, 2011).
Weather can play an enormous role in historical events that are remembered decades, and even centuries, after they happen. It can turn small events that would go unnoticed in history to events that are remembered as some of the most important in world history. Until relatively recently, when the Weather Bureau was formed in 1870, we lacked the capability to forecast the weather and prevent incidents like these (Robbins). Even though weather reporting from that moment on would become widespread across the country, it would not be enough to prevent disasters such as the Challenger disaster that rocked the country on a chilly day in 1986.
Many artists uses experiences from their own lives to create their arts. This form of art which is called therapeutic or catharsis allows the artist to investigate their pain and create a path to healing their wounds. This practice was both used by artists Vincent van Gogh and Louise Bourgeois. Van Gogh who uses his artwork to (which are often seen in a colorful scene) expresses his emotional pain. During his lifetime, Van Gogh went through many love affairs and bouts of depression which he often cope with through his artwork. In comparison, Louise Bourgeois known as the founder of confessional art use the trauma of her early life experience to create abstract sculpture. This sculptures draws viewer to her parental issues and psychological
Although meteorologist hardly acknowledge that their forecasts are not completely accurate, it is clear that without them the amount of harm would be great. The information of a possible tornado formation helps the public become prepared to the possibility of a tornado. Tornadoes warning systems have come a long way from the days where they were inaccurate and unreliable. Lead times have increased and are becoming more reliable. However, more sensitive technology is needed until forecasts can become more
The term sweatshop came from Britain in the mid-nineteenth century. According to Annie MacLean, the world’s first female sociologist, there were the workers who were “sweated” for their production of the goods; then, there were the employers, or “sweaters”, who profited directly off those goods (MacLean 1903). A sweatshop does not refer to an exact building/location or a certain demographic amongst the employees, but rather the environment in which employees must work. Shockingly low pay rates, filthy work atmospheres, and unconscionable working hours are the main conditions that characterize a sweatshop (Ross 2004). When Americans hear the word sweatshop, their heads go immediately to third world countries or places such
Regardless of healthcare and medical advances, birth outcome disparities continue to exist in the United States. In 2014, 1 out of 10 infant births were premature, correlating to over 380,000 infants born prematurely (Health 2016). The current national average for infant births before 37 weeks is 9.6% (Services 2010). Premature birth is identified as a birth that occurs before the 37- week gestation. During the preterm period, infants are placed at a high risk of death and developing disabilities that may cause permanent handicap. Mothers that give birth preterm may partake in risky behaviors such as smoking and drug usage, lack proper nutrition, and are burdened financially. Maternal education intervention programs centered around the Health Belief Model may have a positive impact on maternal care and prevent premature birth.
The atmosphere is a chaotic system, so small changes to one part of the system can grow to have large effects on the system as a whole. This makes it difficult to accurately predict weather more than a few days in advance, though weather forecasters are continually working to extend this limit through the scientific study of weather, meteorology. It is theoretically impossible to make useful day-to-day predictions more than about two weeks ahead, imposing an upper limit to potential for improved prediction skill.